# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Risk

A Turning Point Approaches: The "Net Long vs. Net Short" Structure Presents a Historically Rare State

The cryptocurrency market is exhibiting a historically rare structure in perpetual futures, with directional long positions nearly equal to directional short positions, signaling a potential major shift (变盘). Analysis using Ethena's transparency dashboard reveals that Ethena's deployed capital, which acts as a proxy for excess long demand in the market, has plummeted to $790 million—just 71% of its 2025 low and 12.9% of its October 2025 peak. This sharp decline, occurring amid relatively stable prices since Bitcoin's crash to $60,000, suggests a significant reduction in speculative long leverage and a rise in directional shorting or hedging demand, particularly from VCs and projects hedging illiquid assets. While this balanced state could theoretically persist, it is extremely uncommon in other asset markets, indicating that a volatility surge and market turn may be imminent.

marsbit03/09 09:17

Bitcoin MACD Drops To Bearish Level Not Seen Since 2022 — Crypto Winter Incoming?

The price of Bitcoin has been struggling to maintain upward momentum, recently failing to break the $74,000 resistance. Technical analyst Tony Severino warns that Bitcoin's two-week Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has dropped to a bearish level not seen since the 2022 Terra (LUNA) collapse. The expanding histogram bars signal strong bearish momentum, suggesting a potential repeat of the 2022 crypto winter, during which Bitcoin fell around 40%. However, as a lagging indicator, the MACD may have already priced in current conditions. Bitcoin is currently trading around $67,520 with little change over the past day.

bitcoinist03/09 09:02

Bitcoin Drops to $66K as Oil Price Surge Hits Global Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) declined to around $66,010, dropping nearly 1.87% in 24 hours and 10% from its recent peak of $73,500 on March 5. Analysts attribute the pullback to macroeconomic factors, including rising oil prices due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil surged to over $110 per barrel, up 22% in a day, increasing inflation concerns and tightening global financial conditions. This risk-off sentiment also affected Asian equity markets, with significant losses in South Korea, Hong Kong, and China. Despite the dip, Bitcoin's resilience is partly due to increased institutional ownership. The cryptocurrency continues to show correlation with traditional equity markets amid geopolitical volatility.

TheNewsCrypto03/09 06:18

"Threat" Harvests Before "Action": How Geopolitical Risk Prices the Crypto Market—Transmission Mechanisms and Outlook

Abstract: Geopolitical risk (GPR), particularly the "threat" phase, acts as a key driver of risk premium repricing in financial markets, with significant implications for crypto assets, which now behave as high-beta risk assets deeply embedded within the global macro cycle. The GPR index, which quantifies risk through media analysis, shows that negative effects are primarily driven by threats rather than actual acts of conflict. GPR impacts crypto through several transmission channels: risk aversion (rising VIX), inflation and rate cut fears (via oil price shocks), and market structure amplifiers (24/7 trading, high leverage, and endogenous liquidity loops). These mechanisms explain crypto’s high-beta nature—often correlating positively with Nasdaq—and its tendency toward violent deleveraging and liquidity contraction during stress. Three scenarios are outlined: base case (震荡修复) – slow recovery if risks stabilize; pessimistic (二次探底) – renewed selloff if conflict escalates and inflation spikes; optimistic (高波动超额反弹) – sharp rebound if risks fade and macro conditions improve. Key insights: 1) Markets price GPR threats early via risk-off shifts; 2) Crypto’s high volatility is structurally inherent; 3) Bitcoin behaves more like a high-beta tech asset than digital gold under most macro conditions, with its safe-haven narrative only materializing during severe sovereign or cross-border stress. Investors must integrate GPR into macro frameworks to dynamically assess risk premiums and liquidity conditions.

marsbit03/08 10:40

Analyzing if Hyperliquid can become the 24/7 derivatives hub – Why and why not?

