# Supply Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Supply", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

ChangXin Technology: A Cyclical Stock Standing Atop the Cycle Peak

Changxin Technology: A Cyclical Stock at the Peak On July 27, 2026, Changxin Technology topped the A-share market with a market capitalization of 3.28 trillion yuan, surging 465% on its first trading day. The company, which lost 16.3 billion yuan in 2023, reported an estimated net profit of 50-57 billion yuan for the first half of 2026. Its dramatic reversal mirrors the volatile DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) cycle. The DRAM industry is inherently cyclical, with booms and busts every 3-4 years. This is due to product standardization and a significant time lag in supply adjustment. When prices rise, manufacturers expand capacity, but new production takes 2-3 years to come online, often leading to oversupply and price crashes when demand cools. Changxin's performance perfectly tracks this cycle. It recorded deep losses in 2023-2024 during the industry downturn, turned its first annual profit in 2025, and saw profits skyrocket in Q1 2026. This surge is primarily price-driven. The AI boom has led major players like Samsung and SK Hynix to shift 70-80% of new capacity to high-margin HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), creating a severe shortage and price explosion in general-purpose DRAM markets where Changxin competes. However, a massive global capacity expansion is underway. The top three manufacturers have announced nearly $70 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. Changxin itself plans to expand from three to seven 12-inch wafer fabs. This investment will translate into significant new supply in 2-3 years. While DRAM prices are expected to remain high through 2026-2027, price growth is already slowing, and a potential downturn is forecast for around 2028 as new capacity ramps up. A key challenge for Changxin is catching up in the critical HBM segment. While it has delivered HBM3 samples, leaders are already mass-producing more advanced HBM3E. Success in HBM is crucial for gaining true cyclical resilience. In conclusion, Changxin is a commendable company that has broken foreign monopolies in DRAM. Its long-term growth narrative—driven by import substitution and AI—is valid. Yet, its current valuation of 5-6x forward P/E, typical for a cyclical stock at its peak, suggests much future growth is already priced in. AI may extend the current cycle but cannot eliminate the industry's inherent volatility. For investors, the critical question is preparedness for the inevitable downturn when the cycle turns.

marsbit07/29 03:06

ChangXin Technology: A Cyclical Stock Standing Atop the Cycle Peak

marsbit07/29 03:06

Calm Before the Surge? Experts Declare Market Caution Amidst Active Whale Accumulation

Analytical platforms Glassnode and Santiment have published reviews on the current state of the cryptocurrency market. Experts note cautious consolidation amidst positive on-chain signals, while institutional and derivatives market activity remains restrained. According to Glassnode, despite a pullback from near $66,700 to $64,000, Bitcoin continues to trade within an established range. The derivatives market shows a more cautious approach, with funding rates for long positions declining significantly, indicating reduced leverage usage. Regulated investment products have seen net outflows, and weekly trading volumes have decreased. Overall, the market is described as being in a calm transitional phase, supported by stable coin holding but constrained by cautious spot and derivatives activity. Meanwhile, Santiment data reveals that large market participants, or "whales," are actively accumulating Bitcoin, adding 19,696 BTC over eight days. In contrast, activity from the smallest retail wallets is decreasing. This shift of coins to stronger hands is viewed as a positive signal. Additional analysis from CryptoQuant's Maartunn indicates that 374,000 BTC have moved from short-term to long-term holders, statistically reducing the likelihood of near-term sales and decreasing Bitcoin's liquid supply on the market.

cryptonews.ru07/28 09:06

Calm Before the Surge? Experts Declare Market Caution Amidst Active Whale Accumulation

cryptonews.ru07/28 09:06

Attention! Tomorrow: An Altcoin Will Receive a Major Update! It Has Been Heavily Criticized

The privacy-focused cryptocurrency project Zcash is preparing to activate its network upgrade NU6.3, codenamed Ironwood, on July 28, 2026. The upgrade will be deployed on the mainnet at block height 3,428,143. Ironwood will introduce a new shielded transaction pool and a v6 transaction format to the Zcash network. Key features include "confidential recoveries," designed as a safeguard against future quantum computing risks, and a "turnstile" mechanism. This mechanism aims to strengthen verification of the total $ZEC supply, addressing previous criticism and concerns about a potential vulnerability in the old Orchard pool that could have allowed counterfeit $ZEC creation. The goal is to enforce stricter control over supply stability when funds are moved to the new pool. The activation height in the test network was previously set at block 4,134,000.

