# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Arbitrage

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Arbitrage", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Wall Street 'Withdraws' from Bitcoin Basis Arbitrage: CME Falls Out of Favor, the Golden Age of Arbitrage Comes to an End

Wall Street is retreating from the once-lucrative Bitcoin basis trade, as narrowing spreads between spot and futures prices have made the strategy barely profitable. The cash-and-carry trade, which involved buying Bitcoin spot (often via ETFs) and selling futures to capture the premium, has seen annualized returns drop to around 5%, down from nearly 17% a year ago, barely covering funding and execution costs. This compression has led to a significant shift in market structure: CME's Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen below Binance's for the first time since 2023, indicating a withdrawal of hedge funds and large US accounts from this specific arbitrage strategy. While CME was the preferred venue for this institutional trade, Binance's dominance in perpetual futures has remained steady. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs initially fueled the trade's popularity but also accelerated its decline by attracting capital that quickly eroded the arbitrage opportunity. The market is now maturing, with participants shifting from simple leveraged directional bets to using options, hedges, and expressing views through diverse instruments like ETFs. This increased efficiency has naturally narrowed price disparities between venues. As the era of easy, high returns from basis trading ends, participants are expected to seek more complex strategies in decentralized markets and other crypto assets.

marsbit01/22 11:34

Wall Street 'Withdraws' from Bitcoin Basis Arbitrage: CME Falls Out of Favor, the Golden Age of Arbitrage Comes to an End

marsbit01/22 11:34

1-Minute Breakdown of Quantitative Models: High Rollers Hunt Down Trading Bots

In the emerging prediction markets, a mysterious trader known as a4385 executed a sophisticated attack against quantitative trading bots, netting $280,000 in 48 hours. These markets allow users to bet on short-term price movements of assets like XRP—for example, predicting whether the price will rise or fall within 15 minutes. Quant algorithms typically profit by exploiting散户情绪 and market inefficiencies with毫秒级 precision. On January 17, 2026, a4385 placed a "rise" bet in an XRP market when the price was below the starting price and the probability of success was only 36%. In the final minute before settlement, a4385 executed large market buy orders, artificially pumping XRP’s price just above the starting threshold at the exact moment of settlement—ensuring his bet paid out. The strategy relied on shallow order book depth (due to weekend trading and XRP’s lower liquidity), allowing a4385 to move the market with relatively modest volume (~$569,000 in the final minute. Each operation cost about $6,200 in fees, but yielded returns as high as $40,218 per round. To hedge against post-settlement price drops, a4385 held short positions of equivalent size, ensuring overall portfolio stability. This required significant capital—over a million dollars—highlighting that this was not luck or a散户 victory, but a calculated exploit of market structure, liquidity conditions, and quantitative model behavior.

marsbit01/21 04:45

1-Minute Breakdown of Quantitative Models: High Rollers Hunt Down Trading Bots

marsbit01/21 04:45

Dialogue with Axis: How a Group of Quantitative Traders is Reshaping 'Yield-Bearing Dollars' with Institutional Strategies?

Axis, founded by a team of quantitative traders including Chris (an early QCP Capital employee and co-founder of the $400M+ AUM fund Alphanonce with 35%+ annual returns), is building a protocol to generate sustainable, transparent yield on-chain through institutional-grade arbitrage strategies. The core product is USDx, a dollar-pegged synthetic asset that users can stake to earn yield. Unlike many DeFi protocols that rely on unsustainable token incentives or directional market bets, Axis’s returns are generated from real, verifiable cross-market arbitrage opportunities. The team’s extensive background in traditional finance, quant trading, and DeFi (with experience from firms like BlackRock, Tether, Ondo, and Maple) informs their focus on capital efficiency, rigorous risk management, and institutional security practices. Axis recently raised a $5M private round led by Galaxy Ventures, with participation from OKX Ventures and FalconX. The protocol is built on Plasma, chosen for its deep USDT liquidity and mature DeFi infrastructure, and is currently in a private testing phase ahead of public launch. Key innovations include a dynamic “arbitrage engine” that allocates capital across multiple strategies (not just basis trading) to capture opportunities in various market conditions. The team emphasizes transparency, with plans for on-chain, third-party-verified proof of reserves and delta-neutrality to build trust. Long-term, Axis aims to evolve from a yield generator into critical “liquidity infrastructure” for the on-chain economy, with plans to expand into yield-bearing assets backed by Bitcoin and gold.

marsbit01/20 03:03

Dialogue with Axis: How a Group of Quantitative Traders is Reshaping 'Yield-Bearing Dollars' with Institutional Strategies?

marsbit01/20 03:03

NYSE Launches 24/7 Tokenized Stock Trading: Which Crypto Businesses Will Directly Benefit or Suffer?

