The upgrade is set for April 12, enabling Ethereum stakers to withdraw around 1.1 billion ETH in rewards — worth over $2 billion as of April 8.
ETH price undergoes key technical bounce
Many experts see the hard fork as bullish for Ether in the long term. For instance, the Shanghai buzz has helped Ether outperform Bitcoin in April so far.
As a result, the ETH/BTC pair has risen by about 4.75% month-to-date to reach 0.066 BTC as of April 8, a nearly 8% rebound since March 20.
The bounce was largely expected, particularly as ETH/BTC dropped to its historical ascending trendline support. Now, the upside move raises the prospects of an extended bullish retracement toward its descending trendline resistance, marked as a "sell zone" in the chart below.
ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView
The fractal-based outlook puts Ether on target for 0.075 BTC by June, up 10% versus current price levels. Meanwhile, the pair's upside target for April appears to be its 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near 0.069 BTC.
Conversely, a decisive close below the 200-3D EMA (the blue wave) near 0.066 BTC, coinciding support/resistance level near 0.067 BTC, risks delaying or — in the worst case scenario — invalidating the bullish retracement setup.
This bearish argument echoes independent market analyst CrediBULL Crypto who expects strong selling pressure near the 0.067 BTC resistance level that would lead to a 50% drop in 2023.
ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/CrediBULL Crypto
Ethereum vs. dollar outlook
The ETH/USD pair has rallied by more than 50% in 2023, primarily due to similar uptrends elsewhere in the crypto market.
A weakening dollar, lower U.S. Treasury yields, and expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot on interest rate hikes have helped cryptocurrencies rise across the board in Q1. These catalysts will likely remain in the spotlight until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May.
As a result, Ether could sustain its yearly gains in April, consolidating inside the $1,800-2,000 range until the Fed decision.
Moreover, a decisive breakout at current levels could result in extended gains with a second-quarter ETH price target of over $3,000.
ETH/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView
On the other hand, the bears will attempt to pull the price down for a close below $1,800 with the triangle's lower trendline near $1,600 as its downside target.
