# Supply Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Supply", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Where the AI Bubble Really Is: Which Layer of Players Are Naked

AI Bubble: Where It Really Is and Who's Swimming Naked This analysis dissects the AI industry not as a single entity but as a five-layer pyramid, arguing that bubbles are concentrated in specific tiers, not uniformly distributed. **Key Distinction from the 2000 Dot-com Bubble:** Unlike 2000, where companies had stock prices before revenue, today's leading AI players have massive, contract-backed revenue driving their valuations. Core infrastructure demand is real, with every GPU running at full capacity for paying customers. **The Five-Layer Pyramid & Bubble Assessment:** * **L0 (Fab/Manufacturing) & Top L4 (Leading AI Apps): NO BUBBLE.** Companies like TSMC, NVIDIA, major cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon), and top AI labs have real revenues and orders. Supply is tightly constrained by TSMC's disciplined capacity control and physical limits like power/land for data centers, preventing a supply glut. * **L1 (Memory): BATTLEGROUND.** Sky-high HBM margins could signal a new structural cycle or a classic "boom before bust." The oligopoly of three major players may enforce supply discipline, making this a high-stakes bet. * **L2 (Interconnect/Optical Modules): BUBBLE TERRITORY.** Companies like Lumentum and AAOI have seen stock surges (4-10x) far outpacing revenue growth. This hardware segment has lower physical barriers to expansion than fabs, allowing speculation. It mirrors the 2000 bubble's epicenter—optics. * **L3 (Infrastructure/"GPU Landlords"): VULNERABLE.** GPU leasing companies profit from the current compute shortage but own no long-term moat. Their business model relies on a temporary bottleneck that will ease as big tech expands and new tech (e.g., potential space-based data centers) emerges. * **L4 Long Tail (VC-backed Startups): STRONG BUBBLE SIGNALS.** VC funding concentration in AI is twice that of the 1999 peak. Many startups with little revenue use the valuation logic of successful giants to justify their own, creating high risk of a "valuation crunch" when funding dries up. **Critical Risks to Monitor:** 1. **GPU Depreciation & Accounting:** Companies extending the assumed useful life of GPUs artificially boost profits. The true economic life depends on future generational leaps from NVIDIA. 2. **"GPU Credit" & Off-Balance-Sheet Leverage:** Emerging structures where shell companies borrow to buy GPUs and lease them out (with chipmakers sometimes investing) move debt off major balance sheets. This echoes the "vendor financing" of 2000 and the securitization risks of 2008, though currently small-scale. 3. **TSMC Abandoning Caution:** If the primary supply bottleneck (TSMC's conservative capacity planning) breaks, runaway supply could trigger a bust. 4. **Algorithmic Efficiency Breakthrough:** A major leap in software efficiency could drastically reduce the need for raw compute hardware, undermining the investment thesis. **Conclusion:** The AI boom is expensive and has frothy areas, but its core is underpinned by real demand and physical supply constraints. The bubble risk is layered: most present in optical components, GPU leasing, and the long-tail startup ecosystem, while the foundational chip manufacturing and leading application layers remain relatively solid—for now.

marsbit06/04 10:20

Where the AI Bubble Really Is: Which Layer of Players Are Naked

marsbit06/04 10:20

Ethereum's Ballmer Moment: As Everyone Is Bearish, the Circulating Supply Is Disappearing

"Ethereum's Ballmer Moment: Circulation Shrinks Amid Bearish Sentiment" Amid widespread bearish sentiment, with prominent figures like Bankless founder David Hoffman selling ETH and young developers flocking to Solana, some argue Ethereum is entering its "Ballmer era"—akin to Microsoft's perceived stagnation under Steve Ballmer. While surface-level criticisms about slow protocol development, cautious leadership, and competitive pressure are valid, underlying fundamentals tell a different story. Approximately 30% of ETH is staked, major holders like BitMine are accumulating, and spot ETFs continue to absorb supply. Regulatory clarity, including the SEC/CFTC's March ruling on staking rewards and the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, is transforming crypto from a regulatory threat into a legitimized framework. This institutionalization, alongside a shrinking circulating supply (with net issuance around 0.23% annually), creates significant buy-side pressure independent of fee-based value capture. The broader crypto total addressable market is expanding through regulated stablecoins, tokenized assets, and institutional adoption. While public chains face competition from permissioned alternatives, the winning model appears to be permissioned assets settling on public chains like Ethereum and Solana. The author advocates a non-maximalist, barbell strategy: holding ETH for its institutional role and supply squeeze, SOL for consumer/throughput trends, BTC as a macro hedge, and a basket of next-gen L1s. Key bullish drivers for ETH include rapid circulation shrinkage, potential Q2 staked ETF approvals, regulatory tailwinds solidifying its role as a default settlement layer, and the optionality of an eventual "Satya moment" leadership shift. Despite bearish consensus, the current setup—where crypto is "not hot" and regulatory groundwork is being laid—presents a compelling investment opportunity. The crypto cycle's focus may have shifted to AI, but blockchain infrastructure is gaining a legal and institutional foothold precisely while attention is elsewhere.

