# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Arbitrage

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Arbitrage", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

High-Frequency Trading, $100K Annual Income: The Most 'Boring' Profit Myth on Polymarket

A user known as planktonXD (0x4ffe49ba2a4cae123536a8af4fda48faeb609f71) has generated over $106,000 in profit on Polymarket within a year by executing more than 61,000 predictions—averaging around 170 trades per day. This high-frequency, automated strategy focuses on exploiting small, certain opportunities rather than betting on high-risk, high-reward outcomes. The approach is characterized by market-making and micro-arbitrage: placing orders on both sides of the order book to capture spreads or profiting from mispriced options in low-liquidity markets. The largest single win was only $2,527, illustrating a disciplined, risk-managed method that avoids large drawdowns. The bot operates across diverse categories—sports, weather, crypto prices, politics—constantly scanning for pricing inefficiencies. Notable examples include buying heavily undervalued options in niche markets, such as esports matches or extreme crypto price movements, where probability is mispriced due to emotional trading or thin order books. For instance, a $16 bet on SOL falling to $130 (priced at 0.7¢, implying <1% chance) returned $1,574 during a volatile period. Key takeaways: The strategy highlights the power of compounding small gains, the necessity of automation and API tools, and the superiority of high-probability opportunities over high-risk bets. In prediction markets, the most advanced approach isn’t forecasting—it’s managing probability and liquidity.

marsbit02/11 13:06

High-Frequency Trading, $100K Annual Income: The Most 'Boring' Profit Myth on Polymarket

marsbit02/11 13:06

Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

Amidst a recent market downturn, the prediction market sector has shown remarkable resilience. Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market platform in the US, reached a record single-month trading volume exceeding $9.5 billion in January, making it the sector leader. This surge has sparked renewed interest in pricing its pre-IPO shares. Significant price discrepancies exist across different pre-IPO trading platforms. On PreStocks, Kalshi shares are priced between $364 and $369. On Jarsy, the price is notably higher at around $504. In contrast, traditional private markets like Nasdaq Private Market and Hiive list shares at approximately $320 and $358, respectively. The analysis suggests a reasonable pre-IPO share price range for Kalshi is between $320 and $423. This is based on its last private funding round valuation of $11 billion and an estimated implied valuation of at least $15 billion, supported by its surging trading volume which now nearly equals the entire prediction market's size from October of the previous year. The article concludes that Jarsy's current price appears high, while PreStocks may present a potential arbitrage opportunity. Furthermore, with 2026 being a major year for global sporting events, Kalshi's annual revenue potential is seen as substantial, potentially exceeding estimates for competitor Polymarket, which could lead to further increases in its pre-IPO valuation.

Odaily星球日报02/11 10:44

Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

Odaily星球日报02/11 10:44

ARK Invest: Will Stablecoins Become the Cornerstone of the Next Generation Monetary System?

ARK Invest explores whether stablecoins could become the cornerstone of the next monetary system, drawing parallels between today’s privately issued digital currencies and the free banking era in the U.S. prior to the Federal Reserve's establishment in 1913. The article highlights the emergence of Tether (USDT) in 2014 as a solution to slow cross-border dollar transfers in crypto markets. Initially used for arbitrage, stablecoins like USDT gained traction in emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic as a hedge against hyperinflation and currency devaluation. By 2025, USDT’s supply reached $187 billion, backed largely by U.S. Treasuries and serving over 450 million users globally. The discussion references the GENIUS Act, which legitimizes privately issued stablecoins, and features insights from Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, economist Arthur Laffer, and ARK CEO Cathie Wood. Laffer compares modern stablecoins to 19th-century private banknotes but notes that technological and regulatory advances mitigate past risks like fraud and instability. Looking forward, stablecoins may evolve into interest-bearing instruments or be pegged to baskets of commodities. Tether is also expanding into commodity settlement and developing new stablecoins like USAT for developed markets. The piece concludes that stablecoins could modernize financial infrastructure, combining the efficiency of blockchain with the stability of asset-backed currencies.

marsbit02/10 11:30

ARK Invest: Will Stablecoins Become the Cornerstone of the Next Generation Monetary System?

marsbit02/10 11:30

Can IBIT Really Trigger a Market-Wide Liquidation?

Market discussions have recently focused on the sharp Bitcoin decline and subsequent rebound in early February, with attention turning to the role of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Jeff Park, an advisor at Bitwise, suggests the volatility was closely tied to IBIT’s record-high trading volume and put-heavy options activity on February 5. Contrary to expectations, IBIT saw net creation—not redemption—amid the sell-off, indicating the drop may not have been driven by ETF investor panic. Instead, the pressure likely originated from institutional deleveraging and risk reduction within traditional finance structures. Market makers and multi-asset portfolios adjusted derivatives and hedging positions, transmitting stress through IBIT’s secondary market and options activity, ultimately affecting Bitcoin's price. A common narrative attributes sell-offs to ETF redemptions forcing BTC liquidations. However, only authorized participants (APs) can create or redeem shares. Secondary market trading—no matter how large—only changes share ownership, not the underlying BTC held in custody. On the day of the drop, net BTC outflows from all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to only 5,952 BTC, a small fraction of total holdings. When IBIT sells off in the secondary market, APs may arbitrage discounts by buying shares and hedging with BTC spot sales or futures shorts. This hedging can transmit selling pressure to Bitcoin markets even without significant net redemptions. Thus, IBIT’s influence operates through complex, layered mechanisms rather than direct BTC liquidation.

