2026-06-11 Четверг

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When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: A Review of 8 Failed Classic Crypto Metrics and the Structural Reasons Behind Them

Title: When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: 8 Failed Classic Crypto Indicators and Their Structural Causes The crypto market in early 2026 is marked by confusion as traditional on-chain and technical indicators have collectively failed. This analysis examines eight key metrics that have lost predictive power and explores the underlying structural market shifts causing their obsolescence. The core findings reveal that institutionalization has fundamentally altered market microstructure. Bitcoin ETF inflows created sustained demand, breaking the pure halving-driven narrative. The 2024 halving's supply reduction became negligible against Bitcoin's multi-trillion dollar market cap. This institutional participation smoothed volatility from over 100% to ~50%, preventing the extreme moves needed to trigger indicators like the Pi Cycle Top (relying on 111-day/350-day MA crossover) and Rainbow Chart (based on logarithmic growth curves). The MVRV Z-Score failed as institutional buying raised the realized value floor, compressing its historical range. The "altcoin season" never materialized because ETF flows went exclusively to Bitcoin, not rotating to altcoins, while AI and precious metals diverted capital from crypto overall. The Fear & Greed Index became unreliable as institutional flows decoupled from retail sentiment. The NVT ratio malfunctioned as on-chain volume no longer represented real economic activity. Finally, PlanB's S2F model failed spectacularly (predicting $500K vs. $120K actual) by ignoring demand-side variables and the impossibility of exponential growth at Bitcoin's current scale. Ultimately, these indicators failed because they relied on outdated assumptions: extreme volatility, retail-driven markets, and pure on-chain data analysis. The market has transitioned from a digital commodity to a macro asset influenced by Federal Reserve policy and global liquidity rather than just halving cycles. Investors must understand these structural changes rather than seeking new universal indicators.

marsbit02/19 03:50

When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: A Review of 8 Failed Classic Crypto Metrics and the Structural Reasons Behind Them

marsbit02/19 03:50

Duan Yongping, CZ, Mar-a-Lago... What Have Crypto KOLs Been Talking About in the Past 24 Hours?

Over the past 24 hours, Chinese crypto KOLs on X (formerly Twitter) have been actively discussing several key topics. Legendary investor Duan Yongping’s investment moves drew significant attention. His fund, H&H International Investment, held a portfolio worth approximately $17.5 billion at the end of 2025. In Q4, he made a major 11x increase in his Nvidia position, signaling strong confidence in AI computing demand. He also added to his holdings in Pinduoduo and Berkshire Hathaway, while reducing exposure to Apple, Alibaba, and Occidental Petroleum. A controversy emerged around Binance founder CZ (Changpeng Zhao) unfollowing a well-known KOL, "Enheng." Their relationship, which began with CZ helping Enheng profit in early 2025, reportedly soured due to the latter's "bootlicking" and other controversial actions, highlighting the fragile, interest-driven nature of relationships within the crypto circle. Amid the bear market, a common sentiment among discussions was the strategy of "buying when there is silence" and practicing dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into assets like Bitcoin. Many expressed belief that patience and faith in the long-term value of crypto would eventually be rewarded. Finally, the exclusive, invitation-only World Liberty Forum (WLFI) summit, held at Mar-a-Lago and supported by the Trump family, was a hot topic. High-profile attendees included executives from Goldman Sachs, Nasdaq, Coinbase, and Binance. The native token of the event's organizer, WLFI, surged over 22% following the news.

比推02/19 01:48

Duan Yongping, CZ, Mar-a-Lago... What Have Crypto KOLs Been Talking About in the Past 24 Hours?

比推02/19 01:48

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