Longs Recede, Volatility Weakens, Bitcoin Locks in $60K-$70K Range
Bitcoin remains range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000, with early signs of accumulation in spot markets and a reset in derivatives positioning. Overhead supply remains a key structural issue, with approximately 8.4 million BTC held at a loss, concentrated between $80,000 and $126,000. Long-term holder realized losses have risen to around $200 million per day, indicating ongoing distribution. While Coinbase spot flows have turned slightly positive, demand remains tentative. Corporate treasury buying has narrowed significantly, with only one major player continuing consistent accumulation. Perpetual funding rates have reset to neutral, and implied volatility has softened across the term structure. Options skew shows renewed defensive positioning, and negative gamma below the spot price suggests vulnerability to amplified downside moves. The market lacks a clear catalyst and appears to be in a redistribution phase rather than a trending environment, requiring stronger demand or further supply absorption to break out.
marsbit04/02 09:04