# On-Chain的所有文章

在 HTX 新闻中心浏览与「On-Chain」相关的最新资讯与深度分析。潘盖市场趋势、项目动态、技术进展及监管政策，提供权威的加密行业洞察。

Has Bitcoin Bottomed? Unpacking 12 Key Data Indicators

Author: BitalkNews **Title: Has Bitcoin Bottomed? Analyzing 12 Key Data Indicators** The current Bitcoin price is around $59,600, representing a maximum drawdown of approximately 53% from the 2025 high. The market is in a deep correction phase. Multiple indicators suggest valuations are nearing historical lows, but a confirmed bottom requires more time. **Summary of Key Indicators:** 1. **Fear & Greed Index:** At 16, indicating "Extreme Fear," similar to levels seen during the 2022 FTX collapse. 2. **Rainbow Chart:** BTC has fallen into the "Bitcoin is dead" zone, only the second such occurrence historically. 3. **MVRV Ratio:** Currently around 1.13, near the lower historical band, pointing to a bottoming valuation area (approx. $53,200-$53,400). 4. **Realized Price:** The aggregate cost basis is ~$53,400; the current price is only about 12% above it but hasn't broken below yet. 5. **UTXO Profit/Loss Ratio:** Has dropped to its lowest level this cycle, signaling a potential "capitulation" event often seen near cycle bottoms. 6. **Long-Term Holder SOPR:** For holders >155 days, it's at 0.662, now negative, indicating seasoned investors are selling at a loss. 7. & 8. **Miner Health:** ~20% of miners are unprofitable, and actual miner revenue is below theoretical levels, indicating ongoing miner stress. 9. **ETF Flows:** U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen sustained net outflows, including a 13-day streak with over $1.7B in weekly outflows. 10. **Strategy Risk:** Strategy's stock premium has significantly contracted, pressuring the traditional "borrow-to-buy" model. 11. **Bear Duration & Drawdown:** The correction has lasted >265 days with a ~52.5% drawdown, shorter in depth but lengthy in duration. 12. **Market Expectations (Polymarket):** Betting markets suggest an ~80% probability of BTC falling below $55,000 and a notable chance below $50,000. **Conclusion:** Bitcoin is in a deep correction with potential bottom formation. Valuation metrics are in historically low ranges, and on-chain capitulation signals are accumulating. However, a complete shakeout isn't finished—the realized price hasn't been breached, and ETF demand hasn't reversed. The area below $60,000 holds long-term appeal, but patience is advised. Key signals to watch for include a return to ETF inflows, a recovery in the Long-Term Holder SOPR, and easing miner pressure.

marsbit6分钟前

Has Bitcoin Bottomed? Unpacking 12 Key Data Indicators

marsbit6分钟前

Analyst Flags $65-$71 Solana Support Zone After 60 Million SOL Changed Hands

Analyst Ali Martinez has identified a critical support zone for Solana between $65 and $71, where over 60 million SOL tokens previously changed hands. This price range is significant as it represents a major demand area where a large number of market participants have a cost basis. If this zone holds, it could support SOL's bullish structure and act as a base. Conversely, a decisive break below it may signal a shift in momentum, turning the area into resistance and prompting a search for liquidity at lower support levels. This setup provides a concrete price level for traders to monitor, offering a clearer signal than vague market sentiment amid Solana's current fragile conditions. The key takeaway is that this zone requires confirmation from price action and broader market behavior to determine the token's next directional move.

bitcoinist7小时前

Analyst Flags $65-$71 Solana Support Zone After 60 Million SOL Changed Hands

bitcoinist7小时前

Even CZ Praised Hyperliquid as 'Awesome', But Its Biggest Moat Might Also Be Its Biggest Risk

In an episode of Galaxy Brains, Binance founder CZ praised Hyperliquid as "awesome" but clarified that while its product is strong, Binance cannot compete in its specific niche due to Hyperliquid's no-KYC, decentralized model. CZ noted he would not personally operate such a model, highlighting the inherent legal and compliance risks tied to its access advantage. The discussion underscores a core market structure conflict: on-chain perp platforms like Hyperliquid thrive on open, low-barrier access, which regulated exchanges like Binance cannot replicate without abandoning their global compliance posture. However, this very advantage makes Hyperliquid a clear target for regulatory scrutiny. The UK FCA has already issued a warning against Hyperliquid for potentially offering unauthorized services to UK users, framing it as a financial services provider rather than neutral infrastructure. Historical cases like the CFTC's action against bZeroX and Ooki DAO further illustrate that regulators may pursue decentralized structures if they facilitate leveraged trading for retail users without proper controls. Meanwhile, regulated venues like Cboe are developing US-compliant "continuous futures" that mimic perpetual exposure, narrowing the product gap. Hyperliquid's long-term edge may increasingly hinge on its access model—the very feature most exposed to regulatory pressure. The key question is whether its "access premium" can withstand escalating legal challenges as on-chain perps gain mainstream attention.

