# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Valuation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Valuation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

How Pessimistic Is Wall Street? Goldman Sachs Directly Compares 'Software' to 'Newspapers'

Wall Street's pessimism towards the software sector has reached an extreme, with Goldman Sachs drawing a stark comparison to the newspaper industry's decline in the early 2000s and the regulatory challenges faced by tobacco in the late 1990s. The firm argues that the recent sharp sell-off in software stocks—down 29% from September 2025 highs—reflects a fundamental reassessment of the sector's long-term growth and profitability, not just short-term earnings volatility. Key catalysts include new AI developments from Anthropic and Google, which are now seen as direct threats to software firms' pricing power and business models, rather than mere productivity tools. Despite software valuations falling to multi-year lows (forward P/E of ~20x), Goldman emphasizes that the core issue is not valuation but crumbling growth assumptions. Current multiples imply mid-term revenue growth expectations have collapsed from 15-20% to just 5-10%. The report warns that, as with newspapers and tobacco, valuations alone won't form a bottom; earnings expectations must stabilize first. Investors are already shifting capital toward "real economy" sectors like industrials and energy, while reducing exposure to AI-vulnerable software. Goldman notes some defensive opportunities in vertical software and data-rich companies but stresses that the narrative has shifted from "AI as a growth catalyst" to "AI as an existential threat." The key question is no longer whether software stocks can rebound, but which companies can prove they won't become the next newspapers.

marsbit02/06 05:47

How Pessimistic Is Wall Street? Goldman Sachs Directly Compares 'Software' to 'Newspapers'

marsbit02/06 05:47

Profits Fall by a Quarter: Why Tether Abandoned Its $20 Billion Financing Plan

In the face of a cooling crypto market and investor skepticism, Tether, the world's largest stablecoin issuer, has significantly scaled back its ambitious fundraising plans. Initially targeting $15-20 billion, which would have valued the company at $500 billion, the firm is now considering raising only about $5 billion. CEO Paolo Ardoino downplayed the original target, calling it a "misunderstanding" and a maximum cap, not a goal, while emphasizing that Tether is highly profitable and doesn't urgently need the capital. Despite the success of its USDT stablecoin, which has a market cap of approximately $185 billion, Tether faces persistent investor caution. Concerns revolve around its $500 billion valuation—comparable to major AI firms and SpaceX—ongoing regulatory scrutiny, and the lack of a full independent audit, relying instead on quarterly attestations. Ardoino defended the valuation, contrasting Tether's substantial profits with the losses of highly-valued AI companies. While new U.S. stablecoin legislation and competitor Circle's IPO have boosted momentum, regulatory risks and Tether's controversial history remain hurdles. The company's profits fell by about a quarter in 2025, attributed to declining Bitcoin prices, though it gained $8-10 billion from its gold holdings. Tether's massive scale has made it a major player in U.S. Treasuries and gold markets, positioning it as a critical bridge between traditional finance and the volatile crypto world.

marsbit02/05 09:03

Profits Fall by a Quarter: Why Tether Abandoned Its $20 Billion Financing Plan

marsbit02/05 09:03

Is CRCL Expensive Now? Calculating Circle's Stock Price Using the DCF Valuation Model

**Title: Is CRCL Expensive Now? A DCF Valuation Analysis of Circle's Stock** **Summary:** This analysis uses a discounted cash flow (DCF) model to estimate the fair value of Circle (CRCL) stock, focusing on its USDC stablecoin business. Key assumptions include: USDC circulation of $70 billion by end-2025, growing at an average annual rate of 15% from 2026 to 2035; a 2.5% average benchmark interest rate; 38% gross margin; fixed operating costs of $500 million in 2025, increasing 10% annually; 24% effective tax rate; 10% discount rate; and a terminal PE multiple of 20. The fully diluted share count is 275 million. The model calculates EBITDA as interest income (USDC circulation × interest rate × margin) minus fixed costs. Free cash flow (FCF) is derived after taxes. The present value of explicit FCF (2026–2035) is $2.282 billion, and the terminal value (2035 FCF × 20) discounted to 2026 is $7.138 billion. The total enterprise value (EV) is $9.42 billion, implying a fair stock price of $34.25 per share as of January 2026. Sensitivity analysis shows that if USDC growth averages 20% annually, the fair value rises to ~$62 per share, suggesting potential margin of safety at current prices (around $62 in early February 2026). However, short-term volatility, forced sellers, and leverage risks are highlighted. The model is conservative, excluding other revenue streams (e.g., Circle’s emerging products like Arc chain) and emphasizing USDC’s growth and competitive sustainability as key variables. Historical USDC growth (2020–2025 CAGR ~76%) is noted but not assumed to continue. The conclusion underscores the need for evidence-based conviction to withstand market noise. *Note: This is a thought experiment, not investment advice.*

marsbit02/03 06:06

Is CRCL Expensive Now? Calculating Circle's Stock Price Using the DCF Valuation Model

marsbit02/03 06:06

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