Key Takeaways
Will BTC go up in Q4?
Analysts believe BTC could front a final leg up in Q4 if it defends $107K.
What will be the next rally catalyst?
Improved institutional demand, especially from ETFs, could flip the price momentum to positive.
Bitcoin [BTC] has erased all the September gains after slipping to $108K, a 7% dip from this monthly high of $117.9K.
From its record peak of $124.4K, the cryptocurrency was down about 12% at press time, prompting another wave of “top” calls from some quarters.
But Swissblock analysts said BTC’s bullish structure was still intact. It added that a “final” leg up could be likely in Q4.
“Despite trading close to $107.3K, the prior local low from August’s correction, the structure is holding. Bitcoin shows signs it may be preparing for a final round.”
Source: Swissblock
Per the Swissblock proprietary model, the “high risk level” was triggered during July, mid-August, and mid-September local tops.
As of press time, though, the model was in a “low risk regime”, suggesting potential upside before printing another local top.
Will BTC ETFs fuel the next leg up?
By contrast, price momentum stayed negative despite BTC holding above $108K. Swissblock noted LTH (long-term holder) sell pressure reflected late-cycle trends.
Source: Swissblock
The analytics firm said that if BTC ETFs absorb the LTH dump, the price could stabilize and rally.
Unfortunately, demand for the ETF products dropped this week. They saw a high Daily Outflow ($367 million) on the 22nd of September.
The bleed out spiked higher to $418 million on Friday, bringing Weekly Outflows to $902.5 million.
Source: CryptoQuant
If outflows continue, Bitcoin’s price could remain under pressure through the end of Q3. However, Q4 has historically been one of the strongest periods for BTC, with average returns of 85%.
What’s next for the BTC price?
So, will BTC hold above $109K, which also doubled as the STH (short-term holder) realized price?
On the price charts, the $107.5K-$109.7K support zone (cyan) has been crucial in Q3. And losing it could accelerate a dip to $105K or $100K.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
But before that, the OBV (On Balance Volume) must crack its H2 support to confirm further decline.
If defended, a rebound could be feasible, especially with a daily close above $112K. In such a scenario, $114K and $118K will be immediate bullish targets.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion
