# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Macro

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Macro", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

The Powell Era Concludes: Warsh Takes Over the Fed, What It Means for Global Finance and the Crypto Market?

The podcast discusses the implications of Jerome Powell's departure and Kevin Warsh's appointment as Federal Reserve Chair for global markets and crypto. It highlights a significant divergence between bond markets, which price in global tightening and persistent inflation, and equity markets, driven by AI hype—a disparity reminiscent of the dot-com bubble. The analysis introduces the "Bliss Trade" concept, a structural expectation of government stimulus during crises, which underpins risk asset valuations and currency debasement trades. Inflation is seen as sticky, driven by deglobalization and further complicated by geopolitical tensions, unlikely to fall quickly even if immediate crises subside. Powell's tenure is critiqued for misjudging inflation and overseeing the de-banking of crypto firms, despite defending Fed independence. Regarding crypto, Bitcoin is viewed as a macro asset and a hedge against currency debasement, but its current muted performance stems from competition with higher-beta assets like AI stocks. The potential Clarity Act is seen as more beneficial for Ethereum than Bitcoin, with concerns about tokenization innovation leading to pure speculation. A key warning signal is the widening gap between the market-cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 indices, suggesting underlying market fragility.

marsbit7 ч. назад

The Powell Era Concludes: Warsh Takes Over the Fed, What It Means for Global Finance and the Crypto Market?

marsbit7 ч. назад

Senior Analyst Dialogue: What Powell's Departure and Warsh's Appointment Mean for Crypto?

The podcast episode "Powell Is Out, Warsh Is In: What It Means for Crypto" features an analysis by Noelle Acheson on the macro-economic landscape and its implications for crypto. Key discussion points include: * **Equity-Bond Divergence:** Acheson highlights a significant and growing disconnect between stock and bond markets. While bond yields rise globally, signaling tighter financial conditions, equities are driven by AI-related hype and speculation, reminiscent of the 1999 dot-com bubble. * **'Bliss Trade' and Systemic Fragility:** The discussion explores the concept of a structural, cross-party government expectation to provide fiscal support ("Bliss Trade"), which underpins risk asset valuations and carries its own systemic vulnerabilities. * **Inflation Outlook:** Acheson argues that inflation is not meaningfully declining, citing core CPI stagnation and attributing the trend to de-globalization, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions like the Strait of Hormuz crisis. * **Powell's Legacy:** Powell's tenure receives mixed marks. While his defense of Fed independence is noted, he is also criticized for overseeing the "de-banking" of crypto firms in 2023 and initially misjudging inflation. * **Outlook for Warsh:** Expectations for the incoming Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, are measured. While he may aim to reduce Fed balance sheet size and forward guidance, market realities and the FOMC will likely constrain his ability to enact significant policy shifts, particularly rate cuts. * **Crypto as a Macro Asset:** Bitcoin's role is framed as a hedge against currency debasement, benefiting from expectations of monetary stimulus. However, its maturation as a macro asset means it now competes with other high-volatility investments like AI stocks, potentially limiting near-term price catalysts. * **Market Structure & Tokenization:** The potential Clarity Act is seen as more beneficial for assets like Ethereum than Bitcoin, which already has relative regulatory clarity. Concerns are raised about "innovation exemptions" for tokenization if they enable third-party derivatives that encourage pure speculation over capital formation. In conclusion, the analysis suggests crypto markets lack a near-term positive catalyst and are caught between competing macro narratives, with significant underlying fragilities in traditional markets.

marsbit23 ч. назад

Senior Analyst Dialogue: What Powell's Departure and Warsh's Appointment Mean for Crypto?

marsbit23 ч. назад

Bitcoin's $78,000 Support Faces Ultimate Test: With Soaring Treasury Yields and Inflation Pressure, the Door to $75,000 is Opening