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has announced plans to launch a tokenized securities trading and on-chain settlement platform supporting 24/7 trading of U.S. stocks and ETFs, fractional shares, stablecoin-based settlements, and instant settlement. This move is expected to have significant implications for the crypto industry. Potential beneficiaries include compliant U.S. stablecoins like USDC, which could be chosen for settlements, boosting their adoption. Leveraged stock-to-crypto trading platforms (e.g., Hyperliquid) may benefit from improved hedging opportunities due to aligned 24/7 trading hours. Perpetual swap and basis trading protocols (e.g., Ethena) could gain new, high-quality assets for arbitrage strategies. Selected infrastructure providers, such as blockchains and oracles, may also see growth, though traditional finance connections will be crucial. Conversely, existing crypto-native stock tokenization platforms face direct competition from the NYSE's superior regulatory backing and promise of equal dividends and governance rights. Spot stock-to-crypto trading platforms are particularly vulnerable and may need to pivot to offshore markets or derivatives to survive. Overall, while the NYSE's entry threatens some crypto-native businesses, it highlights the growing value of crypto's unique strengths: stablecoin infrastructure, leveraged trading, and on-chain financial engineering. Competition will intensify, but new opportunities will emerge.

Odaily星球日报01/20 02:13

NYSE Launches 24/7 Tokenized Stock Trading: Which Crypto Businesses Will Directly Benefit or Suffer?

Odaily星球日报01/20 02:13

Delphi Digital: Three Major Trends in Prediction Markets

Delphi Digital outlines three key trends shaping the future of prediction markets, now a $600M+ sector. Major players like CME Group, Coinbase, and Robinhood are entering, while incumbents Polymarket and Kalshi aggressively expand. Polymarket focuses on CFTC-compliant crypto-native infrastructure, U.S. re-entry, and Web2 partnerships. Kalshi leverages regulatory advantages and orderbook liquidity for global growth. Layer 1 and Layer 2 networks now have economic incentives to capture prediction market activity. Verticalized markets for specific user groups will outperform generic platforms. Three predictions are highlighted: 1. **Perpetual-ized Options**: Prediction markets simplify options into binary, expiry-free formats (e.g., “Will BTC close above $150K on June 30?”), boosting accessibility. 2. **Native On-Chain Risk Markets**: These will provide DeFi-native insurance (e.g., short-term markets to hedge stETH depegging risks). 3. **Unbundling**: The stack will split to serve different users—professional tools (aggregators, advanced analytics) and social-first interfaces for mass adoption. AI agents may soon dominate arbitrage, pushing innovation toward new mechanisms like impact markets, sentiment prediction, virtual sports, futarchy, and coordination markets. Prediction markets are evolving into foundational infrastructure for options, insurance, and governance.

链捕手01/19 15:30

Delphi Digital: Three Major Trends in Prediction Markets

链捕手01/19 15:30

Hiring at $200K Annual Salary: Wall Street Advances into Prediction Markets

Wall Street firms are aggressively entering the prediction markets, with trading giants like DRW, Susquehanna, and Tyr Capital building specialized teams. DRW is offering up to $200,000 in base salary to hire traders who can monitor and trade on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Trading volume in these markets surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $8 billion by December 2025, attracting institutional interest. Unlike retail traders who often bet on single events, institutions focus on cross-platform arbitrage and structural opportunities. For example, hedge funds can use prediction markets to hedge investments with greater precision by pairing positions—such as buying "no recession" contracts on Polymarket while shorting overvalued bonds in credit markets. Market makers like Susquehanna, which has privileged access to lower fees and higher limits on platforms like Kalshi, are set to reduce arbitrage opportunities and improve liquidity. This professionalization may lead to more complex products, such as multi-event combos and conditional probability contracts. The entry of well-capitalized, technologically advanced institutions signals a maturation of prediction markets, mirroring the historical pattern of散户-driven innovation eventually dominated by professional players. While retail traders may find niches in long-tail events, the era of easy profits from informational edges is likely over.