Crypto markets operate 24/7, providing continuous price discovery, especially during off-hours geopolitical or macroeconomic events, as seen with recent Middle East tensions. Derivatives dominate this ecosystem, with perpetual futures volume vastly exceeding spot trading. Hyperliquid [HYPE], a high-speed Layer-1 blockchain, is emerging as a key decentralized derivatives hub. It features ultra-fast block finality, an on-chain order book, and a cross-margin model. With significant volume and open interest, it is consolidating liquidity in the decentralized space, sometimes offering better order book depth than centralized competitors like Binance. While it has the potential to become a global, 24/7 risk-transfer layer, persistent market fragmentation could limit this advantage.

ambcrypto03/08 00:02

$1.2B liquidity warning – How BlackRock could ‘rock’ the crypto market

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has blocked $1.2 billion in investor withdrawals from its private credit funds, signaling a significant liquidity squeeze. This move has triggered a 7.69% single-day drop in its shares—the largest of the current cycle—and raised concerns across risk assets, including crypto. As a major Bitcoin ETF manager, BlackRock's financial strain highlights overvaluation in the private credit industry and could lead to outflows from its IBIT BTC ETF. If the firm begins selling assets to cover losses, it may further shake investor confidence and increase market uncertainty.

ambcrypto03/07 23:02

Altcoin interest falls: Could an Ethereum breakout spark altseason?

ambcrypto03/07 02:02

Those Who Hate Bitcoin Are 'Plundering' the World with Private Credit

Author Jeff Park argues that private credit is the latest and most insidious financial innovation designed to conceal risk, ultimately socializing losses onto unsuspecting pensioners and insurance policyholders. Unlike past instruments like junk bonds or structured credit, private credit is structured to be opaque, with slow, smoothed valuations that hide problems until catastrophic, instantaneous write-downs occur (like BlackRock recently writing two loans to zero). The article posits that the 2008 crisis didn't eliminate risk but pushed it into a shadow banking system. The $2 trillion private credit market, now funding major AI projects, creates a perverse cycle: workers' retirement savings are used for automation that may eliminate their jobs. The core criticism is the flawed incentive structure: fund managers collect fees upfront while long lock-ups and a lack of transparency ensure that retirees and ordinary investors bear all the losses when the investments fail, making it a form of "theft of time" where profits are privatized and losses are socialized.

marsbit03/06 09:53

Four Wars, One Logic: How Capital Reshapes Asset Prices in Conflict

The article analyzes how capital markets react to geopolitical conflicts through the lens of four major wars over the past 36 years: the 1991 Gulf War, the 2003 Iraq War, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the current Middle East tensions. It identifies a recurring pattern: markets fear uncertainty most, leading to surges in oil and gold prices and stock sell-offs during pre-conflict phases. However, once conflicts begin and outcomes become predictable, markets often reverse—oil and gold retreat while equities rebound sharply. Key insights include: - Markets discount uncertainty rather than conflict itself. - Commodity spikes are often temporary unless supply chains are fundamentally disrupted (as in Ukraine’s case). - Equities tend to bottom when conflict erupts, validating the Wall Street adage "buy when cannons roar." - Crypto behaves more like a high-risk asset (correlated with tech stocks) than a safe haven. The article advises defensive strategies: holding cash, hedging with gold/energy ETFs, focusing on broad equity indices, avoiding leverage, and resisting speculative bets. It emphasizes capital preservation over profit-seeking in volatile times.

比推03/06 06:14

Humanity Protocol jumps 11% – Will lurking bears take away H’s gains?

Humanity Protocol (H) surged 11% in the past day, driven by combined activity in spot and derivatives markets, with a total trading volume of $65.26 million. While spot selling pressure has declined to a multi-month low, suggesting growing bullish sentiment, the market faces significant downside risks. Liquidation data shows a near 1:1 ratio between long and short liquidations, indicating uncertainty and a lack of clear directional bias. Additionally, liquidation clusters are more concentrated below the current price, potentially acting as a downward magnet if momentum weakens. Despite the rally, traders are advised to remain cautious due to elevated volatility and the potential for a sudden reversal.

ambcrypto03/06 00:02