Bitcoin MVRV Pattern Predicts Major Downswing Ahead – Details

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $78,000, as prices continue to fall following another rejection at the $82,000 barrier on Friday. Despite the encouraging rally over the five weeks of Q2 2026, several analysts predict Bitcoin is now in the initial stages of another prolonged price correction, likely heading to an “actual” price bottom. According to market analyst Crypto Chan on X, historical MVRV data reinforces this outlook, indicating that BTC could be positioning for a final leg down before establishing a more sustainable price floor.

Bitcoin MVRV Mirrors 2018 Bear Market

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric is used to gauge the current market condition: a ratio above 1 suggests an asset may be overvalued, while a ratio below 1 indicates an undervalued market.

In an X post on May 16, Crypto Chan explains that the Bitcoin MVRV metric is currently showing a bearish structure similar to that seen in the 2018 bear market. In that cycle, BTC experienced its final capitulation phase after the MVRV ratio initially declined to around 1.15, then rebounded to 1.63, ultimately preceding the market’s last downswing and the eventual price bottom.

18年熊市最后一跌前,比特币 MVRV 最低跌至 1.15,之后最高反弹 1.63

本轮熊市截至目前,比特币 MVRV 最低跌至 1.14,之后最高反弹 1.51 https://t.co/angWCNrv04 pic.twitter.com/Kvkv3OvFZQ

— CryptoChan (@0xCryptoChan) May 17, 2026

Similar to that time, the Bitcoin MVRV metric had dropped to 1.14 when prices reached the current cycle bottom of $60,000. Since then, the premier cryptocurrency has registered steady gains, rising to its recent peak of $82,000, while the MVRV ratio has rebounded to 1.51. Based on historical data, this on-chain pattern could signal another sustained price decline for Bitcoin.

How Low Could BTC Go?

Alongside Crypto Chan, other analysts are also betting on a downside move amid the asset price struggle with the $82,000 zone. In a separate X post, market pundit Kabuki predicts that the leading cryptocurrency is now reacting to the completion of the bearish head-and-shoulders formation on its weekly chart.

Kabuki’s analysis forecasts Bitcoin to retreat to $70,000 in the coming days and drop to $41,000 in June. The projected path outlines a series of key support levels, beginning at $61,000 and $47,000, before a brief relief bounce toward $55,000. This temporary recovery is then anticipated to give way to a final sell-off, ultimately forming a market bottom around $41,000.

At press time, the premier cryptocurrency is valued at $78,044 following a minor 0.51% decline in the last day. With a market cap of $1.56 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency and 12th largest asset in the world.