# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Valuation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Valuation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Volatility Without Reward: Why Bitcoin’s MVRV Signals A High-Risk, Zero-Return Regime

Bitcoin is experiencing heightened volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and fragile liquidity, with weakened directional conviction and constrained risk appetite. Analysis indicates a sharp decline in risk-adjusted returns, as both 365-day and 180-day Sharpe Ratios have turned deeply negative, signaling that recent volatility has not been compensated by positive returns. The MVRV Z-Score currently sits at 0.49, indicating neutral valuation—neither overbought nor at capitulation levels. This suggests a high-risk, low-return environment, lacking the historical buy signals that appear when valuations are deeply negative. A clear catalyst is needed to determine the next directional move.

bitcoinist03/04 07:32

Volatility Without Reward: Why Bitcoin’s MVRV Signals A High-Risk, Zero-Return Regime

bitcoinist03/04 07:32

OpenAI Is Turning AI into a Nuclear Arms Race That Ordinary People Can't Afford

In a record-breaking funding round, OpenAI has secured $110 billion, raising its post-money valuation to $840 billion. This investment, led by Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank, marks the largest-ever private tech funding and signals a new phase in the global AI race—one defined by extreme capital concentration and geopolitical significance. The scale of funding dwarfs the GDP of many mid-sized nations and equals nearly half of NVIDIA’s annual revenue. It also accounts for more than half of all AI startup funding in 2025, accelerating an industry-wide arms race in compute, talent, and model development. This capital influx, however, risks widening the gap between giants and smaller players, potentially stifling innovation and increasing market consolidation. Strategic investors are not merely providing capital: Amazon’s $50 billion commitment includes an eight-year, $100 billion cloud expansion deal. SoftBank’s $30 billion staged investment serves as both a hedge and a bridge for future sovereign wealth entrants. NVIDIA’s $30 billion replaces an earlier partnership promise and effectively locks up its advanced GPU supply, creating a closed loop that sidelines competitors. Despite ChatGPT reaching 900 million weekly active users and 50 million paid subscribers, OpenAI’s burn rate remains high. It spent $0.62 for every dollar earned in 2025, with cumulative cash burn projected to hit $1150 billion by 2029. At the same time, its market share is eroding amid rising competition from Google’s Gemini and Musk’s Grok. Facing mounting financial pressure, OpenAI is eyeing a potential IPO in Q4 2026. The offering could mark either the peak of the AI investment bubble or the beginning of the AGI era—but for now, the world watches as OpenAI races against capital, competition, and time.

marsbit02/28 11:46

OpenAI Is Turning AI into a Nuclear Arms Race That Ordinary People Can't Afford

marsbit02/28 11:46

Safety Narrative Meets Reality Squeeze: How Anthropic Fell into an Identity Crisis?

In a span of seventy-two hours, Anthropic faced a severe identity crisis amid pressure from the U.S. Pentagon, public accusations from Elon Musk, and a major shift in its safety policy. The Pentagon issued an ultimatum: allow Claude to be used for "all lawful purposes," including autonomous weapons targeting and domestic mass surveillance, by Friday 5:01 PM, or risk losing a $2 billion contract and being blacklisted as a "supply chain risk." Anthropic initially resisted, citing ethical red lines. Simultaneously, Elon Musk accused Anthropic of large-scale training data theft, referencing a $1.5 billion settlement over using pirated books. Anthropic also accused three Chinese AI firms of "industrial-scale distillation attacks" on Claude, framing it as a national security threat—a move widely criticized as hypocritical. In a pivotal shift, Anthropic released its Responsible Scaling Policy (RSP) 3.0, removing its core commitment to halt training if safety measures were inadequate. The company cited competitive pressure and lack of industry-wide consensus as reasons. With a $380 billion valuation and rapid growth, Anthropic’s balancing act between its safety-brand identity and commercial-military demands appears increasingly unstable. Its narrative as a "responsible AI" leader is collapsing under political, competitive, and ethical pressures.

比推02/27 13:48

Safety Narrative Meets Reality Squeeze: How Anthropic Fell into an Identity Crisis?

