# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Gambling

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Gambling", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Prediction Markets: An Extended Form of Binary Options?

After observing prediction markets, it is increasingly evident that they share significant similarities with binary options. In many respects, prediction markets can be viewed as an extended form of binary options. Both utilize binary (yes/no) contracts where the price fluctuates between 0 and 1, reflecting the market's consensus probability of an event occurring. For instance, a price of 0.7 indicates a perceived 70% likelihood. At expiration, the contract settles at 1 if the event occurs and 0 otherwise—mirroring the payoff structure of binary options. The core of both systems lies in forecasting binary outcomes and using market prices to estimate event probabilities. They aggregate collective intelligence, allow speculation, and enable risk management. However, differences exist: prediction markets cover a broader range of verifiable events (e.g., weather, elections, or box office results) with flexible timeframes, while binary options are primarily focused on short-term financial asset movements (e.g., stocks or currencies). Additionally, binary options are often more speculative and face stricter financial regulations in regions like the EU and the US. Prediction markets, though currently less regulated (especially in crypto), emphasize accuracy and may eventually come under regulatory scrutiny due to concerns like market manipulation. These distinctions could lead to divergent regulatory and developmental paths in the future.

marsbit12/22 12:05

Prediction Markets: An Extended Form of Binary Options?

marsbit12/22 12:05

Why Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin is betting on prediction markets as ‘truth-seeking’ tools

Prediction markets are gaining significant traction in crypto, with Ethereum's Vitalik Buterin endorsing them as "truth-seeking" tools and an antidote to misinformation, despite acknowledging potential manipulation risks. The segment saw a major breakthrough in 2025, highlighted by Polymarket's partnerships with NYSE parent ICE for data distribution and with social media platform X, driving its daily trading volume to a record $179 million. However, competition has intensified as Kalshi, which tokenized its contracts and partnered with Solana-based platforms, now controls 73% of the market volume, partly due to Polymarket's prior U.S. ban. Although Polymarket has resolved regulatory issues and plans to re-enter the U.S. market, its recent downtime on Polygon has prompted moves to accelerate its Layer-2 solution. The upcoming POLY token launch may help volumes through airdrop farming. Buterin and other market experts view prediction markets as a more reliable source of truth than traditional surveys due to their financial incentives.

ambcrypto12/22 05:01

Why Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin is betting on prediction markets as ‘truth-seeking’ tools

ambcrypto12/22 05:01

Coinbase Escalates Regulatory Fight With Lawsuit Against 3 States

Coinbase has filed lawsuits against Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut in federal court, seeking to prevent state regulators from treating prediction markets as illegal gambling. The company argues that these markets are derivatives regulated by the CFTC under federal law, not by state gaming authorities. The legal action aims to avoid a patchwork of state rules that could block federally approved products. The move follows state-level actions, including cease-and-desist orders against platforms like Kalshi. Coinbase plans to launch prediction market trading in partnership with Kalshi in January 2026, making a federal ruling urgent. The outcome could determine whether such markets are regulated nationally or on a state-by-state basis, impacting innovation and market access.

bitcoinist12/20 05:32

Coinbase Escalates Regulatory Fight With Lawsuit Against 3 States

bitcoinist12/20 05:32

Coinbase borrows Kalshi’s playbook, sues three states over prediction markets

Coinbase has filed lawsuits against regulators in Connecticut, Illinois, and Michigan, seeking federal court rulings that prediction markets operated under CFTC oversight fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and are not subject to individual state gambling laws. The exchange argues that allowing states to independently classify these markets as illegal gambling would undermine federal regulatory authority and create inconsistent national standards. Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, emphasized that prediction markets function as neutral trading platforms—unlike traditional sportsbooks—and should be treated as regulated financial instruments. The legal move mirrors strategies used by prediction market operator Kalshi, which has faced mixed outcomes in similar state-level challenges. The cases may ultimately determine whether prediction markets are considered CFTC-regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state prohibitions.

cointelegraph12/19 08:05

Coinbase borrows Kalshi’s playbook, sues three states over prediction markets

cointelegraph12/19 08:05

Machi Big Brother's Leverage Game: Where Does the 'Never-Ending' Money Come From?

