Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macro Market
U.S. stocks fell on Thursday, dragged down by weakness in tech stocks. The S&P 500 closed down 0.54% at 6,908.85 points, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 1.18% to 22,878.38 points, nearly erasing Wednesday's gains. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.03% to 49,499.20 points. U.S. Treasury yields across maturities generally declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4%, hitting a new low since late November last year.
Amid rising risk-off sentiment, the Fed rate cut博弈 (game) reignited, with former Governor Stephen Milan sending strong dovish signals. He publicly called for a full 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2026, emphasizing that high compliance costs are inhibiting bank lending, and weak inflationary pressures are supporting the dovish stance of incoming Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh.
Simultaneously, geopolitical clouds further fueled market risk aversion, with WTI crude oil fluctuating widely before closing slightly down 0.15%. Vance entered the U.S.-Iran negotiations and will meet with the Omani Foreign Minister on Friday, aiming to advance U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and avoid war. Meanwhile, Pakistan launched heavy airstrikes against the Afghan Taliban, declaring "patience exhausted" and initiating open warfare. Border clashes between the two sides have resulted in over 70 deaths since October last year.
AI Sector Dynamics
The AI sector is at a critical stage of narrative restructuring, with capital gradually shifting from the "picks and shovels" logic to the application layer. According to Goldman Sachs data, short positions in the software industry have reached a seven-year high, while long positions have hit rock bottom. In this narrative shift, a deep dive report from Deutsche Bank sparked deep thought on Wall Street. The report extrapolated two extreme endgames for AI development: either, as predicted by Marx and envisioned by Musk, AI completely replaces labor, leading to a restructuring of capitalism; or history repeats itself, with AI merely serving as a technology empowering humans.
Furthermore, despite reporting a 73% year-on-year surge in revenue, giant NVIDIA's stock plummeted 5.7% intraday and closed down 5.49% due to market concerns about the sustainability of AI spending. Meanwhile, net retail buying of NVIDIA stock hit a record high since 2012. The market also传出 (circulated) that the DeepSeek V4 model offered early access to domestic suppliers. Its new model, codenamed Sealion-lite, features a million-level context window and is natively multimodal, seen as a potential signal to bypass the NVIDIA ecosystem, intensifying panic selling in the chip sector. Baidu, also pushing into the application layer, delivered its transformation report card. Its AI cloud business annual revenue surpassed 30 billion yuan for the first time, with core AI business accounting for 43% of total general business revenue, successfully offsetting the gloom of traditional business contraction.
Facing the efficiency revolution of the AI era, enterprises have begun drastic measures for survival. Fintech giant Block announced layoffs of 4,000 employees, cutting nearly half its workforce. CEO Jack Dorsey clearly stated a full bet on AI-driven operational efficiency. This decisive organizational restructuring won疯狂追捧 (crazy追捧 - fervent pursuit) from the capital market, with the stock soaring over 24% after hours.
Bitcoin Market
The crypto market was overall shrouded in risk-off sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index rose slightly to 13 but remained in extreme fear. Affected by the pullback in U.S. tech stocks and rising macro risk-off sentiment, Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $70,000 mark and lost the $68,000 trendline. Although U.S. spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 3 consecutive days, panic sentiment remains strong in the derivatives market. $7.8 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire this Friday, with the max pain point at $75,000. Current market sentiment is relatively cautious. According to unbias data, 57% of analysts are short-term bullish.
Bearish Views
The core logic of the bearish camp lies in the uncertainty of macro liquidity and the suppression of historical cycle patterns. They believe the current rebound is just a bull trap in a bear market, and the real bottom is far from reached.
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Trader Roman pointed out that previous bear market cycles saw declines close to 80%, while the current pullback from the high is only about 53%, with no reversal signs on monthly or weekly charts.
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Analyst Rekt Capital emphasized that the shortest Bitcoin bear market in history lasted 365 days, while the current bear market is only about 140 days. It is too early to talk about the end of the bear market, and the 200-week moving average is constituting strong downward pressure.
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Analyst Willy Woo warned that if the global macro environment weakens significantly, $30,000 or even $16,000 would be the last line of defense to maintain the long-term bull market structure.
Bullish Views
The bullish camp finds support from on-chain data, institutional fund flows, and structural cycle perspectives. They firmly believe selling pressure has dried up, and the market is on the eve of a reversal buildup.
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Binance Research believes Bitcoin is near a structural bottom. The current divergence between BTC and global M2 money supply stems from structural distortions. Once software stocks bottom out, the mechanical linkage between tech stocks and Bitcoin will fade.
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Analyst Willy Woo stated that selling pressure from investors in this round seems to have temporarily ceased, and the market may consolidate sideways. The fourth quarter would be a good time to end the bear market trend.
