Bitcoin’s price action tightened as the yearly close approached, placing traders at a critical decision point. Historically, Bitcoin had never closed a post-halving year in the red, raising stakes into year-end.
At the time of writing on the 26th of December, Bitcoin traded above $90,000, holding key psychological support.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] price remained roughly 3% below the yearly open at $93,400, a level closely watched by market participants.
Could the final days of the year decide Bitcoin’s broader trend into 2026?
Post-halving context and the $93,400 yearly open
Bitcoin’s post-halving years historically favored upside continuation, especially near yearly candle closes. Past cycles showed sustained momentum once Bitcoin reclaimed its yearly open during late-cycle consolidations.
The $93,400 level represented both structural resistance and a psychological pivot for longer-term sentiment. Failure to reclaim it previously led to temporary pullbacks, rather than full trend reversals.
Market participants monitored this level as a potential trigger for expanded volatility. A decisive reclaim historically shifted positioning toward upside continuation.
Ascending channel and momentum compression
Bitcoin continued printing higher lows within a clearly defined ascending channel on lower timeframes. This structure suggested controlled accumulation despite broader market uncertainty.
RSI remained elevated without entering extreme overbought territory, signaling sustained demand. Meanwhile, MACD compression pointed toward a potential volatility expansion rather than immediate exhaustion.
BTC’s price action reflected balance rather than distribution, keeping directional bias unresolved. Traders awaited a catalyst capable of breaking the compression phase.
Where does liquidation risk sit now?
Leverage accumulated aggressively on both sides of the market during this consolidation phase. A 10% upside move threatened roughly $7.79 billion in short liquidations.
Conversely, a similar downside move risked liquidating approximately $6 billion in long positions. This two-sided exposure heightened sensitivity to sudden directional shifts.
Such positioning often preceded sharp expansions once the price escaped compression. However, direction remained dependent on spot-driven follow-through.
How did Coinbase become BTC’s largest seller?
Exchange flow data showed Coinbase surpassing Binance as the largest Bitcoin seller over the past week. This shift suggested increased institutional or U.S.-based distribution activity.
Despite selling pressure, Bitcoin’s structure remained intact above $90,000 support. The market absorbed supply without triggering breakdowns, indicating underlying demand strength.
Whether this selling capped upside or fueled rotation remained unclear. Traders continued watching exchange behavior closely.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the yearly open could reinforce post-halving upside expectations into early 2026.
- Failure to break $93,400 may extend consolidation without invalidating broader bullish structure.
