# Fed Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fed", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Full Debut Q&A! Fed Chair Wash: Firmly Adhering to 2% Inflation Target, Establishing Five Special Task Forces, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first FOMC press conference, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% and emphasizing the Committee's unanimous and explicit commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target. Key announcements included significant changes to Fed communication and operations. The policy statement was significantly shortened and, notably, forward guidance was removed. Chair Warsh broke from precedent by declining to submit his own economic forecasts and "dot plot." He announced the immediate formation of five special working groups focusing on: Fed communication, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and employment (including AI's impact), and the inflation framework. These groups, which will include external experts, are tasked with recommending improvements by year-end. One key group will review the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to assess the roles of interest rates versus balance sheet tools in monetary policy. Warsh characterized the current restrictive stance of policy as "uneven," noting its effect on housing but questioning its impact on financial markets where conditions appear less restrictive. He expressed a desire to move away from a "Fed-speak" driven market, arguing that markets should react to economic data rather than Fed commentary to provide better informational signals. On inflation, he stated there is no need to reconsider the 2% target until the Fed re-establishes its commitment and capability to achieve it. Economic projections (SEP) from other officials showed a split on the rate outlook for 2024, with half expecting at least one hike and half forecasting unchanged or lower rates. The median projection saw the federal funds rate at 3.8% by year-end 2024. Following the announcements, risk assets sold off sharply, Treasury yields rose, and the dollar strengthened.

marsbit06/18 02:18

Full Debut Q&A! Fed Chair Wash: Firmly Adhering to 2% Inflation Target, Establishing Five Special Task Forces, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

marsbit06/18 02:18

Full First Q&A! Fed Chair Warsh: Sticks to 2% Inflation Target, Establishes Five Special Working Groups, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held its first FOMC meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The central bank issued a significantly shortened policy statement, explicitly removing forward guidance. Chair Warsh delivered a strong, unified commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target, stating the FOMC has the "capability and the commitment" to restore price stability and sees no need to review the target itself at this time. Warsh announced the immediate formation of five special working groups to examine and propose improvements in key areas by year-end: Fed communication, the balance sheet (including a review of the $6.7 trillion portfolio and its role in policy), data sources and methodology, productivity and employment (including AI's impact), and the inflation framework. In a break from tradition, Chair Warsh did not submit his own economic projections or "dot plot." The submitted Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a split among other officials: half anticipate at least one rate hike this year, while half expect rates to remain steady or fall. The median projection sees the federal funds rate at 3.8% by year-end 2026. Warsh characterized the current policy stance as "uneven," noting restrictive effects in sectors like housing but less so in financial markets. He emphasized a desire to move away from a market dynamic overly focused on Fed signaling, advocating for markets to react more to economic data. On AI, he called it potentially the most significant economic change in his adult life, driving clear demand but with uncertain timing and scale on the supply side, creating a "race" between the two.

链捕手06/18 02:16

Full First Q&A! Fed Chair Warsh: Sticks to 2% Inflation Target, Establishes Five Special Working Groups, Personally Did Not Submit Dot Plot

链捕手06/18 02:16

Warsh's Debut Takes Shape: The Dot Plot Remains, but the Fed May Have Changed

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected in its June meeting, the first under new Chair Warsh. While the key dot plot of rate projections remained, Warsh notably did not submit his own forecast, signaling a deliberate move to weaken its forward guidance role. He emphasized a data-dependent approach, refusing to provide clear future policy signals and advocating for more restrained communication. The market interpreted this shift as heightening inflation constraints and the possibility of more aggressive tightening. Consequently, market pricing quickly adjusted: rate hike expectations for later in the year increased, U.S. stocks sold off, and the dollar strengthened. Warsh's debut suggests a fundamental change in Fed communication—moving away from "explaining the future" to merely "describing current assessments"—which could force markets to fundamentally reprice assets in a less predictable policy environment.