marsbit06/04 02:56

Ethereum's Ballmer Moment: As Everyone Is Bearish, the Circulating Supply Is Disappearing

marsbit06/04 02:56

XRP Marks 14th Birthday While Ripple Expands DC Presence

XRP marked its 14th anniversary on June 2, with founders and the community celebrating its origins. The date commemorates a key 2012 code commit that established its fixed 100 billion token supply. Concurrently, Ripple announced an expansion of its Washington, D.C. office, emphasizing a commitment to engaging with U.S. policymakers and regulators on digital asset frameworks. The company aims to help shape policy around market structure, stablecoins, and financial innovation. XRP traded at $1.24 at the time of reporting.

bitcoinist06/03 16:32

XRP Marks 14th Birthday While Ripple Expands DC Presence

bitcoinist06/03 16:32

Bitcoin Could Benefit From A Global Debt Reckoning, Bitwise Argues

Bitwise argues that Bitcoin could benefit from a looming global debt crisis, with nearly $30 trillion in debt needing refinancing in 2026. The firm suggests that stress in sovereign bond markets, alongside potential central bank responses, could favor Bitcoin as an asset outside government balance sheets. Despite a recent pullback from above $83,000 to around $70,000 due to significant ETF outflows, Bitwise notes that long-term holding patterns are tightening Bitcoin's supply, with a record 73% of circulating BTC held by long-term investors. The report identifies key price levels, with $78,000-$80,000 as a critical zone to watch. Bitwise also posits that Bitcoin remains relatively cheap compared to major US tech stocks based on valuation metrics.

bitcoinist06/02 17:01

Bitcoin Could Benefit From A Global Debt Reckoning, Bitwise Argues

bitcoinist06/02 17:01

Ethereum Supply Becomes More Concentrated In Large Wallets, Here Are The Numbers

Recent on-chain data indicates a significant increase in Ethereum concentration among large wallet holders. Whale addresses holding at least 100,000 ETH now control 22.03% of the total supply, the highest level in ten weeks, representing approximately $35 billion in value. This trend points to aggressive accumulation by institutional players and whales, continuing despite recent market volatility and price declines. Supporting this shift, exchange reserves have been consistently declining, suggesting assets are being moved to cold storage for long-term holding. Market activity shows a surge in buy orders from these large holders, effectively absorbing selling pressure from retail investors. Notably, one whale recently opened a highly leveraged $25.6 million long position, signaling strong confidence albeit with substantial risk.

bitcoinist06/01 20:10

Ethereum Supply Becomes More Concentrated In Large Wallets, Here Are The Numbers

bitcoinist06/01 20:10

Wang Chuan: When the Neighbor Old Wang Made 30x on Memory Stocks, How to Avoid Anxiety (Part Six) - The Trap of Commoditized Goods

Wang Chuan: When the Neighbor Lao Wang Made 30x on Storage Stocks, How to Stay Anxiety-Free (Part 6) - The Trap of Commoditized Goods. This essay uses historical and current examples to analyze the cyclical and high-risk nature of the data storage industry. It begins with the 1990s rise and dramatic fall of Iomega, whose stock soared over 160x in 18 months before collapsing 97% from its peak, illustrating the fleeting success of storage "meme stocks." The core problem is that storage products, like DRAM and flash memory, are highly commoditized. This leads to extreme volatility: prices have plummeted over 80% multiple times, and company stocks often crash 95% or go bankrupt. The industry's dynamic is defined by "elastic demand facing heavy-asset, long-cycle, rigid supply." When demand spikes and supply is fixed, prices skyrocket, as seen recently with AI-driven demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). Companies like Sandisk and Micron have reported massive revenue and gross margin jumps (e.g., Sandisk's gross margin rising from 22.5% to 78.3%) despite minimal increases in production volume. However, these high margins are self-defeating. They incentivize massive new capacity investments (hundreds of billions planned from 2026), with supply expected to surge by late 2027. Once new supply meets demand, prices and profits will crash, potentially leading to a scenario where "selling more results in earning less." The article debunks the safety of long-term supply agreements, comparing them to fragile non-aggression pacts easily broken when market conditions shift. It warns that when an industry is highly profitable but trades at low P/E ratios, the risk is greatest, as plummeting prices quickly erase those earnings. Multiple asymmetric risks loom, including economic recession, reduced AI spending, faster-than-expected capacity expansion (especially from Chinese firms), and technological innovations that reduce memory requirements. In conclusion, the storage sector is a cyclical trap where periods of euphoric profits are often precursors to devastating downturns, luring unprepared investors into a "wealth incinerator."