比推02/27 13:48

L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly, ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks

The article "L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly: ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks" argues that Layer-1 blockchains face a structural, not cyclical, problem: their ability to capture value through transaction fees is systematically eroded by innovation. Historically, periods of high demand (e.g., Bitcoin congestion, Ethereum's DeFi Summer, Solana's memecoin frenzy) create fee revenue peaks. However, these peaks inevitably stimulate the creation of cheaper alternatives that siphon away this income. The core finding is that open, permissionless networks cannot sustain high fee revenues; profitability is consistently competed away. **Key Examples:** * **Bitcoin:** Fee spikes from congestion (2017, 2021) were quickly mitigated by innovations like SegWit, batching, the Lightning Network, and wrapped BTC. The 2024-2025 bull run saw minimal fee growth despite a 3x price increase, with ETFs providing massive BTC exposure without on-chain fees. * **Ethereum:** The 2020-2021 fee boom from DeFi and NFTs was dismantled by competing L1s and, crucially, its own L2 scaling solutions. The Dencun upgrade (EIP-4844) drastically reduced data costs for L2s, causing Ethereum's L1 fee revenue to collapse by over 95% from its peak. * **Solana:** Its revenue relies heavily on MEV/tips from volatile memecoin trading. This income is now being compressed by private AMMs (which hide liquidity to prevent MEV) and platforms like Hyperliquid, which are moving the most profitable price discovery activity off-chain. **Impact on Token Valuation:** The market is shifting from valuing L1s based on "on-chain profit" to "asset narratives" and "structural capital flows." The analysis suggests: * **ETH:** Now resembles a low-yield infrastructure asset. Its fee compression is structural and ongoing. * **SOL:** While network activity may hit new highs, its matured fee-capturing mechanisms mean MEV revenue is unlikely to return to previous peaks, making a new all-time high price difficult. * **HYPE (Hyperliquid):** Currently benefits from high fees on its perp DEX. However, its fee model is under immense pressure to compress towards traditional finance (TradFi) rates (e.g., CME), threatening its projected high earnings and potentially its token price. * **BTC:** Its security model is unique and inverted. It relies almost entirely on block subsidies, not fees. Miner survival post-halving depends entirely on the USD price of BTC doubling to offset the 50% reduction in BTC-denominated rewards, making long-term security precariously tied to perpetual price appreciation.

marsbit02/26 08:45

Huobi Growth Academy | Crypto Market Macro Report: Repricing of Crypto Assets Amid Receding Liquidity

In Q1 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced a historic deleveraging crash, with Bitcoin falling over 40% from its peak and Ethereum and altcoins declining even more sharply. The collapse was driven by a confluence of three major liquidity-tightening factors: the unwinding of yen carry trades, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account rebuild draining market liquidity, and systemic increases in derivatives margin requirements. These factors, combined with the crypto market’s inherent high leverage and overvaluation, triggered a cascading sell-off. The report highlights that U.S. stock market’s extreme valuations acted as a ceiling for risk assets, including crypto. The reversal of yen carry trades—where investors borrowed cheap yen to invest in higher-yielding assets like crypto—accelerated as the Bank of Japan signaled a potential end to ultra-loose policies. Simultaneously, the U.S. Treasury’s replenishment of its TGA account and increased bond issuance withdrew nearly $200 billion in liquidity from financial markets. Additionally, rising margin requirements on derivatives exchanges forced further deleveraging, exacerbating the downturn. Crypto’s structural vulnerabilities—such as high leverage, stagnant stablecoin inflows, and declining on-chain activity—amplified the sell-off. Looking ahead, crypto markets are entering a macro-driven phase where liquidity indicators—such as Fed policy, TGA balances, yen-USD exchange rates, and stablecoin flows—will be critical. The market is expected to remain under pressure until macro liquidity conditions improve, likely in the second half of 2026. The era of excess-liquidity-driven growth is over; crypto assets will now be repriced under a new macro-normal regime.

marsbit02/26 08:11

Huobi Growth Academy | Crypto Market Macro Report: Repricing of Crypto Assets Amid Receding Liquidity

marsbit02/26 08:11

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Who is the King of Prediction Markets?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the two dominant players in the prediction market industry, collectively holding 79% market share. Polymarket, crypto-native and globally focused, leads in notional volume ($56.07B) and excels in political and macro markets. Kalshi, CFTC-licensed and US-centric, follows closely ($44.71B) and dominates sports betting, which drives 89% of its revenue. Their competition spans capital raises, marketing, user acquisition, and regulatory strategy. Kalshi leverages traditional channels like Robinhood and TV ads, while Polymarket builds a developer ecosystem and uses crypto-style referral programs. Key challenges remain: Kalshi faces potential competition from its own partners (e.g., Robinhood building its own exchange) and state-level lawsuits. Polymarket, after operating fee-free, has begun charging fees—a critical test for its revenue model. The battle reflects a broader conflict: whether the future of information markets belongs to crypto or traditional finance. Both are expanding into each other’s strengths—Polymarket into US sports, Kalshi into political media integration. The industry is still young, and the ultimate winner is yet to be determined.

