# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Kalshi

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Kalshi", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Trump Administration Backs Kalshi and Polymarket as Nevada Moves to Enforce Ban

A legal battle over prediction markets is intensifying in the U.S. as federal regulators, backed by the Trump administration, support operators Kalshi and Polymarket, while Nevada moves to enforce a ban. The dispute centers on whether prediction markets are financial products under federal oversight or a form of gambling subject to state regulation. Nevada’s Gaming Control Board filed a lawsuit to block Kalshi from offering sports-related event contracts, arguing they constitute unlicensed gambling. Kalshi contends its contracts are financial derivatives regulated by the CFTC, which has filed a brief supporting federal jurisdiction. The outcome could define the regulatory boundary between financial markets and gambling nationwide.

bitcoinist02/19 09:04

Trump Administration Backs Kalshi and Polymarket as Nevada Moves to Enforce Ban

bitcoinist02/19 09:04

Nevada Sues Kalshi in New Prediction Market Clash

Nevada has filed a civil lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging its sports-related event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling under state law. The Nevada Gaming Control Board seeks an injunction to block Kalshi from offering these contracts to state residents without a gaming license, arguing they threaten Nevada’s regulated gaming system. Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC, contends its contracts are financial derivatives under federal jurisdiction and has moved the case to federal court. This clash highlights a broader national conflict between state gambling regulations and federal oversight of prediction markets. The outcome could either establish a unified national framework for such markets or reinforce a state-by-state regulatory approach.

TheNewsCrypto02/18 11:33

Nevada Sues Kalshi in New Prediction Market Clash

TheNewsCrypto02/18 11:33

Trading Volume Hits New Highs Repeatedly, Why Is Kalshi's Pre-IPO Stock Price Experiencing a Tale of Extremes?

Amidst a declining broader market, the prediction market sector has shown remarkable resilience, with trading activity hitting record highs. Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market platform in the U.S., reached over $9.5 billion in trading volume in January, ranking first in the sector and setting a new monthly record. This has sparked renewed discussions about the fair pre-IPO share price of Kalshi, which is poised to become the "first prediction market stock." Currently, significant price discrepancies exist on crypto-based pre-IPO trading platforms: PreStocks lists Kalshi shares between $364 and $369, while Jarsy shows a price of around $504. In traditional markets, Nasdaq Private Market prices shares at approximately $320, and Hiive at $358. Kalshi completed a Series E funding round last year at a $11 billion valuation. Based on this, the reasonable pre-IPO share price range is estimated to be between $320 and $358. However, considering Kalshi's dominant market share and January volume nearing the entire prediction market's size from October last year, its implied valuation could be at least $15 billion. This would adjust the reasonable share price range to approximately $320–$423. Thus, Jarsy's current pricing appears high, while PreStocks may present arbitrage opportunities. With 2026 being a major year for global sporting events, Kalshi's annual revenue potential is significant, likely exceeding earlier estimates for competitor Polymarket, which could further drive up its pre-IPO valuation in the future.

比推02/11 15:25

Trading Volume Hits New Highs Repeatedly, Why Is Kalshi's Pre-IPO Stock Price Experiencing a Tale of Extremes?

比推02/11 15:25

Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

Amidst a declining crypto market, prediction markets have emerged as a standout sector. Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market platform in the U.S., reached a record monthly trading volume exceeding $9.5 billion in January, sparking renewed interest in its pre-IPO stock pricing. Current pre-IPO share prices for Kalshi show significant discrepancies across platforms. On PreStocks, prices are around $369 (implied market cap) and $364 (capitalization-based). In contrast, Jarsy lists a price of approximately $504 per share. Meanwhile, traditional financial markets like Nasdaq Private Market and Hiive show prices around $320 and $358, respectively. Kalshi completed a Series E funding round last year at an $11 billion valuation. Based on this, a reasonable pre-IPO share price range is estimated to be $320–$358. However, considering its surging trading volume and a projected market capitalization of at least $15 billion, a more optimistic price range of $358–$423 is plausible. This suggests Jarsy's current pricing may be high, while PreStocks might present an arbitrage opportunity. With major sporting events in 6 expected to boost activity, Kalshi's annual revenue potential is significant, potentially exceeding earlier estimates for competitor Polymarket, which could further drive up its pre-IPO valuation.

