# Risk Assets Related Articles

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Highest Interest Rate in 30 Years! With the Bank of Japan's Gradual Hawkish Signals, Where Are Risk Assets Headed?

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19, 2025, marking the highest level since 1995 and its second hike this year. The unanimous decision was widely anticipated by markets. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized a data-dependent approach to future hikes, noting that rates remain below neutral levels. Market reaction was muted: USD/JPY rose slightly, Japanese government bond yields edged up, the Nikkei 225 gained, and Bitcoin surpassed $87,000. Strong economic fundamentals supported the move, including persistent inflation above the 2% target and robust wage growth. Analysts are divided on the timing of further hikes, with some expecting another increase in mid-2026. The end of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy may signal a turning point for global liquidity, potentially impacting risk assets. The yen carry trade, a key source of cheap funding for global investments, could unwind gradually, increasing volatility in equities and cryptocurrencies. While some fear significant market corrections, others argue that expectations are already priced in. The BOJ may also begin unwinding its ETF holdings as early as 2026, adding to potential market pressure.

marsbit12/19 09:21

Highest Interest Rate in 30 Years! With the Bank of Japan's Gradual Hawkish Signals, Where Are Risk Assets Headed?

marsbit12/19 09:21

Crypto Market Macro Report: Liquidity Repricing Amid Fed Rate Cuts, BOJ Rate Hikes, and the Christmas Holiday

The Federal Reserve's anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut on December 11 did not signal a shift toward monetary easing. Instead, the Fed's hawkish forward guidance—indicating fewer future cuts and internal dissent among policymakers—suggested constrained future policy flexibility. This led to a "sell the news" reaction, with risk assets like U.S. equities and cryptocurrencies declining as markets repriced expectations for liquidity. Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 0.75% on December 19, a move that threatens the long-standing yen carry trade. Higher Japanese rates could trigger unwinding of global leveraged positions, causing broad-based selling in risk assets, including crypto, due to increased funding costs and currency risk. These events coincide with the Christmas holiday period, when reduced liquidity amplifies market volatility. The convergence of tighter Fed expectations, BOJ tightening, and seasonal illiquidity creates a fragile environment for crypto, prompting a recalibration of risk rather than a trend reversal. Investors should prioritize risk management amid heightened macro uncertainty.

marsbit12/18 08:12

Crypto Market Macro Report: Liquidity Repricing Amid Fed Rate Cuts, BOJ Rate Hikes, and the Christmas Holiday

marsbit12/18 08:12

The Stronger the Consensus, the Greater the Risk: The Market Is 'Eerily Quiet' Amid Rate Cut Expectations

In the context of the upcoming Fed rate decision, market consensus strongly expects a 25 basis point cut, with over 85% probability priced in. However, this high level of agreement means the actual rate cut may not significantly move markets, as it has already been anticipated. The real focus is on the Fed’s forward guidance, particularly the "dot plot" showing policymakers' interest rate projections for 2026. The Fed faces unusual uncertainty due to a recent government shutdown, which delayed key inflation data (CPI) for October and November. This lack of recent data may lead to more ambiguous signals from the Fed, increasing potential market volatility. Three scenarios are outlined: 1. **Baseline (most likely)**: The Fed cuts rates as expected and maintains previous guidance, resulting in minimal market reaction. 2. **Dovish**: The Fed signals more rate cuts in 2026 than previously indicated, potentially boosting risk assets like Bitcoin and equities. 3. **Hawkish**: The Fed emphasizes persistent inflation and limited future cuts, which could strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto and other risk assets. The article’s key argument is that high consensus often implies higher risk, as markets are driven by surprises relative to expectations. Investors are advised to focus on managing position risks amid elevated uncertainty rather than betting on specific outcomes.

比推12/10 05:58

The Stronger the Consensus, the Greater the Risk: The Market Is 'Eerily Quiet' Amid Rate Cut Expectations

比推12/10 05:58

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