marsbit06/25 08:32

Even CZ Praised Hyperliquid as 'Awesome', But Its Biggest Moat Might Also Be Its Biggest Risk

marsbit06/25 08:32

BTC Market Pulse: Week 26

Bitcoin's market activity has cooled as it consolidates after a strong recovery. Spot trading volume has decreased, and order flow has shifted to net selling. While price momentum remains constructive, institutional demand has softened, evidenced by continued net outflows from US spot ETFs and lower on-chain transfer volumes. Derivatives markets show a cautious stance. Futures open interest is stable, but declining perpetual buying pressure and a rise in demand for downside protection indicate a more defensive trader posture. Beneath the surface, supply dynamics remain supportive. Supply is increasingly held by long-term holders, profitability is high, and realized gains are increasing. A slight rise in active short-term capital could lead to higher volatility. Overall, Bitcoin is range-bound. Fading momentum and moderated participation are balanced by resilient holder behavior, stable futures positioning, and healthy profitability, creating a foundation that awaits the next major market catalyst.

insights.glassnode06/22 17:56

insights.glassnode06/22 17:56

Up Over 130% in a Month, Steadily Among Top Ethereum Blob Consumers—How Real is World Chain's Growth?

World Chain, the Layer-2 blockchain developed by the Worldcoin project, has demonstrated significant recent growth despite a generally competitive and challenging L2 landscape. Its native token, WLD, surged over 130% in a month, driven by institutional holdings (notably from Eightco Holdings), increased trading activity from promotional campaigns, and a key upcoming reduction in daily token unlocks starting July 2026. Concurrently, World Chain's on-chain activity soared, with active addresses growing nearly 650% in 30 days and its Total Value Secured (TVS) surpassing $610 million, primarily from bridge inflows. However, its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem remains nascent, with a total value locked (TVL) of only ~$40 million largely concentrated in a single protocol. A standout metric is World Chain's high data usage: it has become the second-largest consumer of Ethereum Blobs (data storage units), trailing only Base. This indicates substantial real-user transaction demand, likely fueled by Worldcoin's identity verification and reward distribution activities on its dedicated chain. While its current growth is fueled by token momentum and bridge capital, World Chain's long-term success depends on converting this activity into a sustainable, diverse on-chain economy.

marsbit06/22 12:19

Up Over 130% in a Month, Steadily Among Top Ethereum Blob Consumers—How Real is World Chain's Growth?

marsbit06/22 12:19

Stablecoins Finally Find Real Yield: An In-Depth Look at On-Chain Reinsurance Re | A Conversation with Re Founder Karan Saroya

Stablecoin Real Yield Found: A Deep Dive into On-Chain Reinsurance with Re's Karan Saroya As stablecoin supply exceeds $170 billion, the search for sustainable, non-speculative yield intensifies. Re, an on-chain reinsurance platform, provides an answer: connecting stablecoin capital to the trillion-dollar traditional reinsurance market. Re operates as a regulated reinsurer, accepting stablecoin deposits as collateral to back US insurance companies. These insurers pay premiums, generating yield that flows back to on-chain depositors. Currently supporting 35 insurers and underwriting $500 million, Re projects scaling to over $1 billion soon. Key insights from a Bankless podcast with founder Karan Saroya and investor Avichal of Electric Capital: 1. **Uncorrelated, Real-World Yield:** Re offers stablecoin holders access to reinsurance returns (targeting 12-14%+), an asset class entirely separate from crypto or equity markets. 2. **Operational Efficiency via Smart Contracts:** Re replaces traditional, labor-intensive capital fundraising with smart contracts, allowing a ~12-person team to compete with industry giants. 3. **Regulatory Leverage:** For every $1 of collateral, regulations allow backing $5-7 in written premiums. This leverage amplifies returns from the underlying risk-free rate. 4. **DeFi Integration:** Depositors receive receipt tokens, which can be used in protocols like Morpho for "looping," potentially pushing yields to 18-20%+. 5. **The "DeFi Mullet" Model:** A compliant front-end (regulated reinsurer) paired with a decentralized back-end (smart contracts, DeFi capital markets). 6. **RE Governance Token:** Modeled on Lloyd's of London, the token governs the central capital pool's allocation, counterparty acceptance, and parameters. 7. **Real Economic Impact:** Capital funds real-world productivity (factories, clinics, businesses) via insurance, moving beyond crypto's internal loops. The discussion highlights a pivotal moment: DeFi's supply-side infrastructure is now met by real demand for productive yield, potentially kickstarting a flywheel where vast on-chain stablecoin capital seeks these real-world returns.