Bitcoin has fallen below the $78,000 support level, now facing a critical test due to severe macro pressures. The price slid from above $81,000 to a low near $77,711, with the $77,700-$78,000 zone identified as the next key support. The primary headwinds are surging U.S. Treasury yields—with the 10-year approaching 4.6% and the 30-year surpassing 5.13%—and persistent inflation. April's CPI accelerated to 3.8%, while WTI oil prices climbed above $105. These factors increase the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like Bitcoin and tighten the Fed's policy space. Crucially, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which previously provided a buffer, saw significant net outflows on two of the past three trading days, removing buying support when it was most needed. The technical outlook hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold above $77,700. A daily close below this level could open a path toward $76,500 and then the major $75,000 support. A recovery above $80,000 is needed to break the bearish pattern, with a close above $82,000 (the 200-day moving average) required to invalidate the breakdown. Failure to hold support could shift the narrative from a crypto correction to a broader, macro-driven risk asset deleveraging.

marsbit05/18 03:37

Bitcoin's $78,000 Support Faces Ultimate Test: With Soaring Treasury Yields and Inflation Pressure, the Door to $75,000 is Opening

marsbit05/18 03:37

TechFlow Intelligence Brief: South Korean Stock Market Plunges, Trump's Q1 Holdings Revealed

This TechFlow intelligence report covers key developments across AI, crypto, hardware, tech companies, and finance. In AI, Anthropic's valuation surpasses OpenAI, while AWS users face massive bills from runaway Claude API calls, highlighting AI's cost risks. A local AI model executing 'rm -rf' sparks safety debates. Meanwhile, arXiv enforces bans for AI-generated paper errors, and ChatGPT's impact on education grading is questioned. The crypto sector sees a US Senate committee passing a market structure bill, $2B in Bitcoin options expiring, and debates on Bitcoin's seizure resistance and DeFi's value without stablecoin yields. Hardware news includes NVIDIA planning RTX 5090 price hikes and the US approving H200 chip sales to Chinese firms. Tech company updates feature a macOS M5 chip exploit, Apple's iPhone price cuts, a South Korean stock market plunge, and Cisco's record revenue alongside layoffs. In stocks, NVIDIA's market cap hits $5.7T as Trump's Q1 portfolio shifts toward AI infrastructure stocks like NVIDIA and Broadcom. Cerebras' IPO soars, and a Reddit user reports massive gains on a leveraged ETF, fueling discussions on an AI bubble. Macro developments show precious metals falling due to Indian tariff hikes and strong US data. The Iran conflict disrupts Hormuz Strait shipping, affecting oil supplies. New tech includes 'haptic dreaming' to improve robot task success and Meta's Ray-Ban Display glasses with virtual handwriting. The underlying theme is AI's dual reality: creating both massive unexpected costs and immense market valuations. As technology advances rapidly, academia, markets, and regulators are all grappling to find a new equilibrium between innovation, risk, and control.

marsbit05/15 10:59

TechFlow Intelligence Brief: South Korean Stock Market Plunges, Trump's Q1 Holdings Revealed

marsbit05/15 10:59

Rally Without Conviction

The macro backdrop remains challenging with persistent inflation and high Treasury yields, but Bitcoin has shown resilience. Despite the recent rally to around $82k from a low of $60k, the recovery lacks the strong conviction of prior bull market cycles. Key on-chain data shows that while the extreme market fear from February has subsided, unrealized losses are low, and ETF inflows have turned positive, the underlying capital inflow remains modest. The current monthly net capital flow is around $2.8B, significantly below the $10B+ levels typical of major rally initiations. Market structure is improving, with renewed spot buying and institutional ETF demand acting as tailwinds. However, Bitcoin faces significant overhead resistance near $87k, where a large cohort of investors bought during the previous consolidation. The path higher will require stronger sustained capital inflows and spot participation to absorb this supply. Overall, this rally represents a structurally supported recovery rather than a full-fledged, high-conviction bull market breakout.

