# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Valuation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Valuation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

SpaceX and OpenAI Are About to Go Public, Your Index Fund Might Be Forced to 'Buy at the Peak'

The imminent mega-IPOs of companies like SpaceX and OpenAI pose a significant risk to index fund investors, who may be forced to buy these overvalued stocks at peak prices. Index funds, designed to replicate market performance, must purchase new listings once they are included in major indices, often through "fast entry" rules that allow inclusion within days. This creates a hidden cost: hedge funds and other intermediaries front-run these predictable purchases, driving up prices before the inclusion date, after which the shares typically underperform. Historical data shows that IPOs, especially those with low float (like SpaceX’s planned <5% float), tend to dramatically underperform the market over time. High valuations, low float, and forced buying during index rebalancing result in a performance drag for passive investors, effectively acting as a hidden tax. Attempting to invest pre-IPO via private markets is also risky due to survivor bias, high fees, and liquidity issues. For index investors, this costly mechanism is an unavoidable aspect of passive investing.

marsbit04/23 13:11

SpaceX and OpenAI Are About to Go Public, Your Index Fund Might Be Forced to 'Buy at the Peak'

marsbit04/23 13:11

20 Billion Valuation, Alibaba and Tencent Competing to Invest, Whose Money Will Liang Wenfeng Take?

DeepSeek, an AI startup founded by Liang Wenfeng, is reportedly in talks with Alibaba and Tencent for an external funding round that could value the company at over $20 billion. This marks a significant shift, as DeepSeek had previously relied solely on funding from its parent company,幻方量化 (Huanfang Quantitative), and had resisted external investment. The potential valuation would place DeepSeek among the top-tier AI model companies in China, comparable to competitors like MoonDark (valued at ~$18 billion) and ahead of recently listed firms like MiniMax and Zhipu. The funding—which could range from $600 million (for a 3% stake) to $2 billion (for 10%)—is seen as a move to secure resources for model development, retain talent, and support infrastructure needs, particularly as competition in inference models and AI agents intensifies. Both Alibaba and Tencent are eager to invest, not only for financial returns but also to integrate DeepSeek into their broader AI ecosystems. However, DeepSeek’s leadership is cautious about maintaining independence and may prefer financial investors over strategic ones to avoid being locked into a specific tech ecosystem. Alternative options, such as state-backed funds, offer longer-term capital and policy support but may come with slower decision-making and potential constraints on global expansion. With competing AI firms accelerating their IPO plans, DeepSeek’s window for securing optimal terms may be narrowing. The final decision will reflect a trade-off between capital, resources, and strategic independence.

marsbit04/23 09:53

20 Billion Valuation, Alibaba and Tencent Competing to Invest, Whose Money Will Liang Wenfeng Take?

marsbit04/23 09:53

Unicorn Report: Within an Hour's Drive of the Bay Area, 90% of the World's AI Market Value is Concentrated

The 2025 Unicorn Report by Elad Gil reveals a dramatic concentration of AI unicorn value in the San Francisco Bay Area, which now holds 91% of the global generative AI unicorn market capitalization within a one-hour drive radius. The U.S. dominates globally with 65% of all unicorn value, a significant increase from previous years. While the rate of new unicorn creation has slowed post-2022, the average valuation of existing unicorns has reached a six-year high, driven overwhelmingly by AI companies. Generative AI unicorns saw an average valuation increase of $2.2 billion, far outpacing non-AI unicorns. The data indicates a powerful clustering effect, with the Bay Area solidifying its position as the world's premier AI hub, while other U.S. cities like New York and Los Angeles specialize in fintech/crypto and aerospace/defense, respectively.

marsbit04/23 07:12

Unicorn Report: Within an Hour's Drive of the Bay Area, 90% of the World's AI Market Value is Concentrated

marsbit04/23 07:12

$500 to Buy OpenAI Stock: Silicon Valley's Most Respectable Liquidity Invitation

Silicon Valley's largest venture capital platform, AngelList, has launched a new fund called USVC, allowing U.S. retail investors to buy into high-profile AI companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI with a minimum investment of $500—no accredited investor status required. Promoted by AngelList co-founder Naval Ravikant, the fund is framed as an opportunity for ordinary people to access high-growth private tech investments traditionally reserved for VCs. However, critics argue it functions more like an exit vehicle for early insiders. USVC acquires shares not through primary rounds but largely via secondary transactions—purchasing stakes from early investors, VC funds, and employees looking to cash out at peak valuations. With companies like xAI heavily weighted in the portfolio, the fund effectively channels retail money into providing liquidity for insiders who entered at much lower valuations. The fund’s structure raises concerns: shares are illiquid, with no secondary market, and buybacks are limited and discretionary. The actual annual fee reaches 3.61%, far above the advertised 1% management fee. This model parallels the "low float, high fully diluted valuation" strategy seen in crypto, where early investors profit by selling to latecomers at inflated prices. The timing—alongside similar moves by platforms like Robinhood—suggests that Silicon Valley’s sudden interest in retail inclusion may be less about democratizing access and more about securing exits for insiders.

