Ethereum [ETH] slipped by less than 1% on the day, at press time, following a strong 10% gain over the past week.
Despite this recent rally, the broader crypto market remains under pressure, with total capitalization hovering just above $3 trillion.
ETH price performance reflected the capital outflow seen since the start of Q4. This quarter has been historically bullish for crypto since 2020, except for 2022 and 2025, as per CoinGlass.
Ethereum ETFs and whale activity contributed to this decline in price. However, the market showed a slight recovery in the last week of November. Will the capital outflow result in further decline, and by what magnitude?
Monthly Ethereum ETF outflows surge
The data from SosoValue showed that the last five consecutive days had positive inflows of more than $368 million. This was a reflection of capital inflow at a time when the whole market was finding its ground.
Looking at the broader picture, November recorded significant outflows. Roughly $1.42 billion was withdrawn from Ethereum ETFs, three times the $403 million seen in March.
Source: SosoValue
The last quarter of the year has been bearish, but ETH’s November has been the worst. Massive inflows in July and August powered the price of ETH higher, while the subsequent decrease in this activity resulted in a decline.
More capital outflow from OG whales
The capital outflow did not end at the Ethereum ETF activity but was extended to OG whales.
One early adopter of ETH was cashing out assets after about eight years of holding, having bought at $517, as per Crypto Patel on X.
The whale has been offloading his spot position gradually, with the latest being 18,000 ETH valued at $54.78 million. The deposit to Bitstamp was a hint to sell, affirming further capital outflow from the Ethereum ecosystem.
Source: Crypto Patel/X
In total, the whale has sold 87,824 ETH worth $270 million but still retains over $200 million in Ethereum.
These remaining holdings reflect confidence in the asset’s potential recovery, particularly with a long‑term outlook.
Is Ethereum price at risk of decline?
On the hourly charts, Ethereum was holding above a multi‑day trendline support. This bullish setup aligned with a 10% weekly gain, lifting the price from the $2,600 zone to $3,040 at the time of writing.
The capital outflow risked a breakdown below the ascending trendline. In case this is actualized, ETH price could correct between 5% and 6% from the current price.
That way, the price could be back below $3,000 again.
Source: TradingView
Alternatively, if ETH defends this support level, the current rebound could continue pushing the price higher.
Final Thoughts
- November’s last week sees massive ETH ETF inflows, but the monthly total is down at $1.42 billion.
- Selling spot holdings by whales could trigger a price breakdown of 5% or more.