marsbit02/11 10:57

Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

marsbit02/11 10:57

Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

Amidst a recent market downturn, the prediction market sector has shown remarkable resilience. Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market platform in the US, reached a record single-month trading volume exceeding $9.5 billion in January, making it the sector leader. This surge has sparked renewed interest in pricing its pre-IPO shares. Significant price discrepancies exist across different pre-IPO trading platforms. On PreStocks, Kalshi shares are priced between $364 and $369. On Jarsy, the price is notably higher at around $504. In contrast, traditional private markets like Nasdaq Private Market and Hiive list shares at approximately $320 and $358, respectively. The analysis suggests a reasonable pre-IPO share price range for Kalshi is between $320 and $423. This is based on its last private funding round valuation of $11 billion and an estimated implied valuation of at least $15 billion, supported by its surging trading volume which now nearly equals the entire prediction market's size from October of the previous year. The article concludes that Jarsy's current price appears high, while PreStocks may present a potential arbitrage opportunity. Furthermore, with 2026 being a major year for global sporting events, Kalshi's annual revenue potential is seen as substantial, potentially exceeding estimates for competitor Polymarket, which could lead to further increases in its pre-IPO valuation.

Odaily星球日报02/11 10:44

Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

Odaily星球日报02/11 10:44

Wall Street's Top Quantitative Firm Jump Trading Enters the Prediction Market, Is the Era of Retail Investors Over?

Wall Street quantitative trading giant Jump Trading is entering the prediction market sector through strategic partnerships with leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. In exchange for providing liquidity, Jump will receive equity stakes in both companies—a fixed share in Kalshi and a performance-based stake in Polymarket tied to its U.S. trading volume. Prediction markets have faced persistent liquidity challenges, with platforms often experiencing shallow order books and wide bid-ask spreads outside of major events. While Kalshi previously engaged SIG as a market maker and Polymarket relied on decentralized incentives and algorithmic traders, both platforms have struggled to maintain stable, deep liquidity consistently. The equity-for-liquidity model aligns incentives: platforms gain access to Jump’s sophisticated, low-latency market-making capabilities, while Jump positions itself to benefit from the sector’s growth—Kalshi and Polymarket are valued at approximately $11B and $9B, respectively. Market making in prediction markets offers potential profits from spreads, incentives, and arbitrage, but it also carries significant risks, including event-driven volatility, limited hedging options, and regulatory uncertainty. While Jump’s advanced infrastructure and cross-asset experience may allow it to capture alpha and leverage equity upside, smaller players face high barriers to entry. The move signals a maturation of the prediction market space, with institutional participation likely to improve liquidity but also centralize influence among top-tier firms.

marsbit02/10 14:39

Wall Street's Top Quantitative Firm Jump Trading Enters the Prediction Market, Is the Era of Retail Investors Over?

marsbit02/10 14:39

Was the Prediction Market the Biggest Winner of This Year's Super Bowl?

