Bitcoin traders have begun rebuilding upside expectations following last week’s sharp sell-off. Prediction market data shows a rebound in confidence even as spot price action and derivatives positioning remain cautious.
On Polymarket, traders are currently pricing a 61% probability that Bitcoin reaches $75,000 in February, up roughly 8 percentage points from recent lows.
The shift follows a period of heightened volatility that saw Bitcoin briefly slide into the high-$60,000 range before stabilizing near $70,000.
Prediction markets signal recovering confidence
The move higher in Polymarket odds reflects a reassessment of upside risk after the sell-off rather than a decisive change in trend.
While a 61% probability indicates the outcome is favored, it also implies that a sizable portion of traders—nearly 40%—remain unconvinced that Bitcoin will clear the $75,000 level within the month.
Trading activity on the contract has been active, with tens of millions of dollars in volume. It suggests the odds are responding quickly to price movements rather than drifting on thin liquidity.
Bitcoin spot price stabilizes, trend remains fragile
Bitcoin’s spot price has rebounded modestly from recent lows and is hovering around $70,000–71,000, but the broader structure remains weak.
Price is still trading below key moving averages, and the longer-term trend continues to slope lower following the January breakdown.
Volume spiked during the sell-off and eased during the rebound, a pattern typically associated with liquidation-led moves rather than renewed accumulation. While some dip buying has emerged near the lows, there is limited evidence so far of sustained follow-through.
Derivatives positioning stays defensive
Derivatives data adds another layer of caution. According to Coinglass, the Bitcoin long/short ratio has remained tilted toward the short side, with aggressive sell orders dominating taker volume during and after the drop.
Notably, there has been no sustained surge in long positioning alongside the rebound in spot prices.
This suggests that while expectations have improved, traders have been hesitant to reintroduce leverage, preferring to wait for clearer confirmation from price action.
Expectations improve faster than Bitcoin positioning
The data points to a market that has absorbed a volatility shock but has not yet transitioned back into a risk-on phase.
Prediction markets are signaling renewed optimism around February upside, but spot trends and derivatives positioning indicate continued caution.
For now, Bitcoin is in a stabilization phase, with sentiment recovering more quickly than conviction across leveraged markets.
Final Thoughts
- Polymarket odds show recovering confidence after Bitcoin’s sell-off, but expectations remain far from unanimous.
- Spot price and derivatives data suggest stabilization rather than a confirmed return to upside momentum.
