Trading Moment: Nonfarm Payrolls Loom, Oil Soars, Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin Under Pressure, 80% of Analysts Bullish on BTC

marsbitОпубликовано 2026-03-06Обновлено 2026-03-06

Введение

Amid heightened geopolitical tensions and anticipation for the U.S. February non-farm payroll data, oil prices surged with Brent nearing $90 and WTI exceeding $82, driven by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin fell 3% to around $71,000, testing key support at $69,420, while 80% of analysts remain bullish despite miner sell-offs. Ethereum hovered above $2,000 with mixed sentiment. Altcoins faced liquidity stress, though sectors like AI saw gains. Key events include U.S. employment data releases and options expiries. Market fear and greed index hit 18 (extreme fear), with $227M in liquidations. Notable moves include OKB surging 26.7% on ICE’s investment in OKX.

Daily key market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

The U.S. will officially enter Daylight Saving Time on March 8th, with stock market trading starting one hour earlier, adjusted to Beijing Time 21:30-4:00. Additionally, global capital is closely watching tonight's February Nonfarm Payrolls report. With the data suspense of an expected 59,000 new jobs added, the market is holding its breath. PGIM and Amerivet Securities warn that if the data exceeds expectations, it could add fuel to the fire, further driving up U.S. Treasury yields.

The geopolitical powder keg in the Middle East has been completely ignited. An Iranian drone struck the U.S. aircraft carrier "Lincoln," and the humanitarian crisis has even affected innocents, forcing the emergency evacuation of up to 150 schoolchildren. The latest report from the United Maritime Information Centre points out that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stalled, with the number of transiting vessels dropping to single digits. Only two confirmed transits of commercial vessels were observed in the past 24 hours, and both were cargo ships, not oil tankers.

Amid supply disruption panic, Brent crude is approaching $90, and WTI crude broke through $82 to hit a new high. JPMorgan Chase urgently warned that storage tank capacity is running critically low, and forced production shutdowns for Middle Eastern crude could reach 3.3 million barrels per day within the next three days; meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has significantly raised its official selling price for crude to Asia by $2.50 per barrel. Facing soaring oil prices, Trump seemed dismissive, stating bluntly "let it rise, military action is far more important," and threatened to "completely eliminate the Iranian leadership". However, the U.S. Treasury Department may unprecedentedly short oil futures to suppress prices, while the U.S. has issued a 30-day temporary waiver, easing restrictions on India's purchase of Russian crude to resolve a stalemate involving up to 9.5 million barrels of stranded Russian oil.

AI Sector Developments

The battle for computing power in the artificial intelligence field is evolving into a geopolitical game at the national level. The U.S. government plans to extend AI chip export controls globally, requiring all AI accelerator exports from giants like Nvidia and AMD to obtain licenses. The Trump administration intends to become the global AI "gatekeeper," tightly holding core technology.

The policy headwinds poured cold water on the sector, causing chip stocks to collectively fall sharply. Nvidia and AMD fell 1.9% and 2.3% intraday respectively. Although Nvidia managed a slight rally at the close to end up 0.16%, market panic was already evident.

The "money-burning game" of AI infrastructure is intensifying, with traditional giants and crypto miners jumping in. JPMorgan Chase is expected to invest a whopping $20 billion in AI this year, an unprecedented scale in banking history; while Oracle, dragged down by AI infrastructure costs turning its cash flow negative, is planning large-scale layoffs.

Bitcoin miners are also疯狂ly pivoting in the computing power wave. CleanSpark sold a staggering 97% of its Bitcoin production in February, cashing out over $36 million, solely to fully bet on the expansion of AI and high-performance computing data centers.

Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin fell 3% from its recent high of $74,000 to around $71,000, suppressed by risk-off sentiment and liquidity contraction, and is currently testing the support level at $69,420. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio has been in a downtrend for 13 months since peaking in December 2024.

Amid the computing power war and AI frenzy, miners are疯狂ly selling. Listed mining companies have sold over 15,000 BTC since last October; among them, Cango sold 4,451 BTC in February (60% of its position), Bitdeer cleared its inventory in January, Core Scientific plans to sell 2,500 BTC in Q1, and CleanSpark sold 553 BTC (97% of February's production, retaining only 13,363 BTC). Affected by this, the hash price index, measuring miner revenue, has plummeted from $39 three months ago to a historical low of $30.

MicroStrategy's current holdings of 720,737 Bitcoin have an average cost of $76,000, a level that has become a psychological barrier difficult for bulls to overcome. According to Greeks.live data, $2.3 billion notional value of BTC options will expire on March 6th, with a max pain point of $69,000. Bitcoin is holding above the $70,000 mark and有望冲击 $75,000, but the options market shows selling call options dominates, indicating slowing upward momentum. However, according to unbias data, bullish analysts in the market have now significantly increased to 80%.

Bearish Views

The bear camp believes the current rebound is merely a short-term recovery after selling pressure eased, lacking sustained momentum for a squeeze, and a break below support will lead to a deeper correction.

  • CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno pointed out that on-chain data suggests the market is still in a bearish environment, and the recent rise is just a "relief rally."