marsbit02/26 05:11

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Who is the King of Prediction Markets?

marsbit02/26 05:11

AI Era's 'Scarce Assets'? Goldman Sachs: HALO—Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence

In the AI era, market focus is shifting from scalable, light-asset business models to valuing hard-to-replicate physical assets and infrastructure, a trend Goldman Sachs terms "HALO" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). This reflects a repricing of scarcity driven by higher real interest rates, geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain restructuring, and massive AI-driven capital expenditure. HALO assets—such as power grids, pipelines, utilities, and critical industrial capacity—have high replication barriers (cost, regulation, engineering complexity) and remain economically durable across technology cycles. Meanwhile, AI is undermining the profitability and terminal value of some light-asset sectors (e.g., software, IT services) by reducing information costs and increasing competition. Notably, major tech firms are now becoming large-scale capital spenders, with projected Capex of $1.5 trillion from 2023-2026—surpassing their cumulative historical investment. Since 2025, Goldman’s heavy-asset portfolio (GSSTCAPI) has outperformed its light-asset counterpart (GSSTCAPL) by 35%, driven by valuation rerating rather than broad de-rating of light assets. Macro factors support this shift: higher rates compress valuations of long-duration growth stocks, while manufacturing and capex cycles benefit heavy-asset firms. Earnings momentum is also stronger for heavy-asset companies, with higher expected CAGR (14% vs. 10%) and improving ROE. Despite recent gains, institutional positioning remains underweight value/heavy-asset stocks, suggesting further potential for outperformance.

marsbit02/25 08:50

AI Era's 'Scarce Assets'? Goldman Sachs: HALO—Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence

marsbit02/25 08:50

February's Major Adjustment: Is the Crypto Market Bottoming Out?

February witnessed a significant crypto market downturn, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $61,000, marking one of the worst starts to a year in over a decade. The sell-off was driven by risk aversion, declining liquidity, and ongoing de-leveraging rather than a fundamental collapse in value. Key indicators, such as the negative Coinbase Premium Index and substantial outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, reflected weakened institutional demand and persistent selling pressure, particularly in the U.S. market. Market liquidity thinning exacerbated volatility, with order book depth significantly reduced. Stablecoin growth also stalled, indicating a pause in new capital inflow rather than a broad exodus. Despite the correction, structural advancements continued, exemplified by Hyperliquid’s expansion into real-world asset (RWA) perpetual contracts—such as commodities and equities—showcasing deeper integration between crypto and traditional finance. Bitcoin’s decline approached its realized price, suggesting the market is entering a potential accumulation phase. While valuation metrics like MVRZ indicate undervaluation, they haven’t reached historical bear-market extremes. The ongoing institutional adoption of DeFi infrastructure and regulatory developments, like CME’s 24/7 crypto futures, highlight continued maturation beneath surface volatility. In summary, February’s downturn was largely a liquidity and risk-sentiment stress test. The market’s foundation remains intact, with catalysts like regulatory clarity and capital flow reversal poised to influence future recovery.

marsbit02/25 07:27

February's Major Adjustment: Is the Crypto Market Bottoming Out?

marsbit02/25 07:27

Will Espresso [ESP] hit $1B valuation? Korean listings spark 80% explosion

Espresso (ESP) surged 80% in 24 hours to $0.173, driven by aggressive capital inflows following its listings on major Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb. The breakout was supported by explosive volume of $881M and record Open Interest of $56.03M, indicating strong speculative and spot demand. Historically, Korean listings fuel extended rallies, and with support from Binance and Coinbase, the project's infrastructure narrative gained significant momentum. This capital rotation suggests a potential path toward a $1B valuation, though sustainability depends on continued demand and stable liquidity.

ambcrypto02/25 02:03

Will Espresso [ESP] hit $1B valuation? Korean listings spark 80% explosion