# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Kalshi

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Kalshi", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Still Not Enough? Prediction Market Giants Set Sights on Payments and AI

Prediction market giants Kalshi and Polymarket are aggressively expanding their user base and capabilities, targeting payment integration and AI agents as new growth vectors. During the recent awards season, the two platforms saw combined betting volumes surpass $100 million, a significant jump from the previous year. A Paradigm survey indicates that 36% of U.S. voters have used prediction markets, highlighting their growing mainstream relevance. To capture the remaining market, Kalshi partnered with Block’s Cash App, simplifying deposits and tapping into its 59 million monthly active users for potential growth. Meanwhile, Polymarket, which has processed over $750 million in nominal volume since resuming U.S. operations, is exploring AI-driven expansion. It now supports AI Agent trading via Alchemy’s AgentCard, enabling 24/7 market participation. This aligns with a broader industry trend of integrating AI agents into financial ecosystems. Both platforms are validating new revenue models—Polymarket has generated over $11.2 million in fees since introducing them—and are positioning themselves at the forefront of fintech and AI convergence, signaling a new phase of competition and innovation in prediction markets.

Odaily星球日报03/16 13:41

Still Not Enough? Prediction Market Giants Set Sights on Payments and AI

Odaily星球日报03/16 13:41

Why Did the Prediction Market, Which Secured 20 Billion in Funding, Become the Target of Washington's Regulation?

Polymarket and Kalshi, two prediction market platforms, are seeking funding at valuations of around $20 billion each amid growing regulatory scrutiny from Washington. Their rise coincides with political controversy surrounding contracts related to Iran, where approximately $529 million was wagered on the timing of an Iranian attack and $150 million on contracts tied to the potential ouster of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Six accounts reportedly profited around $1.2 million from well-timed trades, raising concerns about insider information and war speculation. While Wall Street sees prediction markets as valuable information tools—evidenced by data partnerships with major media outlets like CNBC and Dow Jones—regulators are moving to impose stricter rules. U.S. lawmakers are drafting bills to restrict certain event contracts, and the CFTC is advancing new regulatory frameworks. The core issue revolves around trust, fairness, and the risk of incentivizing leaks of sensitive or classified information. A lawsuit against Kalshi further highlights challenges: users allege the platform refused to pay $54 million in winnings related to Iran contracts by invoking new exceptions after events unfolded. The tension reflects a broader dilemma: balancing the growth and legitimacy of prediction markets as information products against the need to prevent unethical profiteering and protect national security interests.

比推03/16 13:29

Why Did the Prediction Market, Which Secured 20 Billion in Funding, Become the Target of Washington's Regulation?

比推03/16 13:29

How Much Money Has Kalshi Actually Made? Deconstructing the Prediction Market Business Behind 200 Million Trades

In this analysis of Kalshi, a leading prediction market platform, the author examines its business model, transaction data, and regulatory landscape. By accessing Kalshi’s public API, the study reveals that the platform has processed over 203 million transactions with a total volume exceeding $41.7 billion. More than 82% of this volume comes from sports betting, positioning Kalshi as a de facto sports gambling platform accessible to users as young as 18. The platform operates a central limit order book (CLOB) where users trade binary contracts that settle at either $1 (if the event occurs) or $0 (if it does not). Kalshi generates revenue through a variable fee structure: Takers pay a fee based on the formula 0.07 × C × P × (1-P), where C is the number of contracts and P is the price, while Makers pay a quarter of that rate. Total fee income amounts to $545.6 million. Kalshi ecosystem includes markets, events, and series, with major volumes driven by events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election and Super Bowl outcomes. The platform’s fee model is compared to traditional sportsbooks, highlighting how its variable structure adapts to implied probability. Regulatory oversight falls under the CFTC, though enforcement remains limited, creating a grey area that allows Kalshi to operate with fewer restrictions than conventional gambling platforms. The analysis also touches on market结算 practices, liquidity incentives, and the broader context of prediction markets, including competitors like Polymarket and regulatory cases such as PredictIt’s legal battle with the CFTC.

marsbit03/13 04:30

How Much Money Has Kalshi Actually Made? Deconstructing the Prediction Market Business Behind 200 Million Trades

marsbit03/13 04:30

A $20 Billion Valuation: Kalshi and Polymarket in an Arms Race?

A potential "arms race" is brewing in the prediction market sector, with industry leaders Polymarket and Kalshi each reportedly in funding talks at valuations around $20 billion. This represents a near doubling of their respective $12 billion and $11 billion valuations from late 2025. As of February 2026, the global prediction market has reached a cumulative notional trading volume of $127.5 billion. Polymarket leads with $56.07 billion, followed closely by Kalshi at $44.71 billion, together commanding 79% market share. Their growth trajectories differ: Kalshi has experienced explosive user growth, with monthly active users surging from 600,000 to over 5.1 million in 2025, while Polymarket's user growth has been steadier, peaking around 700,000 monthly active users. Kalshi's trading volume skyrocketed over 1100% in 2025, largely driven by sports contracts which account for 81% of its volume. It has secured key partnerships with platforms like Robinhood, which contributed over 50% of its volume in late 2025, and media outlets like CNBC and CNN. Polymarket maintains a stronghold in political and crypto event markets. It has formed significant partnerships with X (formerly Twitter), ICE (for a strategic investment up to $2 billion), and the UFC for exclusive prediction market data. Both platforms are also official partners of the NHL, and their data is integrated into Google's search and finance products. Their divergent strategies—Kalshi's focus on USD-compliant trading and Polymarket's crypto-native, global event coverage—are collectively pushing prediction markets into the mainstream as vital information and risk-management platforms. With potential new funding and major upcoming events like the World Cup and the US elections, both platforms are poised for a record-breaking year in 2026.

