# Supply Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Supply", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

DRAM ETF Issuer: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron All Surpass $1 Trillion, the AI Era of Memory Chips Has Only Just Begun

Authors: Dave Mazza, Thomas DiFazio | Source: Deep Tide TechFlow The article, written by Roundhill Investments (issuer of the DRAM ETF), responds to Morningstar's caution about investing in memory chip stocks. Morningstar warns of the sector's history of boom-bust cycles, a lack of economic moats, and potential momentum-driven overvaluation. Roundhill argues the current situation is structurally different due to AI. Key points in Roundhill's rebuttal include: * **Changed Demand & Supply Dynamics:** AI infrastructure, not consumer electronics, is now the primary growth driver for memory demand. New, strict long-term supply agreements with hyperscalers reflect the high capital intensity of advanced manufacturing. * **Existence of a Moat:** High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), essential for AI, has extremely high manufacturing barriers. The market is dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, with new entrants blocked by technological complexity and long lead times for equipment like ASML's EUV machines. * **Strong Fundamental Outlook:** Analyst consensus projects the three companies will rank among the world's most profitable by 2027, with combined profits of $704 billion on over $1 trillion in revenue. Their operating margins have already reached record highs. * **Valuation Re-rating:** Despite significant stock price gains, memory stocks trade at attractive valuations (e.g., a median NTM P/E of 8.37x for the DRAM ETF) relative to projected explosive EPS growth. Roundhill suggests historical valuation frameworks may no longer apply given the new profitability paradigm. Conclusion: Roundhill contends the rally is justified by fundamentals, marking a structural shift for the memory industry into a new era of sustained, AI-driven demand against constrained supply, rather than a repeat of past cycles.

marsbit06/24 09:06

DRAM ETF Issuer: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron All Surpass $1 Trillion, the AI Era of Memory Chips Has Only Just Begun

marsbit06/24 09:06

A 60-Day Window Depresses Oil Prices, So Why Is the Market Falling Instead?

International oil prices continued to decline on June 23, extending significant losses from the previous session. The market shifted focus from Middle East military risks to actual supply changes following a temporary U.S.-Iran arrangement. The immediate trigger was the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping chokepoint, with two tankers passing through, signaling eased near-term supply disruption fears. Prices retreated as the "worst-case scenario" was temporarily averted. A reported 60-day window in a U.S.-Iran understanding allows Iran to sell oil during this period, further dampening supply concerns. However, this arrangement is temporary, linked to nuclear talks, and does not guarantee a long-term solution. Market sentiment remains cautious because the deal could still unravel, potentially reinstating sanctions or disrupting shipping. While these developments have lowered immediate risk premiums, prices have not fully returned to pre-conflict levels. Geopolitical news, particularly regarding the stability of the Strait of Hormuz or the progress of negotiations, could quickly reverse the price drop. Additionally, low U.S. strategic petroleum reserves limit the emergency buffer available if supply shocks reemerge. Therefore, the current price decline reflects a reduction in near-term panic, not a complete elimination of Middle East supply risks.

marsbit06/23 05:46

A 60-Day Window Depresses Oil Prices, So Why Is the Market Falling Instead?

marsbit06/23 05:46

GPU Rental Prices Drop 30% in Three Weeks: AI Value Chain Migrating from Nvidia to Memory Chips

GPU rental prices for Nvidia's flagship B200 chip have fallen by approximately 30% over three weeks, dropping from a high of $6.11/hour to $4.22/hour. This decline signals a potential easing of the "compute scarcity" narrative that has long supported AI hardware valuations. Concurrently, the semiconductor market is witnessing a significant divergence: while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has risen 15% in the past month, with memory giants Micron and SanDisk each surging nearly 60%, Nvidia's stock has declined about 3% over the same period. Analysts suggest this shift indicates that the AI value chain's bottleneck and profits are migrating from compute (GPUs) to memory. Demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) remains intensely strong, with contract prices soaring over 100% in H1 2026, granting memory manufacturers significant pricing power. In contrast, increased B200 supply from improved manufacturing yields and competitive pressure from new cloud providers are softening GPU rental rates. While long-term contracts, like SpaceX's $30 billion deal with Google, show sustained large-scale demand for Nvidia hardware, the softening spot prices pressure the margins of cloud providers and could eventually impact Nvidia's order flow if chip prices don't adjust. The key takeaway for investors is not a weakening AI thesis, but a recalibration within the sector: pricing power appears to be strengthening for memory chipmakers while showing signs of strain for leading GPU suppliers.