cryptonews.ru07/27 18:30

Attention! Tomorrow: An Altcoin Will Receive a Major Update! It Has Been Heavily Criticized

cryptonews.ru07/27 18:30

Zcash Developers Recommend Upgrading Nodes to Ironwood Fork

The Zcash Foundation has released Zebra 6.0.0 and recommends all node operators upgrade to the Ironwood fork. This update introduces a new shielded pool and version 6 transaction format. The change was prompted by a vulnerability discovered in the old Orchard pool that could have allowed an attacker to create counterfeit $ZEC undetected. Developers patched the vulnerability in June, finding no evidence of exploitation, though Zcash's privacy architecture prevents absolute certainty. Ironwood utilizes the Orchard action structure and Halo2 proof system. It adds a separate note commitment tree, a nullifier set, a network value pool, and network history data. After activation, nodes can track the new pool independently from Orchard. Zebra also updates node commands for operators to verify pool and commitment tree states. This upgrade is critical, as older software will not follow the correct chain post-activation. Ironwood's key protection mechanism is a "turnstile" between the Orchard and new pools. Once activated, Orchard will stop accepting new outputs and internal transfers. Funds can be withdrawn, but an accounting rule prevents withdrawing more $ZEC from Orchard than was legitimately deposited. This design allows public auditing of the circulating supply without revealing private balances or transaction details, with any excess capital becoming locked inside Orchard. Zcash had scheduled this hardfork for July 28 after developers confirmed the patched bug raised inflation concerns.

cryptonews.ru07/27 16:36

Zcash Developers Recommend Upgrading Nodes to Ironwood Fork

cryptonews.ru07/27 16:36

Crystal Foresight Stablecoin Industry Report: What Drove the Q2 2026 Decline in Stablecoin Supply

Stablecoin total supply declined by approximately $115 billion (-3.6%) over 90 days, falling from a May high of $3.2 trillion to $3.065 trillion in July 2026. This marks the first quarterly contraction since late 2023. The decline was highly concentrated: USDC (-$5.8B), USDe (-$2.0B), USDS (-$2.0B), USDT (-$1.4B), and PYUSD (-$1.2B) accounted for nearly all net outflows. Gold-backed tokens PAXG and XAUt also declined, primarily due to a drop in gold prices, a separate dynamic from dollar-pegged stablecoins. A core finding is that each stablecoin's decline had distinct drivers tied to its primary use case ("transfer fingerprint"): - **USDC** (dominant use: DeFi collateral) contracted due to cooling DeFi activity. - **USDe & USDS** (yield-bearing stablecoins) shrank as underlying protocols (Ethena, Sky) reduced yields, prompting redemptions. - **USDT** (payments/trading) saw a marginal, strategic reduction linked to European exchange delistings, not yield pressure. - **PYUSD** dropped amid regulatory uncertainty and a strategic refocus by PayPal. Some growth occurred (USDG, DAI, etc.), but it was far smaller than the outflows. The report concludes the decline is largely linked to reduced yields and DeFi cycles, not a loss of confidence or de-pegs. A reversal is possible if on-chain yields improve. Future signals will be found in "yield fingerprints" and "collateral fingerprints," not just headline supply figures.

链捕手07/27 10:02

Crystal Foresight Stablecoin Industry Report: What Drove the Q2 2026 Decline in Stablecoin Supply

链捕手07/27 10:02

BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’

Bitcoin's overall supply in profit has rebounded sharply, approaching 60% in late July from a 2026 low near 46% in June. However, analysis from CryptoQuant cautions that this recovery remains fragile and not yet a confirmed bull market signal. For a sustained market bottom, key metrics require stronger confirmation: the 30-day average of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must stay above 1, and the supply in profit should exceed 64%. The market has already seen one false breakout in April-June where these conditions briefly met before rolling back over. Currently, the LTH-SOPR average has been below 1 for over 50 days, indicating long-term holders are still moving coins at an aggregate loss—a potential sign of lingering capitulation. While hitting the 50% supply-in-loss mark in June aligned with historical bear market bottoms, the current recovery in profitability lacks the durable onchain support from long-term holders needed to confirm a full trend reversal.

cointelegraph07/27 09:28

BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’

cointelegraph07/27 09:28

Ethereum validator exit queue drops to zero – Will it boost ETH’s Q3 recovery?