链捕手06/20 08:55

Stablecoins Finally Find Real Yield: An In-Depth Look at On-Chain Reinsurance Re | A Conversation with Re Founder Karan Saroya

链捕手06/20 08:55

Introducing: Market Compass

Glassnode introduces Market Compass, a dashboard providing a unified view of Bitcoin market conditions. It consolidates thousands of on-chain and market metrics into seven "lenses." Four forward-looking lenses (Macro, Capital Flows, Investor Behavior, On-Chain Fundamentals) feed a headline composite score from 0 (Risk-Off) to 100 (Risk-On). Three standalone lenses (Cycle Position, Derivatives, Cross-Asset Rotation) describe the current market structure. In the current reading, the headline score is 14/100 (Risk-Off), indicating a defensive regime. The Macro lens is the weakest at 23, constrained by a strong US Dollar (DXY) trading above its 200-day average. While the other forward-looking lenses show moderate improvement from recent lows, the overall picture suggests bottom-fishing within an unturned market cycle. Key observations include stablecoin supply shrinking (reduced buying power), long-term holders absorbing supply, tepid on-chain demand, and a derivatives market coiled for a potential move. The tool is designed as a contextual map, not a direct trading signal, synthesizing complex data into a single coherent read.

insights.glassnode06/18 18:33

insights.glassnode06/18 18:33

Football Draw Harvests Whales: Extreme Profit-Loss Divergence on Polymarket's World Cup

A bettor known as "fishalive" made a stunning profit of nearly $9 million on the Polymarket prediction platform by correctly wagering against favorites during the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage. The account, registered just before the tournament, risked roughly $400,000 on two contracts for a Spain vs. Cape Verde match: one that Spain would *not* win, and another on a Cape Verde +2.5 goal handicap. The resulting 0-0 draw triggered both payouts. This single event, with a total market volume of $64 million, highlighted extreme profit-and-loss divergence. Other traders, like "betoor619" and "leeeeroyjenkins," lost millions by betting heavily on favorites Spain and Belgium to win outright—contracts that become worthless in a draw. The article explains that while markets heavily favored strong teams, the "team to win" contracts are binary and do not account for the common outcome of a draw. This creates high-risk, low-reward scenarios for favorite backers, while asymmetric profits flow to those betting on underdogs or against outright wins. The transparency of Polymarket's on-chain ledger publicly documents these massive wins and losses, driving mainstream media coverage. As the tournament progresses, the author suggests traders may shift towards hedging strategies that account for draws. The piece also notes growing regulatory scrutiny in the US and Europe, questioning whether such large-scale, anonymous sports prediction markets should be regulated as gambling or financial derivatives.

Foresight News06/18 06:02

Football Draw Harvests Whales: Extreme Profit-Loss Divergence on Polymarket's World Cup

Foresight News06/18 06:02

Data Decrypts the BTC Cycle: Three Major Bottom Signals Illuminate Simultaneously, Q4 Could Be a Crucial Turning Point Window?

"Decoding the Bitcoin Cycle: Three Bottom Signals Flash Simultaneously, Is Q4 the Key Turning Point?" The article analyzes Bitcoin's current market position, comparing it to historical cycles. BTC has corrected over 52% from its October 2025 peak of $126,198 to around $59,100 in June 2026. While significant, this drawdown is milder than the 77-86% declines seen in past bear markets. The analysis is framed within Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle. Past cycles show a pattern: prices peak 12-18 months post-halving, bottom 12-14 months after the peak, with lows typically occurring roughly 17 months before the next halving. Following the April 2024 halving and the October 2025 peak, this pattern suggests a potential bottoming window around Q4 2026, ahead of the expected 2028 halving. Three key on-chain metrics are signaling undervaluation: The MVRV Z-Score has dropped near 0.27, approaching historic bottom zones. The market price is only about 9% above the network's average realized price of ~$53,600, a rare low premium. Bitcoin's price recently touched its 200-week moving average (~$62,200), a level that aligned with bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2020. While US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record outflows in May/June 2026, indicating retail panic, whale addresses (holding 100+ BTC) reached a yearly high. Entities like MicroStrategy resumed buying, and long-term holders control a near-record 78% of the supply, suggesting accumulation. A major macro overhang was partially removed with a US-Iran ceasefire agreement in mid-June 2026, which eased oil prices and triggered a sharp BTC rally. However, persistent inflation means high-interest rates remain a constraint. The conclusion notes that genuine investment opportunities often arise when confidence is lowest, amidst narratives that "this time is different." While not guaranteeing an immediate bottom, the confluence of cycle timing, undervaluation signals, and shifting macro risks suggests late 2026 may be a critical period for reassessing risk/reward and patient accumulation for long-term believers.

marsbit06/16 02:58

Data Decrypts the BTC Cycle: Three Major Bottom Signals Illuminate Simultaneously, Q4 Could Be a Crucial Turning Point Window?

marsbit06/16 02:58

Bitcoin Puell Multiple Falls To 0.74 As Miner Revenue Slides

The Bitcoin Puell Multiple, an on-chain indicator that measures the ratio of daily miner revenue in USD to its 365-day moving average, has declined to a recent value of 0.74. This drop suggests that Bitcoin miners are currently earning less than 75% of their average income over the past year, primarily due to a bearish shift in the cryptocurrency's price. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to find market bottoms when miner stress is high, though the current Puell Multiple level remains above those seen at the lows of the last two major bear markets. This implies that further price declines could be necessary for a bottom to form, assuming past patterns repeat. The indicator also shows characteristic sharp drops coinciding with Bitcoin Halving events, which cut the block subsidy in half. Concurrently, Bitcoin's price has been trading sideways around $62,800.

bitcoinist06/12 12:49

Bitcoin Puell Multiple Falls To 0.74 As Miner Revenue Slides