marsbit06/23 05:18

GPU Rental Prices Drop 30% in Three Weeks: AI Value Chain Migrating from Nvidia to Memory Chips

marsbit06/23 05:18

Copper, the Gold of 2026

Copper: The New Gold for 2026? Market focus has shifted from AI chips to underlying infrastructure, with copper emerging as a key narrative. Its role is evolving beyond "Dr. Copper"—a traditional indicator of economic cycles—due to structural demand growth from AI data centers (requiring massive electrical infrastructure), grid expansion, EVs, and re-industrialization. Estimates suggest data centers alone could require 300,000 tons of copper by 2050. The core bullish thesis is not just demand but a severe supply constraint. New copper mines take ~17 years to develop, while ore grades are declining and new discoveries are scarce, potentially leading to a 30% supply deficit by 2035. This supply rigidity, coupled with strategic importance, is giving copper a "gold-like" scarcity narrative. Major macro investors, including Stanley Druckenmiller, are allocating to copper as a hedge against dollar weakness and for its exposure to energy transition and geopolitics. Traders like Pierre Andurand have projected prices could reach $40,000/ton. Capital inflows are visible in surging futures trading volumes. Copper mining stocks act as leveraged plays on copper prices. Companies like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO), as well as Chinese miners like CMOC, have seen significant volatility, offering high upside but also steep drawdowns, reflecting operational and geopolitical risks. While copper remains cyclical and won't fully replicate gold's monetary role, its long-term fundamentals have shifted. Its new scarcity premium, driven by a tightening supply structure and expanding electrical demand, suggests its "goldification" is just beginning.

marsbit06/16 03:09

Copper, the Gold of 2026

marsbit06/16 03:09

Four Questions on the Zcash Orchard Vulnerability: Was It Exploited? Can Funds Be Recovered? Is the Supply Verifiable? And Are There Others?

Zcash Orchard Bug: Four Key Questions Answered A critical forgery vulnerability was discovered in Zcash's Orchard privacy pool, raising four major concerns for users. 1. **Was the Orchard bug exploited?** The likelihood is considered low. The bug was found proactively using advanced AI-assisted tools and was promptly patched, limiting any potential attack window. If exploitation had occurred, evidence would likely have surfaced by now. 2. **Can legitimate Orchard funds be recovered?** It is believed so, based on the assessment that the bug was not exploited. If forgery did happen, existing "turnstile" mechanisms could prevent full recovery of legitimate funds if forged coins were moved out first, though this scenario is deemed unlikely. Users can choose to move funds, but this carries risks like loss of privacy or new wallet/software issues. 3. **Can users verify Zcash's total supply?** Currently, no. The vulnerability's prior existence prevented independent verification of the shielded supply. The proposed "Ironwood" network upgrade will restore this ability by sealing the Orchard pool, allowing anyone running a node to verify that the circulating ZEC does not exceed the correct amount. 4. **Are there other forgery bugs?** Ongoing intensive audits by multiple teams, including AI-assisted analysis, have not found additional forgery vulnerabilities, increasing confidence that none remain. Further work and collaborations are planned to provide additional guarantees. In conclusion, while the team assesses that exploitation was unlikely and the supply is safe, the upcoming upgrade is critical to restore users' ability to independently verify Zcash's supply integrity, moving away from reliance on trust.

marsbit06/15 07:50

Four Questions on the Zcash Orchard Vulnerability: Was It Exploited? Can Funds Be Recovered? Is the Supply Verifiable? And Are There Others?

marsbit06/15 07:50

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