Odaily星球日报06/18 02:00

Warsh's Debut Takes Shape: The Dot Plot Remains, but the Fed May Have Changed

Odaily星球日报06/18 02:00

Market Trends in US Stocks (June 18): Walsh's Pivot Ignites Broad Sell-Off, SpaceX Suffers First Drop, Semiconductors Sole Safe Haven

**U.S. Market Trends (June 18): Wash Sparks Full-Scale Sell-off; SpaceX's First Drop, Semiconductors the Only Safe Haven** Markets plunged after the June FOMC meeting. The "dot plot" revealed a hawkish shift, with half the officials projecting at least one rate hike in 2024. New Fed Chair Wash, in his press conference, announced the abandonment of forward guidance, stating he "can't tell you what the next step will be." This policy uncertainty triggered a broad sell-off. All major indices fell over 1%, with the S&P 500 down 1.21%. The VIX volatility index jumped 12%. Treasury yields spiked, and the dollar surged to a two-month high, while gold erased its weekly gains. The sell-off was led by rate-sensitive sectors. Meta plunged over 5%, leading the Magnificent 7 lower. SpaceX closed down ~5%, marking its first decline since its IPO, as valuation pressure from higher rate expectations took hold. The sole market bright spot was semiconductors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.38%, with Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Arm Holdings all posting significant gains. The narrative held that long-term AI computing demand remains intact, driving a rotation of funds from high-valuation software/internet stocks into infrastructure and equipment names. Retail sales data came in strong, and EIA crude inventories fell sharply, supporting the view of persistent inflation and limiting the Fed's scope for easing. Traders fully priced in a rate hike by October, with September seen as likely. In summary, Chair Wash's debut dismantled the market's traditional policy anchors, injecting new uncertainty. While the AI investment thesis provided pockets of resilience in semiconductors, the repricing of rate-sensitive, high-valuation technology stocks appears to have just begun under the new "hawkish reset" framework.

marsbit06/18 01:12

Market Trends in US Stocks (June 18): Walsh's Pivot Ignites Broad Sell-Off, SpaceX Suffers First Drop, Semiconductors Sole Safe Haven

marsbit06/18 01:12

Conversation with Arthur Hayes: AI Has Drained Market Liquidity, BTC Will Be Below 100k by Year-End

In this June 2026 podcast interview, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explains his decision to sell his major crypto holdings (HYPE, NEAR, Worldcoin, Zcash). His rationale is based on a macro view linking oil prices, the Iran conflict, US politics, and an impending AI bubble burst. Hayes argues that high oil prices, driven by the ongoing war, will pressure domestic US inflation. To salvage the Republican Party's chances in the midterm elections, he believes Donald Trump may pivot to a populist, anti-AI stance—advocating for taxes and regulation—which would deflate the AI investment narrative. He sees the AI sector, particularly massive capital expenditure on data centers, as having absorbed nearly all excess market liquidity (around $1.5 trillion in debt issuance since 2025), starving other assets like Bitcoin. He highlights the upcoming SpaceX IPO at a ~$1.8 trillion valuation and 100x price-to-sales ratio as a potential tipping point. If these hyped IPOs underperform, it could shatter market confidence in AI. In such a scenario, all risk assets, including crypto, would fall together as correlations converge to 1 during a broad correction. Hayes has moved his portfolio into Treasuries and energy stocks (like ExxonMobil), predicting Bitcoin will be below $100k by year-end. He sees a potential crypto bull market only after the AI frenzy cools, liquidity stops flowing exclusively into AI, and possibly after a significant market downturn prompts new monetary stimulus.

marsbit06/17 06:23

Conversation with Arthur Hayes: AI Has Drained Market Liquidity, BTC Will Be Below 100k by Year-End

marsbit06/17 06:23

Fed's Internal Doves Flock to Hawkish Stance, Warsh's Debut "Between a Rock and a Hard Place"