insights.glassnode05/13 14:48

insights.glassnode05/13 14:48

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Highlights: A Comprehensive Review of Macro Environment, Crude Oil, AI Tech Stocks, and Crypto Market

**Weekly Market Review: Macro, Oil, AI Tech Stocks & Crypto Market** **Macroeconomic & Traditional Finance** The April U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report of 115K new jobs exceeded expectations, but the data's quality was questioned. Growth was heavily concentrated in healthcare, while other sectors contracted, and manufacturing employment turned negative. A statistical model accounted for a large portion of the gains, conflicting with household survey data showing a loss of 226K jobs. Meanwhile, AI's impact on jobs is emerging, with information sector roles declining, though overall unemployment remains at ~4.3%. Oil prices hovered near $100 per barrel. Global oil buffer inventories have drawn down significantly, supporting prices, but high costs are suppressing demand. China's recent reduction in crude imports acted as a market stabilizer. Geopolitically, the U.S. and Iran are likely to reach a tentative agreement to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and avoid price spikes. For AI tech stocks, short-term prospects are mixed. A potential SpaceX IPO in June could pressure current index heavyweights like Nvidia, while smaller components might benefit. The mid-term focus shifts to Q2 earnings, emphasizing AI's return on investment. Long-term risks include potential election policy shifts and massive IPOs from companies like OpenAI, which could test the sector's sustainability. **Crypto Market & Ecosystem** Crypto markets rose moderately, with BTC climbing from ~$77K to ~$82K, driven by improved risk sentiment. Spot trading volumes remain low, but buying pressure is evident. ETF inflows continued (~$791M last week). However, institutional purchases of BTC and ETH were more modest than expected. The derivatives market shows lingering bearish bets, particularly on alts and ETH. A key trend is the "dual-track" model where projects pursue public listings for traditional funding while also building their own blockchains/tokens to capture crypto liquidity, as seen with Circle's ARC chain. Stablecoins and institutional chains present significant future opportunities. *Disclaimer: This is market analysis, not investment advice.*

marsbit05/12 03:27

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Highlights: A Comprehensive Review of Macro Environment, Crude Oil, AI Tech Stocks, and Crypto Market

marsbit05/12 03:27

Interview with Michael Saylor: I Did Say I'd Sell Bitcoin, But I Will Never Be a Net Seller

**Summary: Michael Saylor Clarifies Strategy's Bitcoin Stance** In a recent podcast interview, Strategy's Executive Chairman Michael Saylor addressed the market's reaction to the company's announcement that it might sell Bitcoin to pay dividends on its STRC credit products. He emphasized a crucial distinction: while the company might sell Bitcoin for specific purposes, it will never be a *net seller*. Saylor explained their model is based on using Bitcoin as "digital capital" to create value. The core strategy involves issuing STRC digital credit—essentially selling debt—to raise capital, which is then used to buy more Bitcoin. He estimates Bitcoin appreciates at roughly 40% annually. A small portion of these capital gains (e.g., ~2.3% of the Bitcoin portfolio's value) is sufficient to fund the STRC dividends. Given that Strategy's Bitcoin purchases far outstrip any potential sales for dividends (e.g., buying $3.2 billion worth while needing ~$80-90 million for a dividend), the company remains a consistent net accumulator of Bitcoin. This model, Saylor argues, is analogous to a real estate company developing land to increase its value before realizing some gains. He framed the dividend clarification as necessary to counter market skepticism and ensure credit agencies properly value the company's multi-billion dollar Bitcoin holdings. Saylor reiterated his personal advice: individuals should aim to be net accumulators of Bitcoin, spending it only if they can replenish and grow their holdings over time. Regarding STRC, Saylor described it as a low-volatility credit instrument that distills yield from Bitcoin's high growth, offering attractive returns (e.g., ~11-12% yield) for risk-averse investors. He noted that Strategy's STRC issuance now constitutes about 60% of the U.S. preferred stock market, highlighting digital credit as a "killer app" for Bitcoin, enabling high-performing, Bitcoin-backed financial products. He dismissed notions that Strategy's trading could move the highly liquid Bitcoin market, attributing price movements primarily to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Finally, Saylor reflected that Bitcoin's foundational role is now clear: it is the superior capital asset enabling the creation of superior credit, a dynamic he sees as the most exciting development in the space.

