# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Monetary Policy

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Monetary Policy", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Has a Global Economic Recession Quietly Begun?

The article examines the potential onset of a global recession not merely as an economic outcome but as a strategic state shaped by energy shocks, geopolitical tensions, and constrained monetary policies. Central banks, particularly in energy-import-dependent economies like Japan and the Eurozone, face a policy "trap": they cannot ease without risking entrenched inflation nor tighten without crushing fragile growth. This dynamic redistributes geopolitical leverage, as recession weakens a nation’s negotiating power, capital attractiveness, and external credibility. Governments are thus using fiscal and diplomatic tools to buy time and avoid being forced into negotiations during a downturn. The analysis suggests that markets are increasingly pricing in the expectation that policymakers will tolerate asset valuation inflation to avoid recession, with capital flows and currency movements reflecting which economies escape these constraints. The piece concludes that the interplay between macroeconomics and geopolitics is driving a systemic shift, where traditional monetary tools are失效 and strategic positioning is paramount.

marsbit03/31 04:35

Has a Global Economic Recession Quietly Begun?

marsbit03/31 04:35

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

The article analyzes the divergence between gold and oil prices following the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war. While oil prices surged significantly, gold experienced a decline, contrary to expectations given its traditional role as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises. Gold serves three primary hedging functions: against geopolitical risk, inflation risk, and U.S. dollar risk. Since late 2023, gold had been in a strong bull market, rising from $1,800 to over $5,000, driven by simultaneous geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts), inflationary pressures, and a weakening dollar due to the Fed's premature rate cuts. However, after the U.S. "decapitation" strike on Iran, gold prices fell sharply. This was attributed to two main factors: a shift of capital from gold to oil, as investors repositioned portfolios to capitalize on rising oil prices, and a liquidity crisis in U.S. financial markets that forced large-scale sell-offs of gold—a highly liquid asset—to meet redemption demands. More critically, growing pessimism about a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict raised fears of sustained high oil prices, potential global economic disruption, and a possible reversal of Fed monetary policy (delayed cuts or even renewed hikes). This expectation of tighter policy caused gold’s dollar-related hedging function to reverse, overwhelming its geopolitical and inflation hedging roles and leading to a severe correction. Oil prices also experienced volatility. They initially spiked to nearly $120 per barrel post-strike, then fell by 30% on Trump’s hints of a quick resolution, but rebounded as market expectations corrected when the conflict persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remained threatened. The outlook for both commodities depends on the evolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict. If it becomes a prolonged war like Ukraine, gold may lack short-term value as monetary fears prevail, while oil and energy assets may benefit. A critical factor will be whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, which hinges on geopolitical decisions ahead.

marsbit03/23 02:20

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

marsbit03/23 02:20

Gate Research Institute: Will the Weakening US Dollar in 2026 Be Met by Stablecoin Demand?

The article "Gate Research Institute: Will Stablecoins Absorb Marginal Dollar Demand Amid a Weakening USD in 2026?" explores the structural decline of the US dollar and the growing role of stablecoins in absorbing dollar demand outside the traditional banking system. Key points include: - The USD is weakening due to declining purchasing power, fiscal dominance, and low real interest rates, yet global demand for dollars remains strong. - Traditional banks, constrained by regulation and risk management, are reducing dollar services, creating spillover demand that stablecoins are filling. - Stablecoins like USDT and USDC have expanded significantly, with total market cap exceeding $3.09 trillion by early 2026, and are increasingly used in transactions, DeFi, and cross-border payments. - Different stablecoins vary in collateral quality and transparency, leading to an implicit credit hierarchy where asset backing and issuer credibility determine stability and liquidity preference. - Stablecoins are becoming major buyers of short-term US Treasuries, exerting downward pressure on short-term yields and influencing dollar liquidity dynamics. - By 2026, stablecoins are expected to act as a "reservoir" and distribution layer for dollars, extending the currency’s reach without challenging its reserve status, while subtly reshaping short-term funding markets.

marsbit03/19 09:42

Gate Research Institute: Will the Weakening US Dollar in 2026 Be Met by Stablecoin Demand?

marsbit03/19 09:42

After 6 Quarters of Calling for Rate Cuts, Rate Expectations Are Instead Moving Upwards

In September 2024, the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle, projecting a median federal funds rate of 3.4% by the end of 2025—implying four additional cuts. However, six quarters later, the March SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) reveals a significant shift: the rate now stands at 3.50%-3.75%, 25 basis points higher than initially expected. The median projection for 2026 has also risen from 2.9% to 3.4%. The Fed’s internal consensus has fractured. Out of 19 FOMC participants, seven now expect no rate cuts in 2026, while seven anticipate only one cut. This 7:7 split reflects a fundamental disagreement over the direction of monetary policy, moving from debates over the magnitude of cuts to whether cuts should occur at all. Persistent inflation is the core issue. The Fed has consistently revised its PCE inflation forecasts upward over the past six quarters, with the 2026 projection now at 2.7%—up 0.6 percentage points from initial estimates. Core PCE, a key indicator of underlying inflation, was revised up sharply to 2.7%, signaling entrenched price pressures. Despite slightly raising its GDP growth forecast to 2.4% and holding unemployment steady at 4.4%, the Fed’s unchanged median rate projection conflicts with its own rising inflation outlook. Market expectations remain more dovish, pricing in around 50 basis points of cuts, but the Fed’s internal division and consistent underestimation of inflation suggest continued uncertainty. The central bank is effectively chasing reality, with no clear consensus on the path ahead.

marsbit03/19 02:30

After 6 Quarters of Calling for Rate Cuts, Rate Expectations Are Instead Moving Upwards

marsbit03/19 02:30

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair: A pro-crypto shift?