marsbit03/09 07:06

A $20 Billion Valuation: Kalshi and Polymarket in an Arms Race?

marsbit03/09 07:06

Federal Ruling Raises Risk for Polymarket, Kalshi in Nevada

A US federal court ruling has increased the risk that Nevada regulators may halt prediction-market trading in the state. The court rejected arguments that federal commodity regulations preempt state gaming laws, allowing the Gaming Control Board to pursue its case against Polymarket’s parent company, Blockratize, in state court. This could lead to an injunction preventing Nevada residents from accessing event contracts offered by Polymarket or Kalshi. The decision comes amid growing regulatory pressure on prediction markets, with Kalshi also facing a similar state-level enforcement action. Legal experts suggest the ruling may encourage other states to seek injunctions against event contracts.

TheNewsCrypto03/03 12:47

Federal Ruling Raises Risk for Polymarket, Kalshi in Nevada

TheNewsCrypto03/03 12:47

Kalshi and Polymarket Face Scrutiny as Lawmakers Target Death-Related Betting Markets

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are under scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers after users placed large bets on events connected to U.S. strikes on Iran, including contracts related to the potential death of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Over $529 million was traded on related Polymarket contracts. Six Democratic senators have urged the CFTC to ban such death-related prediction contracts, citing ethical and national security risks. Kalshi’s CEO defended the platform, though the company later admitted to unclear contract wording and issued refunds. Polymarket, which operates offshore with fewer regulations, saw some users profit $1 million from well-timed bets. The situation highlights ongoing regulatory challenges in the prediction market industry.

TheNewsCrypto03/02 14:28

Kalshi and Polymarket Face Scrutiny as Lawmakers Target Death-Related Betting Markets

TheNewsCrypto03/02 14:28

How Can War News Turn into Millions in Profits a Step Ahead?

The article "How War News Turns into Millions in Profits" explores the rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi as digital arenas for wagering on geopolitical events, using the hypothetical U.S.-Israel airstrike on Iran on February 28, resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as a case study. These platforms saw surging trading volumes, with Polymarket’s market on "Will Khamenei be ousted by February 28?" reaching $95.93 million in daily volume. While Polymarket operates with anonymity and a profit-based fee model, Kalshi faced controversy for refusing to fully pay out on contracts tied to deaths, citing ethical concerns. The piece also highlights suspicions of insider trading, with some wallets making highly timed, profitable bets ahead of the strike. The trend raises questions about morality, market manipulation, and the need for stricter regulation as prediction markets blur the lines between real-world conflict and digital profit-seeking.

比推03/02 13:20

How Can War News Turn into Millions in Profits a Step Ahead?

比推03/02 13:20

Pricing the Death of Iran's Leader: Where Are the Ethical Boundaries of Prediction Markets?

The article discusses the ethical boundaries of prediction markets, triggered by the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in a military strike. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket had active markets on whether Khamenei would leave office. Kalshi’s CEO opposed profiting from death, refunded fees, and settled trades at pre-death prices to prevent incentivizing harm. This sparked debate: some argue such markets could encourage violence, while others claim it undermines market fairness and hedging value. U.S. senators had previously urged regulators to ban death-related contracts, citing risks of incentivizing real-world harm. The controversy highlights the tension between free market principles and social responsibility in prediction markets.

Odaily星球日报03/02 10:12

Pricing the Death of Iran's Leader: Where Are the Ethical Boundaries of Prediction Markets?

Odaily星球日报03/02 10:12

Kalshi Bans MrBeast Staff Member in Insider Trading Investigation

Kalshi, a regulated U.S. prediction market platform, has banned and fined two users for insider trading and market manipulation. One of them, Artem Kaptur, a visual effects editor for MrBeast, used insider knowledge about the "Beast Games" show to place approximately $4,000 in trades. He was suspended for two years and fined over $20,000. MrBeast's company confirmed it has zero tolerance for such actions and launched its own investigation. In a separate case, user Kyle Langford was banned for five years and fined $2,000 for betting on his own California governor candidacy and promoting it. Kalshi, regulated by the CFTC, stated it has investigated over 200 rule violation cases and continues to strengthen its monitoring systems.

TheNewsCrypto02/26 09:49

Kalshi Bans MrBeast Staff Member in Insider Trading Investigation

TheNewsCrypto02/26 09:49

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Who is the King of Prediction Markets?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the two dominant players in the prediction market industry, collectively holding 79% market share. Polymarket, crypto-native and globally focused, leads in notional volume ($56.07B) and excels in political and macro markets. Kalshi, CFTC-licensed and US-centric, follows closely ($44.71B) and dominates sports betting, which drives 89% of its revenue. Their competition spans capital raises, marketing, user acquisition, and regulatory strategy. Kalshi leverages traditional channels like Robinhood and TV ads, while Polymarket builds a developer ecosystem and uses crypto-style referral programs. Key challenges remain: Kalshi faces potential competition from its own partners (e.g., Robinhood building its own exchange) and state-level lawsuits. Polymarket, after operating fee-free, has begun charging fees—a critical test for its revenue model. The battle reflects a broader conflict: whether the future of information markets belongs to crypto or traditional finance. Both are expanding into each other’s strengths—Polymarket into US sports, Kalshi into political media integration. The industry is still young, and the ultimate winner is yet to be determined.

marsbit02/26 05:11

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Who is the King of Prediction Markets?