marsbit05/11 05:27

Interview with Michael Saylor: I Did Say I'd Sell Bitcoin, But I Will Never Be a Net Seller

marsbit05/11 05:27

BIT Research: Why Could Gold Rush to $5,000 Faster After the Sudden Plunge?

The article "BIT Research: After Gold's Sharp Decline, Why Could It Reach $5,000 Faster?" presents a bullish outlook for gold despite recent price drops. It argues that the core bullish structure remains intact, with the recent sell-off seen as a correction rather than a trend reversal. The primary drivers are expected to be a re-pricing of the US dollar and the interest rate path. The market currently prices in a potential 2026 rate hike, yet simultaneously expects a more dovish stance from incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, creating a contradiction. A correction of these expectations could weaken the dollar and lower real rates, fueling gold's ascent. Additionally, the expanding US national debt provides long-term structural support. Technically, gold is forming a consolidation pattern with higher lows, suggesting underlying strength. Quantitative and trend models have turned bullish, with historical data from similar signals pointing to an average ~12.8% gain over two months, projecting a target near $5,306. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting, the July BRICS summit, and the September US fiscal cliff. In summary, the convergence of a potential dollar downturn, interest rate re-pricing, supportive technicals, and upcoming macro events could propel gold into a new phase of accelerated growth, with $5,300 as a near-term target.

marsbit05/08 07:39

BIT Research: Why Could Gold Rush to $5,000 Faster After the Sudden Plunge?

marsbit05/08 07:39

Weekly Editor's Picks (0418-0424)

Weekly Editor's Picks (0418-0424) provides in-depth analysis on key developments across macro trends, crypto markets, and policy. Key topics include the oil market nearing a physical supply crisis due to shipping disruptions, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. In crypto, reports cover global consumer crypto adoption, a data-driven strategy for trading volatile altcoins, and the state of VC funding. Prediction markets like Polymarket are analyzed not as pure event-guessing games but as systems where understanding legalistic rules creates an edge. Major DeFi protocol Aave is criticized for poor crisis management amid a $300M exploit, while the controversial structure of World Liberty Financial is examined. Other highlights include policy updates like the CLARITY Act, Ethereum’s, airdrop opportunities, and weekly recaps of major incidents like the Kelp DAO hack and SpaceX's AI disclosures.

marsbit04/25 02:47

Q2 2026 Bitcoin Valuation: Why $143,000 Remains Achievable?

In Q2 2026, Bitcoin's valuation target of $143,000 remains achievable, representing a potential 2x upside from the current $70,500 price. Despite a 27% decline since Q1, the overall macro environment remains supportive. Global M2 liquidity hit a record $13.44 trillion, though Chinese-driven liquidity (over 60% of growth) has limited access to Bitcoin markets. U.S. monetary policy, a key driver, faced delays due to Iran conflict-induced oil price spikes, pushing March CPI to 3.3% and reducing Fed rate cut expectations. However, the easing direction persists. On-chain metrics show recovery from panic zones, with key resistance at $78,000 (long-term holder cost basis). Institutional flows turned positive, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows and corporate buying accelerating. Yet, network activity reveals stagnation—active addresses fell 13.2% YoY, suggesting superficial transaction growth. The revised $143K target (down from $185.5K in Q1) applies a -10% adjustment for weak fundamentals (BTCFi ecosystem contraction) and +20% for macro support. Key catalysts include breaking $78K, sustained ETF inflows, and geopolitical stability aiding Fed policy shifts.

marsbit04/24 02:12

Q2 2026 Bitcoin Valuation: Why $143,000 Remains Achievable?