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Santiment pointed out that the number of wallets holding more than 100 BTC continues to grow, indicating wealth is concentrating among "whales." Historically, such increases in whale wallets often occur during accumulation stages that support price recovery.
Ethereum Market
Ethereum's movement is highly correlated with the broader market, oscillating slightly around $2,000. On-chain data shows ETH's MVRV Z-Score has fallen into the historical accumulation zone, and the realized volatility of Ethereum on Binance has surged to a 12-month high, suggesting the market is undergoing strong repricing. $961 million in Ethereum options will expire this Friday, with a put/call ratio of 0.77 and a max pain point at $2,200. Current market sentiment is in a repair period after extreme pessimism, with bottom-fishing funds eager to act.
Bearish Views
The bearish camp mainly worries about the dense resistance from above (套牢盘 - bagholders) and liquidation risks in the derivatives market. They believe a rebound is difficult to sustain without strong fundamental catalysts.
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Market analyst IncomeSharks pointed out that Ethereum faces repeated rejections at the super trendline on the daily chart. There is strong channel resistance near $2,250 above, and sellers still control the situation.
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Analyst Dom reminded that if Ethereum cannot effectively stabilize above the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $2,140, the price will remain trapped within the established oscillation range.
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Near $1,800, Ethereum still harbors $2.66 billion in long liquidation额度 (quotas/levels).
Bullish Views
The bullish camp sees strong signals for a bottom rebound from valuation repair, funding rate reversal, and divergence from U.S. stocks.
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Prominent economist Krugman clearly stated that Ethereum is beginning to show early signs of bottoming. This is the first bullish divergence of cryptocurrencies relative to U.S. stocks since last year. The crypto market might bottom out before U.S. stocks peak.
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Analyst Trader Tardigrade believes Ethereum is currently testing the multi-year support trendline around $1,800-$1,900. Historical experience suggests that once this level is held, the price will迎来 (usher in) a parabolic explosive rise.
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Analyst Pelin Ay pointed out that the funding rate for ETH on Binance has sharply turned positive from negative, indicating that previously aggressive shorts have been squeezed out, and market structure is shifting in favor of bulls.
Key Data (As of 13:00 HKT, Feb 27)
(Data Source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
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Bitcoin ETF:+ $254 million, net inflows for 3 consecutive days
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Ethereum ETF:+ $6.5742 million, net inflows for 3 consecutive days
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SOL ETF: + $507.8 thousand
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XRP ETF: + $1.2163 million
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Fear & Greed Index: 13 (Extreme Fear)
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Upbit 24h Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, ENSO, CFG
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Sector Gains/Losses: GameFi sector up 6.21%, AI sector down 2%
24-Hour Liquidation Data: 94,779 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $196 million. BTC liquidations were $60.3056 million, ETH $48.453 million, SOL $8.8097 million.
Today's Outlook
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Binance Alpha will list Fabric Protocol (ROBO) on February 27
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Binance will delist spot trading pairs including DOT/BRL, GRT/ETH on February 27
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Jupiter (JUP) will unlock approximately 253 million tokens worth about $49.4 million on February 28
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Grass (GRASS) will unlock approximately 55 million tokens worth about $13.48 million on February 28
Top 100 Coins by Market Cap - Biggest Gainers Today: Power Protocol up 71.4%, Decred up 13.3%, Stable up 9.9%, Internet Computer up 7.8%, MemeCore up 6.5%.
Hot News
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LayerZero DAO burns all remaining STG, STG officially renamed to ZRO
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SBI launches Japan's first trust-based yen stablecoin JPYSC, planned for Q2 launch
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Polymarket bets on Axiom insider addresses may point to Pump.fun partner, ZachXBT denies connection
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Avalanche ecosystem accelerator Colony announces it will cease operations by the end of the quarter
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Report: Over half of top 25 US banks piloting crypto业务 (crypto business), ~716 million global coin holders
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US OCC stablecoin proposed rule: Stablecoin redemption within 2 business days max, can extend to 7 days if daily redemptions exceed 10% of circulating supply
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Magic Eden plans to shut down Bitcoin and EVM markets and terminate multi-chain wallet
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Cardone Capital preparing to tokenize ~$5 billion in real estate assets
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Anthropic says it rejected the Pentagon's "final proposal"
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Foreign media: Paypal and Stripe are not currently in talks, Paypal currently has no plan to sell itself
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Block is cutting 4,000 jobs, nearly half its workforce
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Deribit: ~$8.8 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring this Friday
- <极="1" p dir="ltr" role="presentation">Vitalik has累计 (cumulatively) sold 16,420 ETH, cashing out ~$32.84 million