This year's Super Bowl marked a potential turning point, with prediction markets emerging as a serious competitor to traditional sports betting. Platforms Kalshi and Polymarket offered markets on the game, halftime show, and ads. While the American Gaming Association projected a record $1.76 billion in traditional sports bets, an analyst estimated prediction markets could capture 80% of the year-over-year growth, with a forecast of $630 million in volume for the event. However, available data suggests prediction markets fell short of this forecast. Kalshi's top Super Bowl-specific markets saw a combined volume of approximately $233 million. Its season-long "Who will win the Super Bowl" contract accumulated over $500 million in volume, but this was spread over the entire NFL season. Kalshi's significant growth is aided by its CFTC regulatory status, allowing a US mobile app, leading to 1.9 million downloads in January alone. Polymarket, lacking direct US app access for most users, saw about $76 million in volume across its top three Super Bowl markets. Its strength was demonstrated in information discovery, as its market accurately predicted Lady Gaga's surprise halftime show appearance days in advance. The activity occurs amidst an unresolved regulatory conflict, with Kalshi operating under federal CFTC oversight while state gaming regulators challenge it in court. Although prediction markets did not meet the $630 million hype for the Super Bowl weekend, their rapid user growth and informational advantages present a clear and growing threat to established sportsbooks.

比推02/10 01:02

Was the Prediction Market the Biggest Winner of This Year's Super Bowl?

比推02/10 01:02

$23.3 Million Bet on Stay or Leave: Why Did NBA Star Giannis Antetokounmpo's Investment in Kalshi Spark Public Outrage?

NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo’s decision to become a shareholder in prediction market platform Kalshi has sparked controversy among fans and commentators. The move came shortly after a high-profile contract on Kalshi regarding his potential trade reached over $23.3 million in volume, the second-largest NBA-related event on the platform after championship betting. Many criticized the partnership as a conflict of interest, especially since Antetokounmpo had been at the center of intense trade rumors leading up to the deadline. Unlike traditional endorsement deals, his equity stake in Kalshi—though under the 1% limit set by the NBA—blurs the line between athlete and gambling-related business owner. While the NBA permits passive investments in gambling entities under its current CBA, critics argue that such involvement risks undermining competitive integrity and public trust. Recent incidents, including NBA personnel arrests related to gambling, have heightened concerns about insider influence and moral hazards. The league has embraced sports betting as a revenue source, but Antetokounmpo’s move highlights growing tensions between financial incentives and sports ethics. In an era where prediction markets influence how games are perceived, the incident raises deeper questions about trust and transparency in professional sports.

marsbit02/09 13:18

$23.3 Million Bet on Stay or Leave: Why Did NBA Star Giannis Antetokounmpo's Investment in Kalshi Spark Public Outrage?

marsbit02/09 13:18

Kalshi Expands Surveillance to Curb Insider Trading, Manipulation

Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, has significantly expanded its market surveillance and enforcement systems to combat insider trading and market manipulation. This initiative includes forming an independent Surveillance Advisory Committee with industry experts like Daniel Taylor and Lisa Pinheiro to analyze trades and issue quarterly reports. Kalshi has also partnered with Solidus Labs to enhance data analysis across its 4,000 active markets. The move comes amid growing global scrutiny of prediction markets, such as Polymarket, over concerns about insider advantages and manipulation, and follows recent legal challenges involving prediction markets in the U.S.

TheNewsCrypto02/06 08:26

Kalshi Expands Surveillance to Curb Insider Trading, Manipulation

TheNewsCrypto02/06 08:26

Coinbase Stock Slides 4.3% as Nevada Gaming Regulator Targets Unlicensed Sports Betting Contracts

Coinbase shares declined 4.3% as Nevada gaming regulators filed a civil complaint against the company, alleging its prediction market products constitute unlicensed sports betting. The state seeks to halt these markets, arguing they fall under Nevada's gambling laws rather than federal derivatives regulation. Coinbase, which partners with CFTC-regulated Kalshi, maintains the products are legal derivatives. The action adds to regulatory pressures on Coinbase, which has seen an 11-session stock decline amid legal uncertainties and a recent data breach. The company is challenging similar state-level actions in other jurisdictions, claiming exclusive CFTC oversight.

bitcoinist02/05 09:10

Coinbase Stock Slides 4.3% as Nevada Gaming Regulator Targets Unlicensed Sports Betting Contracts

bitcoinist02/05 09:10

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