According to a detailed Bitwise thread, Bitcoin [BTC] has entered a new market phase. The firm noted that Bitcoin no longer behaves like a leverage‐driven asset.
Bitwise explained that institutional access and regulatory oversight have replaced the hype surrounding halving and speculative excess. This shift, they argued, has helped reduce the extreme boom‐and‐bust cycles that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior.
Why Bitcoin stayed calmer than Nvidia
Bitwise reported that Bitcoin was less volatile than Nvidia throughout 2025. The firm highlighted how Bitcoin’s rolling volatility has steadily declined over the past decade.
They described this trend as structural derisking across the crypto market. According to Bitwise, the shift is directly linked to the rise of ETFs, which have broadened Bitcoin’s investor base and helped smooth out volatility.
Currently, these exchange‐traded funds act as the new whales, steering Bitcoin and wider crypto flows. When ETFs withdraw liquidity, markets interpret it as “risk off.” Conversely, when they buy aggressively, sentiment flips to “risk on.”
ETFs, institutions, and expanding market exposure
Bitwise predicted that, in 2026, ETFs will purchase more than the entire new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum [ETH], and Solana [SOL]. Since launch, Bitcoin ETFs have bought 710,777 BTC, while the network has produced 363,047 BTC.
The firm predicted that crypto equities will decisively outperform tech stocks in the current market cycle. It highlighted its Crypto Innovators 30 Index, which surged 585%, far surpassing tech’s 140% gain.
Bitwise extended the outlook to prediction markets, stablecoins, and tokenization. It predicted Polymarket open interest would reach new highs and warned stablecoins could be blamed for destabilizing an emerging market currency as supply neared $300B.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s price action
At press time, Bitcoin traded near $88k, holding visible support after the broader pullback. Price reactions appeared more controlled than prior cycle corrections.
MACD fell to extreme bearish levels during the drop toward $80,000.
Momentum has dropped below the previous lows from August 2024 and April 2025, reflecting patterns of earlier exhaustion phases.
Final Thoughts
- Bitwise framed Bitcoin’s lower volatility versus Nvidia as a lasting structural shift.
- ETFs, regulation, and institutions reshaped Bitcoin’s price behavior and market role.
