# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Inflation

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Inflation", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Forbes: The $39 Trillion US Debt 'Crisis' May Trigger A Bitcoin Surge

Forbes: U.S. Debt 'Crisis' Could Trigger Bitcoin Surge The article discusses warnings from prominent financial figures about the precarious state of the U.S. dollar and national debt, and how this could benefit assets like Bitcoin. Hedge fund founder Ray Dalio warns the U.S. is spending 40% more than it earns, with debt at six times income, a historically problematic situation that devalues fiat currencies and lifts gold. Analysts note the U.S. is paying hundreds of billions in net interest on its $39 trillion debt, risking a "debt spiral." Concurrently, JPMorgan analysts suggest a shift in the "debasement trade" from gold to Bitcoin, noting Bitcoin ETF inflows have surpassed those of gold ETFs, especially following the Iran conflict. Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller predicts the dollar may not remain the world's reserve currency in 50 years, potentially replaced by "some crypto thing." Elon Musk's warnings about a post-fiat era and Janet Yellen's concerns about potential "hyperinflation" under a Trump presidency are also cited as factors that could ignite Bitcoin's price. The piece positions Bitcoin, with its capped supply, as a potential digital gold and hedge against fiscal instability and currency debasement.

marsbit05/14 00:04

Forbes: The $39 Trillion US Debt 'Crisis' May Trigger A Bitcoin Surge

marsbit05/14 00:04

Rally Without Conviction

The macro backdrop remains challenging with persistent inflation and high Treasury yields, but Bitcoin has shown resilience. Despite the recent rally to around $82k from a low of $60k, the recovery lacks the strong conviction of prior bull market cycles. Key on-chain data shows that while the extreme market fear from February has subsided, unrealized losses are low, and ETF inflows have turned positive, the underlying capital inflow remains modest. The current monthly net capital flow is around $2.8B, significantly below the $10B+ levels typical of major rally initiations. Market structure is improving, with renewed spot buying and institutional ETF demand acting as tailwinds. However, Bitcoin faces significant overhead resistance near $87k, where a large cohort of investors bought during the previous consolidation. The path higher will require stronger sustained capital inflows and spot participation to absorb this supply. Overall, this rally represents a structurally supported recovery rather than a full-fledged, high-conviction bull market breakout.

insights.glassnode05/13 14:48

insights.glassnode05/13 14:48

Grayscale: Ethereum's Staking Model Needs a Revamp

The article discusses potential changes to Ethereum's staking reward model, highlighting two structural issues. First, the shift of activity to Layer 2 networks is reducing transaction fees and token burns on the mainnet, leading to an increase in ETH's net issuance. Second, with withdrawals enabled and the rise of liquid staking tokens (LSTs) and exchange-traded products (ETPs), the friction cost for staking has nearly vanished. This could eventually lead to almost all ETH being staked, which may cause unnecessary dilution and centralization risks. To address this, the Ethereum community is considering a model that caps rewards beyond a certain staking threshold, discouraging excessive staking. Grayscale argues this change would be beneficial for ETH's long-term price by controlling inflation, reducing tail risks, and strengthening ETH's narrative as a store of value. It notes that ETH's price volatility has a much greater impact on returns than staking yields, which are currently around 3% annually.

marsbit05/13 10:02

Grayscale: Ethereum's Staking Model Needs a Revamp

marsbit05/13 10:02

福布斯：美国39万亿美元债务「危机」或将引发比特币暴涨

Forbes: U.S. $39 Trillion Debt "Crisis" Could Trigger Bitcoin Surge The article discusses warnings from financial figures like Ray Dalio and analysts at JPMorgan about the potential collapse of the U.S. dollar due to unsustainable debt and deficits. This scenario is seen as potentially driving a massive shift of capital from traditional safe havens like gold into Bitcoin. Key points include the U.S. spending $7 trillion annually against $5 trillion in revenue, leading to a debt-to-income ratio of six times; net interest payments on the national debt reaching $628 billion this year; and predictions that the dollar may lose its reserve currency status within 50 years. The piece highlights Bitcoin's role as "digital gold" amid geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict, noting its 30% surge and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs outpacing those for gold ETFs. Figures like Stanley Druckenmiller and Elon Musk are cited for their critical views on the dollar's future and their speculative support for cryptocurrencies.

marsbit05/13 08:12

marsbit05/13 08:12

Arthur Hayes' Latest In-Depth Article: Forget Wars and Inflation, the AI Bubble Is the Biggest Opportunity

In his latest article "The Butterfly Touch," Arthur Hayes argues that the massive capital expenditure (CAPEX) fueling the global AI race, driven by US-China technological competition and nationalism, is creating unprecedented dollar and renminbi liquidity. This monetary expansion, combined with inflationary pressures from geopolitical conflicts like the US-Iran war, is creating a perfect environment for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Hayes believes foreign nations, threatened by supply chain disruptions, will increasingly shift savings from dollar assets to real infrastructure and commodities, forcing the US to maintain loose financial conditions to support its markets. He predicts Bitcoin, backed by "trillions of dollars and yuan that have yet to be printed," is poised for a significant rally, potentially back to $126,000, with the bullish trend accelerating past $90,000. While acknowledging a potential shift in US political sentiment against AI and inflation around the 2028 election, Hayes remains aggressively bullish for now. He advocates investing in cryptocurrencies, specifically mentioning his allocations to Hyperliquid ($HYPE), Zcash ($ZEC), and an upcoming focus on $NEAR due to its "privacy narrative" and potential for a major rally.

