# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Inflation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Inflation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Wall Street Collectively Pessimistic About 2026: Could an Oil Crisis Trigger an Economic Recession?

In late March, multiple major financial institutions—Moody's Analytics, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and EY-Parthenon—raised their 12-month recession probability forecasts for the U.S. to over 30%. Moody’s gave the highest estimate at 48.6%, followed by EY-Parthenon at 40%, J.P. Morgan at 35%, and Goldman Sachs at 30%. A key common factor is the sharp rise in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel in early March—the first time in four years—due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route. Historical data indicates that four out of the five major oil price shocks since the 1970s led to economic recessions. Although the current price increase of around 80% is the smallest among them, the scale of supply disruption is described by the IEA as the largest since the 1970s energy crises. J.P. Morgan estimates that every sustained 10% increase in oil prices reduces U.S. GDP growth by 15–20 basis points. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, outlined two extreme outcomes: either geopolitical resolution leads to oil prices falling to $40 and global growth, or prolonged conflict keeps prices above $100—possibly near $150—triggering a global recession. He ruled out a 2008-style systemic financial meltdown, citing stronger bank buffers. Beyond oil, declining consumer confidence and weak employment data are amplifying concerns. The convergence of pessimistic forecasts from different methodological approaches may itself influence economic behavior, potentially becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy as businesses and consumers become more cautious.

marsbit03/26 03:05

Wall Street Collectively Pessimistic About 2026: Could an Oil Crisis Trigger an Economic Recession?

marsbit03/26 03:05

If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

An article explores the potential impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields above 5% on Bitcoin's price, suggesting it could fall below $50,000. The analysis is prompted by the recent U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which has driven oil prices higher and fueled inflation fears, pushing bond yields up. Historically, prolonged oil-related conflicts lead to sustained yield increases and pressure on risk assets like stocks. Given Bitcoin's high correlation with the S&P 500, similar downward pressure is expected. Technical analysis indicates a bearish flag pattern for Bitcoin, with a break below it potentially leading to a drop to $50,000 or lower. Prediction markets also show a high probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 in 2026. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes notes that prolonged conflict might force the Fed to print more money, which could ultimately benefit Bitcoin.

marsbit03/25 09:36

If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

marsbit03/25 09:36

Bitcoin Trading On Binance Cools Off: Spot Volume Falls Sharply To Multi-Year Lows

Bitcoin briefly rebounded to retest $71,000, but trading activity on Binance has cooled significantly. Spot volume on the exchange has dropped sharply to multi-year lows, losing over $52 billion and marking the lowest levels since the 2023 bear market. This decline reflects reduced market participation and signals underlying weakness. The cooling activity occurs amid a tense macroeconomic backdrop, with the Fed turning more assertive, persistent inflation, and growing stagflation concerns. Despite this, institutional interest remains, as evidenced by MicroStrategy's recent purchase of an additional 1,031 BTC. Analysts note that while the short-term signal is negative, such periods often create long-term opportunities.

bitcoinist03/25 06:01

Bitcoin Trading On Binance Cools Off: Spot Volume Falls Sharply To Multi-Year Lows

bitcoinist03/25 06:01

March 25 Market Summary: US Submits 15-Point Ceasefire Plan, Oil Prices Plunge Over 5% in a Single Day, While Gold Soars Against the Trend

March 25 Market Summary: U.S. Submits 15-Point Ceasefire Plan, Oil Crashes Over 5%, While Gold Surges Against the Trend. Wall Street rebounded as the U.S. submitted a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran, sparking optimism. Major indices and futures rose over 0.7%, breaking weeks of pressure. However, tech stocks like Oracle and Salesforce continued to decline, with the software ETF hitting a new low. Oil prices plummeted, with WTI falling over 5% to around $87.60/barrel and Brent dropping below $100, driven by ceasefire expectations. In contrast, gold surged nearly 3.7% to approximately $4,563/ounce as lower oil prices weakened the dollar and revived demand for the metal. Bitcoin held steady near $70,000, with Bernstein analysts declaring a market bottom and maintaining a $150,000 year-end target. However, regulatory concerns emerged as Circle’s stock crashed 20% due to proposed stablecoin regulations. The market’s focus now is on Iran’s response to the ceasefire proposal. Acceptance could push oil below $80, revive rate cut expectations, and boost tech stocks. Rejection could quickly revert markets to panic mode. The real turning point hinges on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

marsbit03/25 02:00

March 25 Market Summary: US Submits 15-Point Ceasefire Plan, Oil Prices Plunge Over 5% in a Single Day, While Gold Soars Against the Trend

marsbit03/25 02:00

The Narrative of Gold's Rise is Becoming Harder to Sustain

The article argues that the narrative supporting gold's price surge is weakening, leaving only a fraction of its original justification. Historically, gold's primary drivers were its role as a safe-haven asset during crises (like the 2000 dot-com bubble and 2008 financial crisis) and as a hedge against inflation (e.g., during the Fed's QE periods). However, the author contends these core logics are now eroding. First, gold's safe-haven属性 is diminishing as its price action has recently become correlated with speculative assets like Bitcoin and US stocks, moving in sync with them on news like Trump's comments. This suggests投机属性 may be overshadowing its traditional避险 role. Second, the inflation hedge argument is weakening. The Federal Reserve's projected minimal rate cuts through 2026 suggest a stronger dollar and reduced expectations for significant USD depreciation. Similarly, the Japanese Yen's贬值 expectations are also easing. The author identifies only "0.5" reasons left for gold's rise: continued purchases by China's central bank. While China has been a consistent buyer, its purchasing speed has drastically slowed from a peak of nearly 600,000 ounces per month to a recent average of just 30,000 ounces. This minimal volume is deemed too small to significantly impact the global gold market, especially compared to London's daily clearing volume of over 18 million ounces. Furthermore, a technical divergence exists: gold prices accelerated upward in late 2024 even as China's buying slowed. The article concludes that with its避险属性 potentially exhausted, inflation expectations subdued, and China's buying influence limited, the current gold price appears to have overshot its fundamental supports. The author advises against high expectations for further sustained gains barring an extreme black-swan event.