marsbit04/23 05:31

$500 to Buy OpenAI Stock: Silicon Valley's Most Respectable Liquidity Invitation

marsbit04/23 05:31

SpaceX Ties Up with Cursor: A High-Stakes AI Gambit of 'Lock First, Acquire Later'

SpaceX has secured an option to acquire AI programming company Cursor for $60 billion, with an alternative clause requiring a $10 billion collaboration fee if the acquisition does not proceed. This structure is not merely a potential acquisition but a strategic move to control core access points in the AI era. The deal is designed as a flexible, dual-path arrangement, allowing SpaceX to either fully acquire Cursor or maintain a binding partnership through high-cost collaboration. This "option-style" approach minimizes immediate regulatory and integration risks while ensuring long-term alignment between the two companies. At its core, the transaction exchanges critical AI-era resources: SpaceX provides its Colossus supercomputing cluster—one of the world’s most powerful AI training infrastructures—while Cursor contributes its AI-native developer environment and strong product adoption. This synergy connects compute power, models, and application layers, forming a closed-loop AI capability stack. Cursor, founded in 2022, has achieved rapid growth with over $1 billion in annual revenue and widespread enterprise adoption. Its value lies in transforming software development through AI agents capable of coding, debugging, and system design—positioning it as a gateway to future software production. For SpaceX, this move is part of a broader strategy to evolve from a aerospace company into an AI infrastructure empire, integrating xAI, supercomputing, and chip manufacturing. Controlling Cursor fills a gap in its developer tooling layer, strengthening its AI narrative ahead of a potential IPO. The deal reflects a shift in AI competition from model superiority to ecosystem and entry-point control. With programming tools as a key battleground, securing developer loyalty becomes crucial for dominating the software production landscape. Risks include questions around Cursor’s valuation, technical integration challenges, and potential regulatory scrutiny. Nevertheless, the deal underscores a strategic bet: controlling both compute and software development access may redefine power dynamics in the AI-driven future.

marsbit04/23 00:41

SpaceX Ties Up with Cursor: A High-Stakes AI Gambit of 'Lock First, Acquire Later'

marsbit04/23 00:41

Liquidity Forecasts Show Ozak AI Reaching a $1.5 Billion Fully Diluted Valuation Soon After Launch

Updated liquidity forecasts indicate that Ozak AI is positioned to reach a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $1.5 billion shortly after its initial exchange listings. With over $6.8 million raised in its presale—priced at $0.014 per token—and more than 1.17 billion tokens already sold, the project has demonstrated strong early capital formation, reducing downside risk during price discovery. Analysts highlight that Ozak AI’s concentrated early supply and capital-efficient structure could allow smaller liquidity injections to drive significant valuation expansion, potentially bypassing lower valuation ranges entirely. The project’s AI-native infrastructure—including Prediction Agents, the Ozak Stream Network, Data Vaults, EigenLayer integration, and Arbitrum Orbit deployment—supports higher valuation multiples by offering tangible utility rather than speculative appeal. Partnerships with Pyth Network, SINT, HIVE Intel, and Weblume further strengthen liquidity confidence and exchange adoption prospects. With robust presale performance, functional AI infrastructure, and favorable liquidity dynamics, Ozak AI is emerging as a liquidity-driven growth asset with the potential for rapid post-launch valuation scaling.