The Ethereum validator exit queue has fallen to zero, eliminating any waiting time for withdrawals. This contrasts sharply with late last year's market crash, which saw a peak of 2.6M ETH waiting to exit with a 44-day delay. Meanwhile, the entry queue for new stakers remains significant, with approximately 2.5M ETH waiting to enter and a 44-day processing time. This imbalance indicates strong, long-term staking demand and supports tighter ETH supply dynamics, with the staking ratio hitting a record 33.97% of total supply. Additional demand is driven by the U.S. spot ETH ETF inflows and institutional activity. Option market data shows dominant bullish bets targeting $2K and $2.4K price levels. While ETH's price has risen towards $2K, its near-term movement is tied to the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, with regulatory developments remaining a key catalyst for Q3.

ambcrypto07/24 08:09

Ethereum validator exit queue drops to zero – Will it boost ETH’s Q3 recovery?

ambcrypto07/24 08:09

How 40.8M staked ETH could strengthen Ethereum’s edge over Bitcoin

Ethereum is showing signs of strengthening against Bitcoin, driven by two key trends. First, significant whale accumulation is occurring, with large holders not just buying ETH but immediately staking 100% of it. This locks away supply, signaling long-term conviction. Ethereum's total staked ETH has reached a record 40.8 million, with a growing entry queue and 33.5% of supply now staked, further tightening liquid availability. Second, Ethereum's DeFi ecosystem is experiencing robust activity, with WETH whale transactions at a multi-year high and Total Value Locked (TVL) rising sharply. These converging factors—reduced supply from staking and increased on-chain demand—are translating into technical strength. The ETH/BTC ratio has broken above resistance and is approaching the 0.03 level, setting the stage for potential continued outperformance against Bitcoin.

ambcrypto07/21 16:04

How 40.8M staked ETH could strengthen Ethereum’s edge over Bitcoin

ambcrypto07/21 16:04

Fixed Supply + Institutional Frenzy, After Bitcoin's 50% Plunge, Will It Replicate Gold's 'Explosive' Run from 20 Years Ago?

"Fixed Supply & Institutional Craze: Bitcoin's Potential to Mirror Gold's 'Explosive' Price Rally of Two Decades Ago After a 50% Crash?" Despite a challenging period in 2026 where Bitcoin fell over 50% from its late 2025 peak above $126,000, analysts see potential for a turnaround, drawing parallels to gold's performance after the launch of its ETFs. Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests Bitcoin ETFs could follow a "roadmap" similar to gold ETFs over the past 22 years. Since their 2004 debut, gold ETFs have seen dramatic surges, painful drawdowns, and recoveries, ultimately driving gold's market capitalization near $28 trillion. Both assets are non-yielding stores of value driven purely by investor sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in early 2024, rapidly became among the fastest-growing ETFs ever, marking Bitcoin's move into mainstream finance. However, this also introduced significant volatility, with concerns about potential large-scale ETF outflows interrupting rebounds. For instance, BlackRock's IBIT, a leading Bitcoin ETF, has sold nearly 100,000 Bitcoin recently to meet redemptions, though it still holds over 733,000. The core parallel lies in fixed supply meeting surging, albeit fickle, institutional demand. Balchunas notes that both gold and Bitcoin experienced explosive price moves when demand concentrated, but such demand often comes in waves. Industry observers believe Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative, bolstered by halving cycles and growing institutional adoption through ETFs, supports long-term bullish prospects. While the path will be volatile, if Bitcoin captures even a fraction of gold's role as a store of value, its upside potential remains substantial.

marsbit07/21 10:26

Fixed Supply + Institutional Frenzy, After Bitcoin's 50% Plunge, Will It Replicate Gold's 'Explosive' Run from 20 Years Ago?

marsbit07/21 10:26

‘40% of long-term supply under loss’ – Why Fidelity foresees Bitcoin cycle bottom

Bitcoin is showing signs of potentially forming a market cycle bottom, according to Fidelity. Analyst Zack Wainwright notes that long-term holders now possess a near-record 15 million BTC, with over 40% of this supply held at a loss—a level historically associated with bottoming phases. Data shows the supply in loss recently climbed to 50% as Bitcoin fell below $63,000, mirroring patterns seen at past cycle lows like the 2022 bottom near $16,000. However, recovery may face headwinds. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF demand remains muted, with significant institutional outflows persisting, particularly from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity. Analysts suggest any sustained price recovery requires a reversal in this institutional selling pressure. Options market activity reflects caution, with high trading volumes for put options (bearish bets) targeting $62.5K and $56K, indicating hedging against further downside. While there is also call option interest at higher prices, signaling potential for a sideways range between $55K and $70K, the overall sentiment suggests $60K is a critical support level. Analysts warn that despite bottoming signals, sharp moves below $60K are possible amid ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.

ambcrypto07/17 07:44

‘40% of long-term supply under loss’ – Why Fidelity foresees Bitcoin cycle bottom