比推03/24 04:21

The Narrative of Gold's Rise is Becoming Harder to Sustain

比推03/24 04:21

Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio: The Concept and Mechanism of the All Weather Portfolio

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, shares the core principles behind the All Weather Portfolio—a strategy designed to perform well across all economic environments with minimal need for market timing. The goal is to achieve returns significantly higher than cash or low-risk assets, with lower risk than traditional portfolios like the 60/40 stock-bond mix. Dalio emphasizes that cash, while safe from default, often yields the worst long-term real returns, especially during high inflation. The All Weather Portfolio is built on the concept of risk parity, balancing asset classes based on their risk contributions rather than capital allocation. By understanding how different assets (such as bonds, gold, inflation-linked securities, and commodities) react to changes in growth and inflation, the portfolio is structured to maintain stability. It aims to be passively held, avoiding market timing, which Dalio argues most investors—even professionals—cannot execute successfully. Originally developed for his family, the strategy has been refined over 30 years. Dalio encourages investors to understand and apply these principles to build confidence and resilience, particularly in volatile markets. He plans to release a detailed “recipe” for constructing such a portfolio in the future.

marsbit03/24 03:28

Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio: The Concept and Mechanism of the All Weather Portfolio

marsbit03/24 03:28

Gold Has Stabbed Everyone in the Back

The price of gold has experienced a severe decline, dropping over 27% from its all-time high of $5,600 to around $4,100, marking its worst performance since 1983. This contradicts the conventional wisdom that gold acts as a safe-haven asset during crises, such as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has driven oil prices above $100 and closed the Strait of Hormuz. Analysis reveals that gold's behavior over the past three years has resembled that of a risk asset, not a hedge. It moved inversely to inflation and correlated strongly with U.S. stocks, challenging traditional narratives. While central bank purchases provided a foundation, the surge was fueled by speculative institutional investors using leveraged derivatives, where paper gold claims vastly outnumbered physical supply. This created a bubble vulnerable to liquidation. The recent crash was triggered by expectations that persistent inflation and high oil prices would delay Fed rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and reducing gold's appeal. Leveraged positions were forced to unwind, sparking a downward spiral similar to the March 2020 liquidity crisis. The future remains uncertain. If the war continues and stagflation sets in, gold could rebound as in the 1979 oil crisis. Alternatively, further deleveraging may push prices lower. Regardless, the episode underscores that no asset is immune to liquidity demands during panics, and gold's role is now at a critical crossroads.

比推03/23 14:13

Gold Has Stabbed Everyone in the Back

比推03/23 14:13

Behind the Gold's Pullback Lies a More Significant Issue: The Loosening of the Old System

Gold's recent pullback has drawn superficial comparisons to the 1979 cycle, but the underlying global dynamics have fundamentally shifted. In 1979, gold fell due to extreme Fed rate hikes under Volcker and a renewed belief in U.S. credit stability, which attracted capital back to dollar assets. Today, the situation is inverted. The U.S. faces massive debt, uncontrolled deficits, and a financial system hypersensitive to interest rates. The critical change is the structural challenge to the dollar-centric system itself, particularly the petrodollar cycle. The ongoing Middle East conflict is not an isolated event but a self-reinforcing crisis that disrupts energy flows, elevates costs, and strains fiscal capacities—undermining the dollar’s role in global energy trade. This suggests that the recent gold sell-off is a short-term profit-taking move after a strong rally, rather than a loss of long-term value. The broader narrative is one of a deteriorating monetary order: the U.S. can no longer easily suppress inflation with high rates or assert global dominance as before. As the world reassesses the entire credit system, gold is poised to assume a new role as a hedge against systemic fragility.

Odaily星球日报03/23 12:13

Behind the Gold's Pullback Lies a More Significant Issue: The Loosening of the Old System

Odaily星球日报03/23 12:13

Middle East Conflict Rekindles Rate Hike Expectations, Gold Suffers Worst Sell-off in 43 Years

Gold suffered its worst weekly decline in 43 years, with spot prices falling for eight consecutive sessions—the longest losing streak since October 2023. Silver also plunged over 15%, while platinum and palladium followed lower. The sell-off was triggered by escalating Middle East conflicts, which drove up oil prices and reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts. Market bets on a Fed hike by October rose to 50%, reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold amid higher real rate prospects. Technical indicators worsened, with RSI falling below 30, triggering stop-losses and self-reinforcing selling. Gold ETFs saw outflows for three straight weeks, losing over 60 tons. The situation echoes the 1983 crash when OPEC nations sold gold reserves to raise cash amid an oil price collapse. Despite a 4% year-to-date gain, macro conditions have deteriorated. Rising energy prices may reduce global GDP by 0.3% and lift inflation by 0.5-0.6%, increasing stagflation risks. Gold’s future trajectory hinges on real rates and geopolitical developments—further rate hike expectations could sustain pressure, while any de-escalation may revive safe-haven demand.

marsbit03/23 02:52

Middle East Conflict Rekindles Rate Hike Expectations, Gold Suffers Worst Sell-off in 43 Years

marsbit03/23 02:52

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