marsbit02/09 07:39

Can IBIT Really Trigger a Market-Wide Liquidation?

marsbit02/09 07:39

From the Wild Path to the Table: Why Compliance is the Inevitable Route

The article "From the Fringes to the Main Table: Why Compliance is the Inevitable Path" discusses the critical shift toward regulatory compliance in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, using key players like Binance, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid as case studies. It highlights how Binance leveraged regulatory arbitrage to become a global leader by 2017 but faced increasing pressure from regulators, leading to its compliance efforts in jurisdictions like Abu Dhabi (ADGM) by 2025. Meanwhile, Coinbase capitalized on U.S. regulatory frameworks under evolving policies, though its growth in derivatives markets remained limited. Hyperliquid emerged as a significant player by exploiting gaps left by larger exchanges, capturing about 15% of Binance's market share through derivatives and ventures into non-traditional areas like precious metals and prediction markets—yet its long-term sustainability hinges on eventual compliance. The piece argues that compliance is no longer optional but essential for scalability and legitimacy, especially as Real-World Assets (RWA)—such as tokenized stocks, bonds, and stablecoins—gain traction. Regulatory clarity, particularly from the U.S. and China, is reshaping the landscape, forcing once-"underground" economies to formalize or risk exclusion from major markets. The conclusion underscores that while regulatory arbitrage offers short-term advantages, the future of crypto and DeFi depends on integrating into established financial systems under clear rules.

比推02/09 04:15

From the Wild Path to the Table: Why Compliance is the Inevitable Route

比推02/09 04:15

Retail Investors' 'Short Squeeze' Turns into 'Stampede': How a Silver Frenzy Became a Mass Grave?

The article details how a retail-driven silver squeeze, initially hailed as the "2026 GameStop," rapidly turned into a catastrophic crash, described as a "mass grave" for small investors. In January 2026, retail investors poured a record $1 billion into silver ETFs, with trading volume nearly matching that of the S&P 500 ETF at its peak. Fueled by social media hype and comparisons to the GameStop rally, silver prices soared to over $120 per ounce. However, the rally abruptly ended in just three days, with prices plummeting 40%, erasing all gains and causing significant losses. The crash was triggered not by news events, as initially speculated, but by a 50% increase in margin requirements imposed by the CME exchange. This forced over-leveraged retail investors to liquidate positions automatically, initiating a vicious cycle of selling. While散户 were forced to sell at the worst prices, institutional players like JPMorgan capitalized on the chaos. They accessed emergency liquidity from the Federal Reserve, exploited their role as authorized participants in silver ETFs to arbitrage price discrepancies, and strategically acquired physical assets at depressed prices. The piece concludes that the silver market is inherently risky and structurally skewed in favor of institutions, highlighting the vast power imbalance where retail enthusiasm and memes are no match for algorithmic trading, leverage, and rule-making authority.

比推02/05 13:45

Retail Investors' 'Short Squeeze' Turns into 'Stampede': How a Silver Frenzy Became a Mass Grave?

比推02/05 13:45

From Libya to Iran: Nations in Blackout, Bitcoin Miners Uninterrupted

From Libya to Iran: Nations in Darkness, Bitcoin Miners That Never Stop In the summer of 2025, Tehran and other parts of Iran faced extreme heat and severe power outages, forcing government offices and schools to shut down. Hospitals relied on diesel generators to keep life-saving equipment running. Yet, behind city walls, rows of Bitcoin mining machines continued operating at full capacity, almost never losing power. Similarly, in Libya, residents endure daily blackouts of 6 to 8 hours, while unauthorized mining farms in abandoned industrial sites run non-stop, using some of the world’s cheapest electricity—subsidized as low as $0.004 per kWh—to mine Bitcoin, often with outdated equipment smuggled into the country. This reflects one of the 21st century’s starkest energy paradoxes: in nations crippled by sanctions and civil conflict, electricity is no longer just a public service but a form of “exportable” hard currency. In Iran, mining was legalized in 2019 as a state strategy to bypass international financial sanctions. Miners were required to sell mined Bitcoin to the central bank. However, an estimated 85% of mining occurred illegally or semi-legally, often with ties to powerful entities. Despite temporary bans and crackdowns, mining rebounded quickly, draining the national grid and worsening public power shortages. Libya, fragmented since the fall of Gaddafi, lacks coherent regulation. Although cryptocurrency transactions and mining imports are officially banned, enforcement is weak. Low subsidized electricity prices create irresistible incentive for mining operators—including foreign groups—to run energy-intensive operations with obsolete machines, while ordinary citizens face daily blackouts. In both countries, Bitcoin mining functions less as a legitimate industry and more as a form of resource extraction: it creates few jobs, contributes little in taxes, and often channels profits overseas. The real cost is borne by society—frequent blackouts, overloaded grids, and compromised public services like healthcare and education. Ultimately, the issue is not Bitcoin itself, but who controls the allocation of public resources. When energy subsidies meant for public welfare are diverted for private gain, it deepens inequality and institutional distrust. As citizens sit in darkness, the miners’ machines continue to hum—a symbol of energy injustice in a fractured world.

marsbit02/02 02:38

From Libya to Iran: Nations in Blackout, Bitcoin Miners Uninterrupted

marsbit02/02 02:38

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