U.S. Federal Reserve officials who previously advocated for rate cuts, including Governor Christopher Waller, have recently shifted their stance, with many now not ruling out the possibility of future rate hikes. This sets a challenging stage for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting. Appointed by President Trump based on his dovish views, Warsh now faces a committee where the debate has pivoted from "when to cut" to "whether to hike," driven by persistent inflation above 3%, a strong labor market, and supply-side pressures from AI infrastructure demands and geopolitical tensions. Key figures illustrate the shift. Governor Waller, once concerned about employment, now says data has pushed him toward considering rate increases. Even moderate voices like Governor Lisa Cook, while expecting inflation to ease, have indicated readiness to hike if it fails to do so. Long-time hawks such as regional Fed presidents Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan, and Neel Kashkari have grown more vocal, arguing that the real policy rate is effectively falling and that action may soon be needed. The upcoming Fed meeting is expected to keep rates steady but will likely remove the "easing bias" from its statement, signaling a neutral stance between cuts and hikes. The quarterly "dot plot" is anticipated to show most officials projecting no cuts this year, with some potentially indicating hikes. Chair Warsh, a critic of the Fed's reliance on forward guidance like the dot plot, must navigate communicating this pivot using tools he has questioned, all while steering policy in a direction counter to the preferences of the president who appointed him. The consensus suggests the Fed's next move could well be a rate increase.

marsbit06/17 05:21

Fed's Internal Doves Flock to Hawkish Stance, Warsh's Debut "Between a Rock and a Hard Place"

marsbit06/17 05:21

Hormuz Strait Reopening: Will the Fed Turn "Dovish" and the Market Reprice "Rate Cuts"?

The article outlines two key factors that may lead the U.S. Federal Reserve, under Chair Wash, to adopt a more dovish stance at the upcoming FOMC meeting. First, the anticipated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to ease oil and energy prices, thereby reducing upward inflationary pressures. This shift could lead the Fed to view energy prices as a neutral or even deflationary factor. Second, recent core CPI data showed significant cooling, with a monthly increase of only 0.21%, contrasting with the still-strong core PCE. This divergence supports a dovish interpretation. Market implications are significant. While the FOMC is expected to remove "easing bias" language and project unchanged rates for the year—moves already priced in—Chair Wash's potential for more dovish commentary presents an upside risk. Consequently, there is room for the market to further price out remaining hike expectations and increase expectations for rate cuts. The report notes that the 2-year Treasury yield, though down recently, remains well above February levels, indicating further potential downside as inflation risks fade.

marsbit06/16 03:04

Hormuz Strait Reopening: Will the Fed Turn "Dovish" and the Market Reprice "Rate Cuts"?

marsbit06/16 03:04

As the US and Japan Hike Interest Rates, Which Asset Class is Most at Risk?

This week, global markets face two major events: the Bank of Japan's likely interest rate hike and the US Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. For risk assets, it is a pivotal and volatile week. In the US, expectations for rate cuts have faded dramatically. May's higher-than-expected CPI and resilient jobs data have shifted the Fed's focus from potential cuts to the possibility of future hikes. New Fed Chair Wash is unlikely to raise rates at this meeting, but any hawkish shift in communication, the dot plot, or the policy statement could lead markets to price in tighter policy, pushing up short-term Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar. High-valuation growth stocks, AI-related assets, and small-cap stocks reliant on cheap funding are most vulnerable to rising rates. In Japan, a 25 basis point hike is almost fully priced in (98.3% probability), which would bring the policy rate to 1%, its highest since 1995. The concern is not the hike itself, but its potential to unwind the massive "carry trade," where investors borrowed low-yielding yen to invest globally. Historically, Japan's rate hikes have coincided with global market stress (2000, 2007, 2024). While this well-telegraphed hike may be digested smoothly, two key factors increase uncertainty: 1) Governor Ueda's absence due to illness, putting communication in the hands of less-familiar deputies, and 2) the Fed meeting occurring just days later, creating potential for a compounded market reaction if both central banks sound hawkish. Asset implications: * **Bonds:** US short-term yields sensitive to Fed signals. Japan's rate hike could pressure its massive US Treasury holdings. * **Currencies:** Dollar likely supported by Fed; Yen's reaction hinges on BoJ's forward guidance. * **Equities:** US growth stocks, small-caps most at risk. Japanese stocks face pressure from a stronger yen. * **Crypto:** Assets like Bitcoin face headwinds from higher rates and tighter liquidity; high-beta altcoins are even more vulnerable. The convergence of these two central bank meetings amplifies market volatility risks, with potential spillovers across asset classes globally.

