Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)
From last night to this morning, the cryptocurrency market has suffered another heavy blow.
Around 8:10 AM this morning, BTC briefly dropped below 91,000 USDT (falling as low as 90,888 USDT). As of 10:15 AM, it was priced at 91,899.9 USDT, reflecting a 24-hour drop of 4.31%.
The altcoin market is even more devastating, with the two leading altcoins, ETH and SOL, suffering heavy losses. Due to the impact of hackers accelerating money laundering, ETH fell below 2,500 USDT and is currently priced at 2,487.01 USDT, marking a 24-hour drop of 10.96%. Meanwhile, the already weak SOL has dropped below 140 USDT, currently standing at 139.56 USDT, down 14.88% in the past 24 hours.
Looking around the market, aside from a few new coins like IP and LAYER, which have recorded positive gains recently, most other cryptocurrencies have seen declines of over 10% or even 20%.
Alternative data shows that the Fear & Greed Index has fallen from 49 to 25, marking a return to "extreme fear" for the first time in five months.
Derivatives Data Shows Significant Liquidations
According to Coinglass data, the past 24 hours have seen a total of $956 million in liquidations across the network, with the majority being long position liquidations, totaling $885 million. In terms of coins, BTC saw $278 million in liquidations, while ETH faced $203 million.
Is the Next Step Really $70,000?
Amid this uncertain market, several industry leaders have shared their predictions about the future market direction.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who has been "bearish to $70,000" since the end of January, once again offered his analysis. Arthur mentioned that many IBIT holders are hedge funds, who profit by going long on ETFs and shorting CME futures to earn returns higher than short-term US Treasury bonds. If the BTC price drops, narrowing the basis, these funds will sell IBIT and buy back CME futures. These funds are currently profitable, and given that the basis is close to US Treasury yields, they will likely close positions during U.S. trading hours to lock in profits. In summary, Arthur continues to be bearish on BTC, expecting it to fall to $70,000.
On the other hand, Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder, offered a different perspective. Burniske remains confident that this is just a mid-cycle correction in the bull market, not the beginning of a bear market. He reminded people to recall that during the 2021 bull run, BTC, ETH, SOL, and other altcoins also experienced over 50% corrections at their midpoints.
Altcoins Near Breaking Point
Compared to the gradual maturation of BTC, retail investors are likely more concerned about the future performance of ETH and SOL, the two major altcoins, but the current outlook is not promising.
ETH has faced a significant blow recently. ETH Denver was supposed to be a great opportunity for the Ethereum community to regain confidence, but the sudden Bybit hack involving $1.5 billion of stolen funds has delivered a heavy blow to ETH.
Just a few days ago, ETH holders were consoling themselves with thoughts like "Bybit will buy back the stolen ETH" and "the hacker's sell-off may take years." However, Bybit has now mostly replenished the stolen ETH through over-the-counter (OTC) and lending channels, removing potential buying pressure. Meanwhile, the hacker's money laundering speed has greatly exceeded market expectations, having already laundered over 20% of the funds in just a few days.
SOL's situation is even worse. On one hand, the wealth effect from meme tokens like LIBRA is gradually fading, reducing SOL's "golden shovel" status. On the other hand, the large-scale SOL auction unlocking on March 1st has led some holders to choose to sit on the sidelines, withdrawing and waiting.
"Altcoins All-Rising" Seems Impossible to Recreate, "Filtering Out the Fake" is Underway
In conclusion, as the market evolves to this stage, the much-anticipated "altcoin season" seems to be coming to an end. This bull market is increasingly looking like a solo dance by BTC.
As for the future of altcoins, I personally lean towards the view shared by Wintermute's founder and CEO, Evgeny Gaevoy, at last week's Consensus conference in Hong Kong—there will no longer be a broad market-wide bull run. Investors will focus more on protocols that truly have practical use cases and sustainable economic models.
The entire cryptocurrency industry seems to be undergoing a large-scale "filtering out the fake," and perhaps once the "sand" is cleared, the true "gold" will finally be discovered.
