# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Valuation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Valuation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Is CRCL Expensive Now? Calculating Circle's Stock Price Using the DCF Valuation Model

**Title: Is CRCL Expensive Now? A DCF Valuation Analysis of Circle's Stock** **Summary:** This analysis uses a discounted cash flow (DCF) model to estimate the fair value of Circle (CRCL) stock, focusing on its USDC stablecoin business. Key assumptions include: USDC circulation of $70 billion by end-2025, growing at an average annual rate of 15% from 2026 to 2035; a 2.5% average benchmark interest rate; 38% gross margin; fixed operating costs of $500 million in 2025, increasing 10% annually; 24% effective tax rate; 10% discount rate; and a terminal PE multiple of 20. The fully diluted share count is 275 million. The model calculates EBITDA as interest income (USDC circulation × interest rate × margin) minus fixed costs. Free cash flow (FCF) is derived after taxes. The present value of explicit FCF (2026–2035) is $2.282 billion, and the terminal value (2035 FCF × 20) discounted to 2026 is $7.138 billion. The total enterprise value (EV) is $9.42 billion, implying a fair stock price of $34.25 per share as of January 2026. Sensitivity analysis shows that if USDC growth averages 20% annually, the fair value rises to ~$62 per share, suggesting potential margin of safety at current prices (around $62 in early February 2026). However, short-term volatility, forced sellers, and leverage risks are highlighted. The model is conservative, excluding other revenue streams (e.g., Circle’s emerging products like Arc chain) and emphasizing USDC’s growth and competitive sustainability as key variables. Historical USDC growth (2020–2025 CAGR ~76%) is noted but not assumed to continue. The conclusion underscores the need for evidence-based conviction to withstand market noise. *Note: This is a thought experiment, not investment advice.*

marsbit02/03 06:06

Is CRCL Expensive Now? Calculating Circle's Stock Price Using the DCF Valuation Model

marsbit02/03 06:06

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