Machi Big Brother (Jeffrey Huang), a well-known crypto investor, suffered a series of 10 liquidations on Hyperliquid, causing his account balance to plummet from $1.3 million to just over $53,000. This is part of a pattern of extreme leveraged trading—using 15x to 25x leverage—that has previously led to a $54.5 million swing from profit to loss. Despite these massive losses, he repeatedly replenishes his margin, raising the question: where does the money come from? His capital structure has three main sources: 1. **Traditional tech exit**: He co-founded 17LIVE (formerly 17 Media), and a 2020 share buyback provided substantial liquid fiat capital. 2. **Early crypto projects**: Though controversial and often unsuccessful (e.g., Mithril and Cream Finance), these ventures generated significant early crypto-native capital. 3. **NFT liquidity mining**: He strategically monetized high-value NFTs (like Bored Apes) through large-scale sales, airdrop farming (e.g., Blur rewards), and NFT-backed lending, continuously converting illiquid assets into ETH or stablecoins. His ability to absorb millions in losses suggests a deep, diversified reserve, estimated at over $100 million in unallocated liquid capital. He further refreshes this reserve by launching new token projects, like MACHI on Blast. For ordinary investors, this case is a stark warning: extreme leverage is highly risky, and surviving such volatility requires immense capital depth most do not have. Transparency on-chain exposes these risks, but the mechanical efficiency of platforms like Hyperliquid can amplify losses. The key lesson: survival outweighs the pursuit of rapid riches.

深潮12/16 14:53

Machi Big Brother's Leverage Game: Where Does the 'Never-Ending' Money Come From?

深潮12/16 14:53

Crypto Prediction in the Gray Zone: Alliance Formation, Regulatory Pressure, and the Battle for the Future

The article "Encrypted Predictions in the Gray Area: Alliances, Regulatory Pressure, and Future Debates" discusses the recent formation of the "Prediction Market Alliance" by Kalshi and Crypto.com, joined by Coinbase, Robinhood, and Underdog. This alliance aims to unify the industry's voice and promote a balance between regulation, liquidity, and trust in the rapidly growing but legally ambiguous encrypted prediction market sector. Unlike traditional gambling, encrypted prediction markets operate on blockchain or crypto-based event-trading mechanisms. Users trade contracts on uncertain outcomes like elections or sports events, with prices reflecting collective market probability assessments. Key differences from traditional betting include market-driven pricing (rather than house-set odds), continuous trading opportunities, and a focus on information discovery rather than entertainment. The market is bifurcated into crypto-native platforms like Polymarket (global, blockchain-based) and regulated entities like Kalshi (U.S.-approved). While these markets are expanding quickly—evidenced by surging trading volumes around events like U.S. elections—they face significant challenges: regulatory uncertainty, liquidity instability (high activity around events but drops afterward), and disputes over outcome resolution standards. The alliance seeks to advocate for responsible and transparent development amid growing consumer interest and evolving regulations. However, major players like Polymarket, DraftKings, and FanDuel have not joined, indicating divergent strategies within the industry. The future of encrypted prediction markets hinges on achieving scalable liquidity and long-term trust within a regulatory-acceptable framework.

cointelegraph_中文12/15 09:34

Crypto Prediction in the Gray Zone: Alliance Formation, Regulatory Pressure, and the Battle for the Future

cointelegraph_中文12/15 09:34

The Unhappy Casino Economy: American Youth Are Losing Confidence in the Future

Vibecession: America's youth are losing faith in the future amid an economy that feels like a rigged casino. Despite positive macroeconomic data, a deep sense of economic and democratic pessimism persists, driven by unaffordable housing, healthcare, and education (Baumol’s cost disease), alongside cognitive overload from digital distraction and AI anxiety. Trust in institutions and each other has collapsed, fueling a extractive, gamble-driven economy where few see a path to stability. Breaking this cycle requires addressing economic pressures, regulating predatory practices, and ensuring AI benefits are widely shared—not just enriching a few while ordinary Americans struggle.

