# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Risk

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Risk", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

This Time It's Really Different—Detailed Analysis of the Eight Departments' 'Notice on Further Preventing and Disposing of Virtual Currency and Related Risks'

Summary of the "Notice on Further Preventing and Disposing of Risks Related to Virtual Currency" Jointly Issued by Eight Departments On February 6, 2026, eight Chinese regulatory bodies, including the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Public Security, jointly issued a significant notice (referred to as the "2.6 Notice") targeting risks associated with virtual currencies. This notice marks a pivotal shift in China's regulatory approach, as it explicitly revokes previous key documents, including the 2021 notice (commonly known as the "924 Notice"), which is unprecedented in the history of virtual currency regulation in China. Key changes and implications include: 1. **Broader Regulatory Scope:** Unlike the previous 924 Notice, which focused on "trading and speculation risks," the 2.6 Notice addresses "virtual currency and related risks" more broadly. 2. **New Stance on Stablecoins:** A major breakthrough is the explicit statement that stablecoins pegged to fiat currency are "de facto performing some functions of legal tender." This raises significant concerns, particularly for OTC (over-the-counter) trading platforms, as it could potentially be interpreted as engaging in illegal foreign exchange activities, which carries severe penalties including confiscation of illegal gains and fines up to five times the amount involved. 3. **Strict Prohibition on RWA:** The notice firmly prohibits any Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization activities within China. Domestic entities are completely barred from such activities. Furthermore, foreign companies and individuals are prohibited from providing RWA services to domestic entities. However, a potential avenue is suggested for domestic financial institutions to engage in RWA services *overseas*, subject to specific requirements and supervision under the principle of "same business, same risks, same rules." 4. **Enhanced Enforcement Mechanisms:** The notice outlines a robust, multi-layered enforcement framework ("8+3" – eight central departments plus local internet, procuratorate, and judicial authorities). It emphasizes coordinated central-local efforts, strengthened risk monitoring using advanced technology and data sharing, and a stringent crackdown on illegal activities. This includes a continued ban on virtual currency "mining," severe penalties for crimes like fraud, money laundering, illegal operations, pyramid schemes, and illegal fundraising involving virtual currencies, and mandates for judicial handling of crimes. 5. **Extraterritorial Application:** The notice asserts jurisdiction over domestic entities operating related businesses overseas. They are prohibited from issuing virtual currencies, even outside China. Domestic financial institutions' overseas subsidiaries must comply with specific requirements if providing RWA services abroad. 6. **Legal Responsibility:** A new section explicitly outlining legal liabilities has been added, underscoring the seriousness of the regulatory stance. In summary, the "2.6 Notice" represents a significant hardening of China's position on virtual currencies. It expands regulatory scope, introduces harsh new interpretations (especially concerning stablecoins and OTC trading), completely forbids RWA domestically, and establishes a powerful, technology-driven enforcement regime to prevent and处置 (dispose of) associated risks, potentially reshaping the industry landscape.

比推02/07 01:02

This Time It's Really Different—Detailed Analysis of the Eight Departments' 'Notice on Further Preventing and Disposing of Virtual Currency and Related Risks'

比推02/07 01:02

Quarterly Loss of $12.4 Billion: Why Can’t It Stop Strategy from Frantically Buying Bitcoin?

MicroStrategy (now Strategy) reported a staggering net loss of $12.4 billion in Q4 2025, primarily due to the adoption of a new fair value accounting standard that required marking its holdings to market amid Bitcoin’s sharp decline to around $65,000. Despite the loss, the company aggressively expanded its Bitcoin position, purchasing an additional 41,002 BTC in January 2026, bringing its total holdings to 713,502 BTC — approximately 3.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply — with an average cost of $76,052 per coin. The firm’s core software business, though profitable with $123 million in Q4 revenue, was overshadowed by its Bitcoin-centric strategy. Strategy raised over $25.3 billion in capital during 2025, leveraging financial instruments to amplify its Bitcoin exposure. It maintains $2.25 billion in cash reserves to cover dividends and interest for 2.5 years. CEO Phong Le acknowledged risks, stating that if Bitcoin fell to $8,000, the company might need to restructure debt rather than sell BTC. The firm’s "Bitcoin flywheel" model relies on continuous capital raising and BTC appreciation, but compressed mNAV (1.07) and high-yield preferred shares (STRC, 11.25% dividend) reflect market skepticism. A prolonged downturn could trigger a negative feedback loop: falling BTC value → reduced ability to raise capital → potential forced BTC sales. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor emphasized long-term optimism, citing supportive U.S. policy and institutional adoption, while downplaying quantum computing risks as a decade away. Strategy remains a high-risk, high-reward bet on Bitcoin’s future.

比推02/06 14:44

Quarterly Loss of $12.4 Billion: Why Can’t It Stop Strategy from Frantically Buying Bitcoin?

比推02/06 14:44

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Breaches Key Support, Rebound May Be Just a 'Breather' Rather Than a Reversal

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Breaches Key Support, Rebound More Likely a "Pause" Than a Reversal Following a sharp decline, Bitcoin's price has fallen into a key target range. While the macro environment has improved marginally with stronger US growth indicators and a weaker dollar, Bitcoin has failed to show a clear, sustainable reversal signal. The price action remains caught between macro improvements and insufficient technical repair. A critical technical change is the breach and loss of a major trend level that previously distinguished between a rebound and a structural downtrend. This former support has now turned into resistance. Without a compelling new narrative or clear catalyst, the recent price recovery is more likely a technical rebound within a downtrend rather than a genuine trend reversal. Technically, Bitcoin continues to trade below its 21-week moving average. A sustained break above this level is needed to confirm a trend reversal. Historically, when both medium and long-term support structures are broken, the market tends to enter a prolonged weak phase. Furthermore, the funding structure presents constraints. Despite the sharp price drop, ETF holdings have not decreased significantly. Since their launch, investors have bought approximately $54.3 billion worth of Bitcoin via ETFs at an average cost of $90,000. This has resulted in tens of billions in unrealized losses. This large volume of underwater positions is more likely to create selling pressure on any rebound rather than provide support. In conclusion, despite marginal macro improvements, the weak technical structure, crowded positioning, and declining participation suggest macro positives are unlikely to translate into sustained upward momentum in the short term. The current rebound is more likely a pause within a top formation, with selling pressure potentially overwhelming new buying interest. A strict risk management approach is advised.

Matrixport02/06 09:17

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Breaches Key Support, Rebound May Be Just a 'Breather' Rather Than a Reversal

Matrixport02/06 09:17

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