marsbit06/01 07:13

Wang Chuan: When the Neighbor Old Wang Made 30x on Memory Stocks, How to Avoid Anxiety (Part Six) - The Trap of Commoditized Goods

marsbit06/01 07:13

Bitcoin Correction Pushes 580,000 BTC Into Loss Territory

Bitcoin's recent price correction has pushed a significant portion of its supply into loss. According to Glassnode data, the total amount of BTC held at a loss (Total Supply in Loss) has risen to 8.33 million. This marks an increase of 580,000 BTC, primarily due to the asset's decline from above $76,600 to around $73,000 in the latter half of May. This indicates that a substantial volume of coins changed hands within that price range. The analytics firm notes that these recently underwater holders could contribute to near-term sell pressure as they reassess their positions. While the network's state is still better than during February's sharper crash, the increased loss supply highlights the market's sensitivity to corrections. Bitcoin is currently trading near $73,200, down over 5% for the week.

bitcoinist05/30 05:01

Bitcoin Correction Pushes 580,000 BTC Into Loss Territory

bitcoinist05/30 05:01

Bitcoin Bulls Face Growing Market Headwinds

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $72,500, triggering $342 million in long liquidations. Analysts note mounting bearish pressure ahead of a $9 billion monthly options expiry, with put options significantly outnumbering calls. On-chain data reveals a worrying shift: large "whale" balances are stagnating or declining, while "dolphin" accumulation has slowed sharply—a pattern historically linked to sustained price weakness. The long-term holder supply has reached a record high, suggesting a lack of new buyers entering the market amid deteriorating macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.

TheNewsCrypto05/29 12:47

Bitcoin Bulls Face Growing Market Headwinds

TheNewsCrypto05/29 12:47

Major Bitcoin Players Drop Over A Billion In Sell-Offs While Euphoria Rocks Retail

Major Bitcoin holders engaged in significant sell-offs while retail sentiment remained bullish. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw over $1 billion in outflows across consecutive trading days, with its total holdings dropping from a peak near $75.5 billion in mid-May to below $67 billion by May 26. Simultaneously, a Satoshi-era miner moved 2,650 BTC (worth ~$203 million) to over-the-counter desks. Despite this substantial selling pressure from large wallets, Bitcoin's price held above $76,000, supported by apparent retail demand and "dip-buying" sentiment on social media, highlighting a current market divide between institutional actions and retail investor behavior.

bitcoinist05/27 21:31

Major Bitcoin Players Drop Over A Billion In Sell-Offs While Euphoria Rocks Retail

bitcoinist05/27 21:31

Trillion-Dollar Euphoria for Memory Sellers, Halved Profits for Memory Buyers

Title: The Trillion-Dollar Memory Seller's Carnival vs. The Buyer's Halved Profits On May 26, a stark contrast unfolded. While memory chipmaker Micron's market cap surged past $1 trillion, smartphone maker Xiaomi reported plummeting profits. Xiaomi's Q1 2026 profits fell 43% year-on-year. Executive Lu Weibing cited memory prices quadrupling from last year, adding roughly $210 to a phone's cost. To survive, Xiaomi is cutting entry-level models, sacrificing volume. Micron's stock, however, skyrocketed over 19% in a day, capping an 8x gain in a year. Major banks like UBS and JPMorgan issued bullish reports, raising price targets drastically. Their core thesis: Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) with AI cloud giants (Microsoft, Google, etc.) are eliminating the memory industry's notorious boom-bust cycle. By locking in fixed-price, multi-year contracts for AI-grade memory (HBM, server DDR5), these deals promise stable, utility-like earnings, justifying a higher valuation (20-30x P/E vs. the historical 8-15x). The article reveals a three-tiered memory market in 2026: 1) **AI Storage (HBM/DDR5/Enterprise SSD)**: Extreme shortage, soaring prices, LTAs. This is Micron's story. 2) **Mobile/Embedded Memory**: Also facing sharp price hikes as AI production crowds out capacity, severely pressuring phone makers like Xiaomi. 3) **PC Retail**: Some spot prices are falling due to channel inventory liquidation, creating a divergence from contract markets. The author questions if LTAs truly end the cycle. It hinges on sustained, hyper-growth AI demand. Micron's current profits are at a cycle peak, driven mostly by price hikes, not volume. If AI capital expenditure growth slows, the massive industry capacity expansion (e.g., Micron's $250B+ CapEx plan) could lead to a glut. Historically, using peak-cycle earnings for valuation is a classic trap. While the AI-driven structural shift might be real, the unanimous Wall Street euphoria warrants caution, echoing past bubbles like Cisco's in 2000. The memory seller's trillion-dollar狂欢 (carnival) continues, but the cycle's shadow remains.

链捕手05/27 11:48

Trillion-Dollar Euphoria for Memory Sellers, Halved Profits for Memory Buyers