marsbit12/14 23:38

The Unhappy Casino Economy: American Youth Are Losing Confidence in the Future

marsbit12/14 23:38

Kalshi Teams Up with Coinbase, Robinhood, and Others to Form Prediction Market Alliance, Aiming to End the 'Casino' Argument

Kalshi, a leading prediction market platform, has formed the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM) alongside major platforms including Coinbase, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Underdog. This move is a strategic response to increasing regulatory pressure and opposition from traditional gambling lobbyists, particularly following legal challenges in states like Connecticut and Nevada. The coalition aims to advocate for the prediction market industry, counter misinformation, and push for federal-level regulation, arguing that prediction markets are distinct from gambling. They emphasize that prediction markets generate valuable public information, outperform traditional polls by approximately 30%, and are used by nearly half of Americans under 45. With the industry valued at $28 billion as of October and platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket each exceeding $10 billion in valuation, the sector is expanding rapidly. Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, asserts that attacks from gambling interests are motivated by profit protection rather than consumer safety. The CPM will focus on promoting transparency, market integrity, and customer protection while leveraging federal jurisdiction to overcome state-level regulatory obstacles. This development signals the maturation of prediction markets as a significant new internet-driven sector, potentially surpassing traditional gambling in relevance and utility.

Odaily星球日报12/12 10:42

Kalshi Teams Up with Coinbase, Robinhood, and Others to Form Prediction Market Alliance, Aiming to End the 'Casino' Argument

Odaily星球日报12/12 10:42

Why Is It Difficult for Retail Investors to Break Free from the Loss Cycle of High-Frequency Trading?

Why Retail Traders Struggle to Escape the High-Frequency Trading Loss Cycle Retail investors often fall into a trap of continuous losses in cryptocurrency markets due to high-frequency day trading, which is structurally skewed against them. The author, sharing from personal experience, explains that frequent trading without informational advantages—such as access to real order flow, liquidity maps, or market maker positions—inevitably leads to financial ruin over time. The key insight is that winning isn’t just about making profits but about preserving them. Most successful retail traders actually succeed by trading less: catching major market moves, then stepping back to avoid giving back gains. In contrast, constant trading—often driven by overconfidence and the false belief that discipline and risk management alone can beat the market—results in consistent losses. The article compares modern day trading to a "casino disguised as a café," where inexperienced traders, especially young ones, mistake gambling for a learnable skill. They rely on superficial tools like TradingView charts without understanding that institutional traders use advanced systems like Bloomberg terminals with exclusive data. Ultimately, the author advises retail traders to reduce trading frequency, avoid day trading, and focus on long-term strategies instead of chasing quick wins. The real tragedy is not losing money but believing that high-frequency trading is a sustainable strategy rather than a form of gambling.

比推12/09 14:20

Why Is It Difficult for Retail Investors to Break Free from the Loss Cycle of High-Frequency Trading?

比推12/09 14:20

Losing Retail Traders Keep Trading, Winning Retail Traders Know When to Rest

Stop Losing Money in Crypto: Why Day Trading is a Structural "Scam" for Retail Investors The author, drawing from personal trading experience since adolescence, argues that day trading is fundamentally rigged against ordinary investors. Retail traders lack critical advantages like real order flow data, liquidity maps, or execution speed. While infrequent trading might be survivable, high-frequency trading almost guarantees eventual ruin due to mathematical inevitability, even with strong discipline and risk management. The key insight isn't about winning—it's about keeping the money. Major losses often follow big wins when traders don't step back. The author transformed his results by becoming a low-frequency swing trader who pauses after profitable trades. The piece warns that the current social media-driven day trading culture misleads young people (e.g., on TikTok or Discord) into believing it's a learnable skill, not gambling. This false sense of control is dangerous—it prevents them from quitting. Unlike a casino, which is openly a gamble, day trading is disguised as a legitimate "system," making it harder to recognize the risk. In reality, most profitable retail traders are simply lucky, catching a trend and having enough discipline to stop temporarily. True success lies not in making money, but in preserving it.

深潮12/09 05:49

Losing Retail Traders Keep Trading, Winning Retail Traders Know When to Rest

深潮12/09 05:49

活动图片

Популярные категорииright-arrow

Популярные тегиright-arrow

Regulatory Policy