  • Analyst Murphy emphasized that the MVRV extreme deviation indicator shows the rally is nearing the top range of $74,000 to $78,000 and could face resistance and fall back at any time.

  • Trader Roman stated that the daily chart lacks volume support, the current movement is a retest after breaking support, and it will inevitably move to lower points shortly.

  • Godot analysis suggested the market has not entered a FOMO stage, institutional funds are continuously raising the strike prices of sold call options to absorb long liquidity, maintaining the logic of harvesting time value through oscillation.

Bullish Views

The bull camp firmly believes that the short-term pullback is just healthy consolidation within a larger uptrend, with strong liquidity support below, and long-term dollar-cost averaging strategies still hold absolute advantage.

  • Analyst CryptoReviewing believes shorts have been completely wiped out. Once liquidity above $73,000 is swept, it will directly open the door to higher levels.

  • TurboBullCapital pointed out that $63,000 is an excellent demand zone. After washing out, the price will once again冲击 the resistance at $75,000.

  • Cyril-DeFi stated the current movement is more like a reset within a large-scale rising trend. As long as the $70,000 support holds, Bitcoin will continue to climb towards the upper band.

  • Ali Charts emphasized that $70,685 is an extremely critical support concentration zone. Once stabilized, the area up to $81,000 will be a畅通无阻的 "vacuum zone".

Ethereum Market

Ethereum, after touching $2,200, could not stay immune and is still hovering above $2,000. Undercurrents are surging in the derivatives market, with $380 million notional value of ETH options expiring today, max pain $1,950. Despite weak on-chain fundamental data and lack of bullish leverage demand in the derivatives market, continuous inflows of institutional funds have led to intense博弈 between bulls and bears at the key support level of $2,100, with overall market sentiment偏向 cautious观望.

Bearish Views

Bears point directly to the deterioration of Ethereum's fundamentals, believing network upgrades damaged tokenomics, and false on-chain prosperity masks the萎缩 of real demand.

  • Short-selling firm Culper Research高调 announced shorting Ethereum, accusing the Fusaka upgrade of increasing the Gas limit to 45-60 million, causing Gas fees to plummet 90%, and that 95% of new wallet activity and over 50% of transaction growth are illusions created by dust attacks and poisoning (accounting for 22.5% of total transactions).

  • Trader UB warned that Ethereum failed to break out of its range like other major coins. If it cannot quickly reclaim $2,150, it will be an excellent short target.

Bullish Views

Bulls still value Ethereum's decentralization premium and technical support levels, believing the return of institutional funds could ignite a new rally at any time.

  • CryptoQuant analyst team noted the Coinbase Premium Index hit a new high, indicating U.S. buying is returning, and seller dominance is fading.

  • Cyril-DeFi analysis stated Ethereum is perfectly retesting the support of the lower band of its long-term ascending channel. Historical experience shows this area极易 triggers strong bounces.

  • Trader Crypto Patel emphasized that as long as the macro bottom line of $1,750 holds, the bulls still control the overall situation, with targets directly pointing to $2,500 to $2,600.

  • Man of Bitcoin believes that once the price successfully retests the broken trendline, it will directly launch an assault towards the Fibonacci extension levels of $2,340 or even $3,400.

Market Dynamics

The altcoin market is experiencing a brutal liquidity drought, with up to 38% of altcoins hovering near historical lows, a severity even exceeding the post-FTX collapse period. Under the heavy pressure of macro uncertainty, the market Fear & Greed Index is dominated by极度放大的 risk-off sentiment, with high全网 liquidation amounts.

However, some projects still爆发惊人的生命力 amidst despair. With rising demand for on-chain trading of traditional assets like U.S. stocks, gold, and oil, trading volume on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market continues to rise, breaking $2.2 billion. WTI crude contracts saw daily trading volume grow 140% recently against the backdrop of geopolitical risks.

Furthermore, the integration of traditional finance and the crypto world is accelerating. NYSE parent company ICE invested heavily in OKX, pushing its valuation to $25 billion,刺激 OKB token surge 58% short-term to $124. Kraken also followed suit, launching the xChange engine supporting 24/7 trading of tokenized stocks like Apple and Tesla.

Key Data (As of March 6, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

  • Bitcoin ETF: -$227.83 million

  • Ethereum ETF: -$90.94 million

  • SOL ETF: -$5.23 million

  • XRP ETF: -$6.16 million

  • Fear & Greed Index: 18 (Extreme Fear)

  • Upbit 24h Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, BTC, BARD, ETH, SIGN

  • Sector Performance: Crypto sectors mixed, AI sector up nearly 2%

24-hour Liquidation Data: 93,063 people were liquidated globally, total liquidation amount $227 million,其中 BTC liquidation $104 million, ETH liquidation $40.33 million, SOL liquidation $10.69 million.