President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, potentially ending their longstanding conflict over interest rate policy. Warsh, known for his inflation-hawk stance, is expected to pursue aggressive rate cuts amid rising geopolitical tensions and energy-driven inflation risks. The nomination faces Senate opposition, led by Senator Thom Tillis, who vows to block any nominee until a DOJ investigation into Powell is resolved. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surpassed $72,000, but market sentiment remains cautious. If Warsh cuts rates while inflation persists, it could weaken the U.S. dollar and boost appeal for crypto as a store of value.

ambcrypto03/05 10:47

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair: A pro-crypto shift?

ambcrypto03/05 10:47

Stablecoins Pose Fresh Risk To Eurozone Lending, ECB Says

The European Central Bank (ECB) warns that the growing use of privately issued stablecoins could threaten traditional bank deposits in the eurozone. If households and businesses shift cash into stablecoins instead of bank accounts, lenders may face funding shortages, potentially raising borrowing costs and slowing lending. ECB researchers highlight that stablecoins, especially those pegged to the U.S. dollar, could weaken the euro’s role in daily transactions and disrupt monetary policy transmission. Widespread adoption may reduce the predictability of interest rate changes and amplify liquidity risks during market stress. The stablecoin market, now valued at over $300 billion, could reach $2 trillion by 2028. The ECB emphasizes oversight rather than a ban, pointing to the EU’s existing crypto regulatory framework.

bitcoinist03/04 16:02

Stablecoins Pose Fresh Risk To Eurozone Lending, ECB Says

bitcoinist03/04 16:02

ECB study warns stablecoins could shrink bank deposits and alter monetary policy transmission

A new European Central Bank (ECB) working paper warns that widespread adoption of stablecoins could significantly reduce bank deposits, constrain lending, and complicate the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area. The study identifies a "deposit substitution effect," where stablecoins compete with retail bank deposits, potentially forcing banks to rely more on volatile wholesale funding. This shift could weaken banks' lending capacity and make monetary policy less predictable, especially if U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoins gain traction, indirectly exposing the euro area to foreign monetary shocks. While current impacts are limited due to stablecoins' niche use in crypto trading, the paper cautions that large-scale adoption could structurally alter the traditional banking system.

ambcrypto03/03 17:57

ECB study warns stablecoins could shrink bank deposits and alter monetary policy transmission

ambcrypto03/03 17:57

A Longer Iran War Could Send Bitcoin Higher, Arthur Hayes Says

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues that a prolonged US military conflict with Iran could become a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin. He suggests that such a war would likely pressure the Federal Reserve to implement monetary easing—cutting interest rates and increasing liquidity—to support the economy and stabilize markets amid heightened uncertainty. Hayes cites historical precedents, including the Fed's responses to the Gulf War and the 9/11 attacks, where geopolitical shocks led to easier monetary policy. He advises waiting for clear policy signals, like a Fed rate cut, before aggressively buying Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $66,218.

bitcoinist03/02 12:01

A Longer Iran War Could Send Bitcoin Higher, Arthur Hayes Says

bitcoinist03/02 12:01

How to Survive the Era of 'Gradual Money Printing' — The Fed, Gold, and Bitcoin According to Lyn Alden

Lyn Alden, a global macro strategist, analyzes the current era as the late stage of a long-term debt cycle characterized by high debt-to-GDP ratios, structurally low interest rates, and a gradual shift of leverage from the private to the public sector. This phase involves "soft deleveraging" through inflation and currency devaluation, leading to institutional distrust, political polarization, and increased trade friction. Alden discusses the Federal Reserve’s constrained independence under high debt pressures, predicting a shift toward "gradual money printing" rather than aggressive easing. She highlights strong gold performance driven by central bank diversification and geopolitical tensions, while Bitcoin lags due to institutional risk reassessment and slower adoption. Alden envisions a multipolar future monetary system with regional currencies and neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin. For asset allocation, she recommends a diversified approach: high-quality global equities, hard assets (gold, Bitcoin, energy infrastructure), and liquid cash to navigate uncertainty and volatility. The overarching theme is structured patience in a slowly evolving financial landscape.

比推02/19 23:36

How to Survive the Era of 'Gradual Money Printing' — The Fed, Gold, and Bitcoin According to Lyn Alden

比推02/19 23:36

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly Seeks Lower Inflation, Will it Impact Cryptocurrencies?

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the need to further lower inflation, despite the current rate of 2.40% being close to the Fed's 2% target. She highlighted the role of restrictive policies and AI in achieving this, while also expressing concerns about labor market vulnerabilities. Lower inflation could boost investor confidence and potentially benefit riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. However, the crypto market is currently experiencing volatility, with Bitcoin dropping below $67k amid broader geopolitical worries. The article notes that multiple factors influence crypto prices, urging thorough research before investing. It concludes by mentioning Donald Trump's ambition to make the U.S. a global crypto hub, despite ongoing challenges like trade tensions with China.

TheNewsCrypto02/19 11:05

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly Seeks Lower Inflation, Will it Impact Cryptocurrencies?