marsbit06/16 02:58

As the US and Japan Hike Interest Rates, Which Asset Class is Most at Risk?

marsbit06/16 02:58

US Stock Market Trend (June 16): SpaceX Rises 42% in Two Days, New Fed Chairman Takes Office Today

**U.S. Stocks Trend (June 16): SpaceX Soars 42% in Two Days, New Fed Chair Takes Office Today** Markets surged on Monday following former President Trump's social media announcement of a completed U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pending a June 19 signing. The news triggered a broad risk-on rally: oil prices crashed, tech stocks soared, bond yields fell, and defensive sectors lagged. **Market Performance:** The Nasdaq jumped 3.07%, led by semiconductor stocks like Micron (+9.2%). The S&P 500 gained 1.65%, and the Dow rose 0.92% to a record high. However, the Russell 2000 small-cap index underperformed (+0.72%). SpaceX continued its hot streak, rising another 5% pre-market after disclosures of large buys by an Australian billionaire and Cathie Wood's ARK. Boeing also rallied on the transportation optimism. Conversely, energy stocks like Chevron fell over 3% on the oil price plunge, with other defensive sectors also selling off. The day's action showed a clear rotation of funds from energy/defensive plays into AI and tech narratives. **Macro & Outlook:** The VIX fear index fell 8.37%. Treasury yields declined, and WTI crude dropped over 5%. Attention now shifts to a packed schedule: the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hike rates to 1.0% on Tuesday. The Fed's June meeting concludes Wednesday, marking new Chair Wash's debut. While rates are expected to hold, his tone on stubborn inflation and the "dot plot" will be crucial for gauging the 2024 rate path. The formal Iran deal signing is set for Friday. **Trend Perspective:** While the peace deal is a genuine positive, Monday's explosive rally may have gotten ahead of itself, pricing in a swift resolution to inflation concerns. The shortened trading week faces a triple test: BoJ tightening, the Fed's policy stance, and deal implementation details. Tech and semiconductors, which led the surge, remain vulnerable to any disappointment from these key events. The real price discovery begins with the central banks' communications this week.

marsbit06/16 01:46

US Stock Market Trend (June 16): SpaceX Rises 42% in Two Days, New Fed Chairman Takes Office Today

marsbit06/16 01:46

The Unclear American Economy: Resilient or Cooling Down?

**U.S. Economic Outlook: Resilient or Cooling Down?** This analysis examines whether the U.S. economy is heading towards a recession. While still growing, the economy shows significant signs of strain. Key data points include Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.6% and Q1 PCE inflation at 4.5% (annualized), more than double the Fed's target. The labor market remains resilient but is softening, with unemployment at 4.3%. Critical recession indicators present a mixed picture: the yield curve has normalized after a prolonged inversion (historically a late-cycle signal), and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index has been declining. Current recession probability for 2026 is estimated at 19%, but rises to 41% for 2027, indicating heightened delayed risks. Major pressures are building: a wall of corporate debt refinancing at higher rates, depleted consumer savings, a contracting housing sector, and an energy price shock. The economy exhibits stagflationary characteristics—high inflation alongside slowing growth—which constrains the Federal Reserve's policy options. Historical patterns show recessions are often preceded by Fed tightening and yield curve inversions. If a recession occurs, it is expected to be mild, similar to 2001 rather than 2008. For investors, a defensive portfolio shift toward staples, healthcare, and short-term high-quality bonds may be prudent, while maintaining a long-term, diversified perspective. Key developments to monitor include upcoming GDP, employment, and inflation data, as well as policy signals from the new Fed Chair.

marsbit06/15 05:54

The Unclear American Economy: Resilient or Cooling Down?