TheNewsCrypto04/22 14:59

Liquidity Forecasts Show Ozak AI Reaching a $1.5 Billion Fully Diluted Valuation Soon After Launch

TheNewsCrypto04/22 14:59

K2.6 is Yang Zhilin's First Roadshow

K2.6 is Yang Zhilin's first roadshow for Moonshot AI's upcoming IPO. The release of K2.6 marks a strategic shift from a developer-focused approach to one aimed at investors and enterprise clients. Key changes include a 58% price increase for API inputs, structured to favor locked-in enterprise users over casual customers. The model is positioned against previous-generation international models like GPT-5.4 rather than the latest competitors, framing it as "first-tier." It also introduces large-scale Agent clusters (300+ agents) and open-source offerings, targeting enterprise automation scenarios. These moves are seen as preparations for K3, a anticipated 3-4 trillion parameter model. With Moonshot's valuation rising to $18 billion, K2.6 is a crucial step to demonstrate commercial viability and market positioning ahead of a potential late-2026 IPO.

marsbit04/22 10:45

Exploring Bitcoin Valuation in 2026 from Macro and On-Chain Structural Perspectives

Tiger Research analyzes Bitcoin's valuation outlook for 2026 from macro and on-chain perspectives. Despite a 27% price drop in Q1, the macro environment remains supportive. Global M2 hit a record $13.44 trillion, but Chinese liquidity, which contributed over 60% of M2 growth, has limited access to Bitcoin markets. The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, raising March CPI to 3.3% and narrowing the Fed's rate cut path. However, the easing direction remains intact. Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive in March after five months of outflows, and corporate accumulation continues. On-chain metrics show a shift from undervaluation to early equilibrium. Key indicators like MVRV-Z and NUPL have exited panic zones. The critical resistance is at $78k, the long-term holder cost basis, while the key support is at $54k. Although transaction counts increased, active addresses and average transfer size declined, indicating superficial growth rather than real network expansion. BTCFi ecosystem growth has weakened, leading to a -10% adjustment in fundamental metrics. The 12-month price target is set at $143k, based on a $132.5k neutral benchmark adjusted by -10% (fundamentals) and +20% (macro). This represents a 103% upside from current levels. Short-term catalysts include a break above $78k, sustained ETF inflows, and a Fed policy shift post-geopolitical de-escalation.

marsbit04/22 08:14

Exploring Bitcoin Valuation in 2026 from Macro and On-Chain Structural Perspectives

marsbit04/22 08:14

VCs on 2025 Crypto Investments: 84% of 118 Tokens Break Issue Price, Only One Type of Company is Quietly Making Money

Crypto investor Ching Tseng categorizes the market into four quadrants based on two axes: crypto-native vs. traditional finance (TradFi)-oriented, and having traction vs. no traction. In 2025, 84.7% of 118 tracked token launches fell below their issuance price, with a median fully diluted valuation drop of 71%. Crypto-native projects without traction are experiencing massive capital destruction, often relying on speculative narratives without sustainable revenue or user retention. Crypto-native teams with traction, often built in prior cycles, generate real revenue but face structural challenges with their tokens lacking direct value capture mechanisms. While some have implemented successful buyback programs, the core issue remains finding growth beyond crypto volatility. TradFi-oriented startups without traction face long, costly enterprise sales cycles but benefit from a robust M&A environment, with crypto acquisitions reaching a record $8.6 billion in 2025. The current winners are TradFi-oriented companies with traction, particularly in the Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization space, which grew from $5.5B to $18.6B in 2025. They are winning through enterprise sales, building alliances, and improving unit economics on established compliance stacks. Their main risk is being bypassed by large incumbent institutions building their own infrastructure. The overarching theme is market maturation, where narrative alone is insufficient for long-term success.

marsbit04/22 03:44

VCs on 2025 Crypto Investments: 84% of 118 Tokens Break Issue Price, Only One Type of Company is Quietly Making Money

marsbit04/22 03:44

GMO Legendary Prophet Shorts Again: AI Can't Save U.S. Stocks, Current Market as Dangerous as 2000

Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO and renowned for identifying major market bubbles, warns that the current U.S. stock market resembles the dangerous conditions of 2000, arguing that AI hype cannot prevent a significant downturn. He emphasizes that high valuations historically precede difficult periods, not higher growth, and cautions that despite AI-driven enthusiasm, underlying economic challenges—including geopolitical instability, climate costs, and demographic decline—are being ignored. Grantham notes that while non-U.S. equities appear reasonably priced, the U.S. market is excessively valued. He compares today’s AI narrative to the internet boom of 1999, stressing that expensive markets eventually correct. His approach relies on value investing principles, avoiding overpriced assets and focusing on long-term fundamentals rather than market timing. Grantham also highlights structural market inefficiencies, such as the persistent outperformance of high-quality stocks, and criticizes the financial industry for promoting optimism despite clear risks.

marsbit04/21 10:35

GMO Legendary Prophet Shorts Again: AI Can't Save U.S. Stocks, Current Market as Dangerous as 2000