Today's Outlook

  • HyperLiquid Co-founder: 173,000 HYPE to be unstaked and distributed to team members on March 6th

  • Coinbase delays Limitless (LMTS) listing time to March 7th early morning

  • Binance lists COPPERUSDT perpetual contract (copper-backed asset)

  • U.S. February Unemployment Rate: Expected 4.3%, Previous 4.3% (March 6, 21:30)

  • U.S. February Nonfarm Payrolls Change (10k): Expected 5.5, Previous 13 (March 6, 21:30)

  • Daylight Saving Time begins in North America, U.S. stock trading starts one hour earlier (March 8, 15:00)

  • OP to unlock ~19.5 million tokens on March 7th, worth ~$2.4 million

  • RED to unlock ~40.85 million tokens on March 7th, worth ~$6.2 million

Today's Top 100 Coins by Market Cap - Max Gainers: OKB up 26.7%, Kite up 24.4%, River up 18.2%, pippin up 8.3%, Pi Network up 6.7%.

Hot News

  • Hyperliquid WTI crude trading volume surged 140% recently, HIP-3 market volume now accounts for 30% of total

  • Russian Central Bank proposes allowing banks and brokerages to obtain cryptocurrency trading licenses

  • Listed Bitcoin mining companies have cumulatively sold over 15,000 BTC since last October

  • Justin Sun: Still holds all purchased LIT, long-term bullish on Lighter

  • SEC Chair states: Look forward to working with CFTC Chair to advance the CLARITY Act

  • CleanSpark sells 97% of February's Bitcoin production to fund its AI transition

  • ParaFi Capital疑似 swapped over $5 million worth of AAVE for SKY in the past 3 days

  • Culper Research announces shorting ETH and related securities, claims Fusaka upgrade damaged token economic model

  • Kraken launches unified execution layer xChange for xStocks tokenized stock trading

  • Trump: Need to personally participate in Iran's succession arrangement, will not accept Khamenei's son as Supreme Leader

  • NYSE parent ICE invests in crypto exchange OKX,后者估值 ~$25 billion

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Как работает ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО ($BITCOIN) Операционные механизмы ЦИФРОВОГО ЗОЛОТА ($BITCOIN) можно подробно описать на основе его дизайна блокчейна и характеристик сети: Механизм консенсуса: Используя уникальный механизм доказательства истории (PoH) Solana в сочетании с моделью доказательства доли (PoS), проект обеспечивает эффективную валидацию транзакций, что способствует высокой производительности сети. Токеномика: Хотя конкретные дефляционные механизмы не были подробно описаны, большое максимальное предложение токенов подразумевает, что оно может быть предназначено для микротранзакций или нишевых случаев использования, которые еще предстоит определить. Интероперабельность: Существует потенциал для интеграции с более широкой экосистемой Solana, включая различные платформы децентрализованных финансов (DeFi). Однако детали относительно конкретных интеграций остаются неуточненными. Хронология ключевых событий Вот хронология, которая подчеркивает значимые вехи, касающиеся ЦИФРОВОГО ЗОЛОТА ($BITCOIN): 2023: Первоначальное развертывание токена происходит в блокчейне Solana, отмеченное его адресом контракта. 2024: ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО приобретает видимость, когда оно становится доступным для торговли на децентрализованных биржах, таких как PumpSwap, позволяя пользователям обменивать его на SOL. 2025: Проект наблюдает спорадическую торговую активность и потенциальный интерес к инициативам, возглавляемым сообществом, хотя на данный момент не зафиксировано никаких значительных партнерств или технических достижений. Критический анализ Сильные стороны Масштабируемость: Основная инфраструктура Solana поддерживает высокие объемы транзакций, что может повысить полезность $BITCOIN в различных сценариях транзакций. Доступность: Потенциально низкая цена торговли за токен может привлечь розничных инвесторов, способствуя более широкому участию благодаря возможностям дробного владения. Риски Отсутствие прозрачности: Отсутствие публично известных спонсоров, разработчиков или процесса аудита может вызвать скептицизм относительно устойчивости и надежности проекта. Волатильность рынка: Торговая активность сильно зависит от спекулятивного поведения, что может привести к значительной волатильности цен и неопределенности для инвесторов. Заключение ЦИФРОВОЕ ЗОЛОТО ($BITCOIN) является интригующим, но неоднозначным проектом в быстро развивающейся экосистеме Solana. Хотя он пытается использовать нарратив “цифрового золота”, его отход от установленной роли Биткойна как средства хранения ценности подчеркивает необходимость более четкого различения его предполагаемой утилиты и структуры управления. Будущее принятие и усвоение, вероятно, будут зависеть от решения текущей непрозрачности и более четкого определения его операционных и экономических стратегий. Примечание: Этот отчет охватывает синтезированную информацию, доступную на октябрь 2023 года, и с тех пор могут произойти события.

99 просмотров всегоОпубликовано 2025.05.13Обновлено 2025.05.13

Что такое $BITCOIN

Fractal Bitcoin: масштабирование Биткоина с помощью рекурсивной системы

Fractal Bitcoin — масштабное Layer-1-решнение, созданное на базе кода Биткоина, позволяющего достигать бесконечного масштабирования с помощью рекурсивного подхода.

2.2k просмотров всегоОпубликовано 2025.06.30Обновлено 2025.06.30

Fractal Bitcoin: масштабирование Биткоина с помощью рекурсивной системы

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