marsbit05/12 11:39

Arthur Hayes' Latest In-Depth Article: Forget Wars and Inflation, the AI Bubble Is the Biggest Opportunity

marsbit05/12 11:39

Arthur Hayes' Latest Long-Form: The AI Bubble Represents the Biggest Opportunity

Arthur Hayes argues that the AI investment boom, driven by massive government and corporate capital expenditure (CAPEX) for geopolitical and technological supremacy, represents a historic opportunity for cryptocurrency. He believes the unprecedented money printing by central banks (especially the US and China) to fund this AI arms race, combined with inflationary pressures from global conflict and a shift away from "just-in-time" global supply chains, creates a perfect environment for Bitcoin and crypto assets to thrive. Hayes predicts Bitcoin will surge past $126,000, fueled by this liquidity. He identifies two potential triggers for an AI bubble collapse: a massive, failed AI-related IPO/merger or a political shift against AI and inflation during the 2028 US election. Until then, he advocates aggressive investment in Bitcoin and specific altcoins like NEAR, Hyperliquid ($HYPE), and Zcash ($ZEC), viewing the current period as a prime bullish phase.

链捕手05/12 11:05

Arthur Hayes' Latest Long-Form: The AI Bubble Represents the Biggest Opportunity

链捕手05/12 11:05

TACO Is Outdated, Wall Street Is Betting Heavily on NACHO

The article discusses a shift on Wall Street from the "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading theme to a new one called "NACHO" (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens). This change reflects the market's adaptation to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran in late February. Unlike TACO, which bet on former President Trump de-escalating crises, NACHO bets on a protracted stalemate keeping the vital oil chokepoint shut. Key evidence for the NACHO regime includes a fundamental decoupling of oil prices and the S&P 500 since late March. While Brent crude has remained elevated (around $109 in May), the stock index has rallied to new highs. The market is pricing in a long but finite period of high oil prices, as seen in the steep futures curve. This theme is backed by real money in three derivatives markets: soaring war risk insurance for ships, an inverted oil futures structure, and evaporating expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Within the equity market, the NACHO dynamic has caused a sharp divergence, with the energy sector (XLE) vastly outperforming the transportation sector (IYT), which is highly sensitive to fuel costs. The article notes a concrete deadline for this trade: early June. Analysts warn that global commercial oil inventories could approach critical "operational pressure" levels by then, potentially triggering more severe market disruptions if the Strait remains closed. Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability to the Strait reopening normally before June.

marsbit05/10 01:32

TACO Is Outdated, Wall Street Is Betting Heavily on NACHO

marsbit05/10 01:32

Legendary Investor: 'Absolutely No Way' for Walsh to Cut Rates, AI Bull Market Could Last 1-2 More Years

Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones says incoming Fed Chair Wash is highly unlikely to cut rates and could even consider raising them, citing FOMC pushback and persistent inflation. He remains bullish on the AI-driven stock market rally, comparing it to historical tech revolutions like Microsoft's founding (1981) and the commercialization of the internet (1995). Jones believes this AI bull market is only about 50-60% complete and could continue for another 1-2 years, though he warns the current period resembles the late stages of the 1999 dot-com bubble, setting the stage for a potential sharp correction if valuations become extreme. He also cautions that AI requires eventual government regulation to mitigate long-term risks.

marsbit05/08 15:44

Legendary Investor: 'Absolutely No Way' for Walsh to Cut Rates, AI Bull Market Could Last 1-2 More Years

marsbit05/08 15:44

The History of U.S. Stocks is, Behind It, a History of American Wars

The article argues that the history of the U.S. stock market is deeply intertwined with American military conflicts. While current Middle East tensions raise economic concerns, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue hitting new highs. Historical analysis shows U.S. wars, from the Spanish-American War to recent conflicts in the Middle East, have often coincided with market gains, as seen in the Dow Jones's performance during these periods. The U.S. transitioned from a war participant to an initiator, with most conflicts post-Vietnam being short, focused on oil, and achieving strategic goals. The market's reaction to war has evolved. Pre-1950s, investor sentiment directly drove swings based on battle outcomes. From the Korean War onward, the focus shifted to economic channels like inflation, oil prices, and fiscal policy. For instance, during the Gulf War, stock movements inversely correlated with oil price swings. The primary beneficiary industries have also changed: coal dominated WWII, oil surged during Korea and Vietnam, but by the Gulf War, the indirect economic impact made consumer staples outperform. Overall, as the U.S. economy grew, the direct market impact of individual wars diminished, giving way to broader macroeconomic factors like interest rates and deficits as the key drivers.

marsbit05/08 08:29

The History of U.S. Stocks is, Behind It, a History of American Wars

marsbit05/08 08:29

The Richest Fed Chair in History? Three Challenges Kevin Warsh Is About to Face

Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chair, faces three major challenges as he prepares to take office. With a personal investment portfolio exceeding $130 million, including holdings in crypto protocols and public chains, he is set to become the wealthiest Fed chair in history. Warsh, known for his historically hawkish stance, has recently shifted his position, arguing that AI is a powerful deflationary force that could boost productivity. However, rising CPI and energy prices pose a risk to this outlook. He strongly defended Fed independence, stating that it is eroded not by political pressure but by the institution’s own missteps, such as blurring the lines between monetary and fiscal policy during the 2021-2022 inflation period. Additionally, Warsh advocates for significant balance sheet reduction while potentially cutting rates—a combination that markets find unsettling. He also proposes modernizing inflation measurement with real-time data, including stablecoins and on-chain pricing, to improve policy responsiveness. His confirmation is currently delayed due to a political investigation into current Chair Powell, adding uncertainty to his appointment.

marsbit04/24 00:36

The Richest Fed Chair in History? Three Challenges Kevin Warsh Is About to Face