marsbit01/15 04:02

Hiring at $200K Annual Salary: Wall Street Advances into Prediction Markets

marsbit01/15 04:02

From 100% Rebate to 20%: The Game Theory Behind Polymarket's Fee Adjustment

Polymarket recently adjusted its fee structure for 15-minute cryptocurrency prediction markets, moving from a 100% fee rebate to a 20% rebate for market makers. This change aims to combat "latency arbitrage" bots that exploited tiny time delays between exchange price updates and Polymarket’s price adjustments, harming market makers and reducing liquidity. Initially, full rebates were introduced to incentivize market makers to stay despite bot activity. After data showed a significant drop in fee volume—indicating reduced bot activity—the platform reduced rebates to 20% for a trial period. This reflects an ongoing effort to balance fairness among market makers, automated traders, and regular users. The article also references ongoing "money printer" strategies used by some successful traders and emphasizes Polymarket’s role in providing a competitive, strategy-driven environment.

marsbit01/14 13:33

From 100% Rebate to 20%: The Game Theory Behind Polymarket's Fee Adjustment

marsbit01/14 13:33

Unitas is Committed to Building a Global Savings Layer for Digital Assets and Compliant High-Yield Stablecoins

Unitas introduces a new market-neutral yield infrastructure standard, aiming to establish a global savings layer and compliant high-yield stablecoin ecosystem. It provides a modular yield service platform that decouples capital access, asset custody, and yield execution, serving both individual and institutional users without taking directional market risk. The core strength lies in its self-developed and self-operated yield engine, which manages the full lifecycle of signal generation, execution, and risk response. Unitas runs multiple market-neutral strategies under a unified risk framework, including delta-neutral liquidity strategies and basis arbitrage, ensuring returns come from market activity rather than price speculation. Built-in risk controls monitor exposures and hedging deviations in real-time, prioritizing stability over speed during volatility. Backed by 24/7 human oversight, the system demonstrated strong performance with a 16.7% net APY and only -0.16% max drawdown in 2025, including zero loss during extreme market conditions. Unitas emphasizes transparency through real-time disclosure of collateral and risk parameters. Future plans include expansion into TradFi, integration with RWA like tokenized stocks and commodities, and serving as a foundational yield layer connecting DeFi and traditional finance.

marsbit01/12 12:20

Unitas is Committed to Building a Global Savings Layer for Digital Assets and Compliant High-Yield Stablecoins

marsbit01/12 12:20

Polymarket Ecosystem Ultimate Guide: Over 170 Tools, Bots, and Products Reshaping Prediction Markets

Polymarket has evolved from a crypto-native experiment into the world's largest prediction market platform, with over $44 billion in trading volume in 2025 and a $9 billion valuation after a $2 billion investment from ICE. This growth has spurred a robust ecosystem of over 170 third-party tools across 19 categories, including AI-driven autonomous agents, arbitrage systems, whale tracking, copy trading, analytics, and educational resources. Key ecosystem segments include AI agents like Alphascope and PolyBro for automated trading and research; trading terminals such as Betmoar and mobile-first Polymtrade; analytics platforms like Polysights and HashDive; alert systems including PolyAlertHub and whale trackers; arbitrage tools like ArbBets; and educational resources like PolyNoob for newcomers. The ecosystem is characterized by high automation, with bots achieving up to 98% accuracy in short-term predictions and generating significant profits through latency arbitrage and market inefficiencies. Future developments may include a native $POLY token, a dedicated L1 blockchain, deeper AI integration, and increased institutional adoption, positioning Polymarket at the forefront of decentralized prediction markets.

marsbit01/12 08:49

Polymarket Ecosystem Ultimate Guide: Over 170 Tools, Bots, and Products Reshaping Prediction Markets

marsbit01/12 08:49

BitMEX Report Highlights Crypto Perpetual Swaps in 2025: The Year the Engine Broke and Rebuilt

The 2025 crypto derivatives market experienced a transformative crisis that exposed critical flaws in perpetual swaps, long considered the market's backbone. A pivotal October liquidation cascade erased $20 billion in positions as Auto-Deleveraging mechanisms failed, forcing market makers' hedged positions to close and triggering a systemic liquidity withdrawal. This event shattered trust in centralized exchanges, particularly those operating opaque B-Book models against users. Simultaneously, easy yield from funding rate arbitrage vanished due to overcrowded institutional strategies, pushing rates below traditional risk-free returns. Decentralized perpetual exchanges gained popularity but introduced new vulnerabilities, including oracle manipulation and governance gaps. Innovation emerged through equity perpetuals for 24/7 stock trading and tradable funding rate instruments. The market concluded the year leaner and more mature, prioritizing platform resilience, transparency, and fairness over leverage and speculative yield.

TheNewsCrypto01/09 07:58

BitMEX Report Highlights Crypto Perpetual Swaps in 2025: The Year the Engine Broke and Rebuilt