The current cryptocurrency market is in a critical transition phase. After months of correction, Bitcoin has recently shown a slight rebound and is retesting a key support range it previously lost. However, overall, the foundation for market recovery remains unstable, and the trend is still fragile. Accumulating macro pressures, marginally weakening liquidity, and approaching key policy events are changing market pricing logic. Entering April, while there are seasonal expectations of relative strength, historical performance has been clearly divergent. The market movement is more likely to be driven by liquidity, positioning structure, and macro catalysts rather than a simple repetition of past cycles.
Repeated Support Tests: Trend Fragility Persists
Since entering a downward phase in October 2025, Bitcoin has tested a key support range for the third time. Historically, similar structures often play out as follows: after support is lost, there is a rapid decline, followed by the formation of a阶段性低点 (stage low) and an attempt to build new support, but the overall trend is not truly reversed. The market's return to a similar level now indicates that the support below is still undergoing repeated testing, and the fragility of the trend has not significantly improved.
In terms of rhythm, this type of low-level consolidation typically does not immediately confirm a direction. Instead, it requires a period of fluctuation before entering the next phase of movement. The current $65,000–$66,000 range has become a key watershed. A break below this level could see the market enter another phase of accelerated decline, potentially targeting lower ranges.
Liquidity and Macroeconomics Dominate: Rhythm Over Direction
April has historically been considered a relatively strong month, but data shows this pattern is not stable. Especially when Bitcoin enters April in a non-strong state, the行情 (market performance) often shows阶段性分化 (stage divergence). This time, Bitcoin is entering the month in a relatively neutral state, similar to the environment before previous rallies, but the short-term rhythm remains cautious.
More critically, the dominant factors for the market have shifted from a single narrative to liquidity and macroeconomic variables. Rising oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, strengthening the market's judgment that central banks will maintain a hawkish stance, while also supporting the US dollar—factors historically putting pressure on Bitcoin. Furthermore, slowing stablecoin growth and ETF flows being sensitive to policy signals also reflect that liquidity has not yet formed sustained upward momentum.
In terms of temporal structure, the internal rhythm within April is also key: liquidity is thin and volatility amplifies early in the month; macro data and policy expectations are密集释放 (released intensively) mid-month; direction may only become clearer towards the end of the month after the FOMC meeting. This means that, compared to simply judging rises or falls, grasping the rhythm will become a more core trading variable.
Overall, Bitcoin is still in a relatively fragile stage, and short-term downward pressure has not been fully released. Under the baseline scenario, the market may continue to operate weakly in the first half of April. If the key support range is lost, the pace of decline could accelerate further. However, judging by the cycle position, this weakening phase is likely nearing its later stages. As tax-related selling pressure gradually subsides and policy expectations stabilize, the market environment is expected to improve marginally. Even if a rebound occurs, momentum is more likely to emerge gradually around mid-month or later. For investors, the current stage is not suitable for relying on simple seasonal patterns. Instead, they should focus on changes in liquidity, macroeconomic variables, and positioning structure, waiting for clearer recovery signs to emerge while controlling risk.
Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market is risky, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
