# Liquidity Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Liquidity", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's 'Dollar Liquidity Anxiety' – What Fate Awaits in the Easing Cycle?

Arthur Hayes analyzes the divergent performance of Bitcoin, gold, and US tech stocks (Nasdaq 100) in 2025, attributing it to shifts in US dollar liquidity and geopolitical factors. While Bitcoin declined due to contracting dollar liquidity, gold surged as central banks, wary of US sanctions after the 2022 Russian asset freeze, accelerated gold accumulation as a reserve alternative. The Nasdaq outperformed despite liquidity contraction because the US government, under Trump, effectively nationalized the AI industry, directing policy and credit to strategic sectors, similar to China's state-capitalist model. Hayes predicts a reversal in 2026, with three key drivers expanding dollar liquidity: the Fed's new Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program injecting at least $40B monthly, increased bank lending to government-backed strategic industries, and a $200B mortgage-backed securities purchase to lower rates and stimulate housing. He argues Bitcoin's price is tightly correlated with dollar liquidity and expects it to rally as liquidity expands. His investment strategy includes leveraged Bitcoin exposure through equities like MSTR and Metaplanet, and accumulating Zcash (ZEC).

marsbit01/15 08:25

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's 'Dollar Liquidity Anxiety' – What Fate Awaits in the Easing Cycle?

marsbit01/15 08:25

From "On-Chain Applications" to "Financial Infrastructure": The Generational Evolution and Transformation of Perp DEX

Title: From "On-Chain Applications" to "Financial Infrastructure": The Generational Evolution of Perp DEX The 2025 period was a "great filtering era" for the derivatives sector. Surviving Perp DEX platforms have moved beyond being mere "low-cost versions" of CEXs by solving the core cost in finance: trust. With the adoption of full-chain abstraction, users in 2026 can perform seamless cross-chain transactions while retaining asset sovereignty, as funds are secured in smart contracts rather than held by intermediaries. On-chain derivatives now consistently account for over 25% of total trading volume, marking a fundamental shift in user behavior. Over 90% of Perp DEXs failed due to product homogeneity, reliance on subsidized "rented liquidity," and soaring customer acquisition costs. Merely forking existing code or offering token incentives proved unsustainable. Four successful models have emerged: 1. **Hyperliquid**: Achieved near-CEX performance by building its own L1 blockchain optimized for low-latency order books, attracting quantitative capital. 2. **Aster**: Leveraged the Binance ecosystem to offer enhanced capital efficiency, allowing users to earn yield on collateral (e.g., staking rewards) while trading. 3. **Lighter**: Built an app-specific ZK-Rollup to provide a verifiable, mathematically-proven trading infrastructure with anti-MEV properties, appealing to institutions. 4. **Decibel**: Unified high performance and full-chain composability on Aptos, achieving sub-20ms latency and enabling cross-chain margin accounts for seamless trading from wallets like MetaMask. Future evolution will focus on: * **Intent-centric trading**: Users express a desired outcome, and solvers find the optimal execution path. * **AI Agents**: The rise of AI-driven trading strategies will require DEXs to provide high computational power and low latency. * **Advanced Pricing Models**: Dynamic risk engines will use real-time volatility data to automatically adjust parameters, increasing system robustness beyond traditional CEXs. The key to survival is providing unparalleled execution efficiency that capital and trading strategies cannot refuse.

marsbit01/15 04:34

From "On-Chain Applications" to "Financial Infrastructure": The Generational Evolution and Transformation of Perp DEX

marsbit01/15 04:34

Visa Effect

Visa Effect: A Blueprint for Stablecoin Network Growth The article draws parallels between the fragmented early days of the credit card industry and the current state of stablecoins. In the 1960s, numerous banks operated isolated payment networks, creating settlement chaos. Visa succeeded not just through technology, but by creating a cooperative, independent structure that aligned incentives. It acted as a neutral third party, allowing member banks to share profits proportionally, have governance rights, and initially adhere to exclusivity clauses. This fostered powerful network effects. Today, stablecoins face similar fragmentation, with over 300 stablecoins listed on Defillama. Services that enable protocols to issue their own branded stablecoins (e.g., Ethena, Anchorage Digital) are compared to the failed BankAmericard model, which only fractures liquidity and prevents any single stablecoin from achieving mainstream network effects. The proposed solution is a Visa-like model for stablecoins: an independent, third-party cooperative. Issuers and applications supporting a specific asset class would join, share in reserve yields, and have governance rights over the stablecoin's development. This structure would consolidate liquidity, create internal compounding network effects, and drive widespread adoption.

marsbit01/15 01:53

Gold to Reach $12,000? Arthur Hayes Deciphers the 'War Code' Behind It

Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin's underperformance in 2025, compared to gold and the Nasdaq, is due to a decline in US dollar liquidity. He posits that gold's surge is driven by price-insensitive central bank buying, fueled by a global shift away from US Treasury holdings following the 2022 seizure of Russian assets. This move towards settling trade deficits with gold supports its rise independent of dollar liquidity. Conversely, the Nasdaq's resilience is attributed to the "nationalization" of AI by the US and China, where government-backed capital expenditure continues to fuel growth of strategic tech companies despite tighter liquidity. Hayes predicts a significant expansion of dollar liquidity in 2026 through Federal Reserve actions, increased bank lending, and lower mortgage rates, which he believes will propel Bitcoin's price upward. His trading strategy involves leveraged Bitcoin exposure through stocks like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet.

比推01/15 00:17

Gold to Reach $12,000? Arthur Hayes Deciphers the 'War Code' Behind It

比推01/15 00:17

Stablecoins Control 60% of Revenue but Face 'Liquidation' from Interest Rate Cuts

The article analyzes the revenue structure of the crypto industry, highlighting that stablecoin issuers, particularly Tether and Circle, dominate with over 60% of the total revenue, though their share is expected to weaken due to declining interest rates. Decentralized perpetual exchanges (perp DEXs) like Hyperliquid emerged as a significant revenue driver, accounting for 7-8% of total revenue in 2025, surpassing older DeFi sectors. Three key revenue sources are identified: spread income (from stablecoins), trade execution (from perp DEXs), and distribution channels (from token launch platforms). The industry generated $16 billion in revenue in 2025, with 58% retained by protocols after paying suppliers. Notably, value transfer to token holders via rewards, buybacks, and burns increased, reaching over 18% of protocol revenue at its peak, signaling a shift toward token-based economic ownership. The trend is expected to accelerate in 2026 as protocols prioritize incentivizing holders.

比推01/14 14:21

Stablecoins Control 60% of Revenue but Face 'Liquidation' from Interest Rate Cuts

比推01/14 14:21

From 100% Rebate to 20%: The Game Theory Behind Polymarket's Fee Adjustment

Polymarket recently adjusted its fee structure for 15-minute cryptocurrency prediction markets, moving from a 100% fee rebate to a 20% rebate for market makers. This change aims to combat "latency arbitrage" bots that exploited tiny time delays between exchange price updates and Polymarket’s price adjustments, harming market makers and reducing liquidity. Initially, full rebates were introduced to incentivize market makers to stay despite bot activity. After data showed a significant drop in fee volume—indicating reduced bot activity—the platform reduced rebates to 20% for a trial period. This reflects an ongoing effort to balance fairness among market makers, automated traders, and regular users. The article also references ongoing "money printer" strategies used by some successful traders and emphasizes Polymarket’s role in providing a competitive, strategy-driven environment.

marsbit01/14 13:33

From 100% Rebate to 20%: The Game Theory Behind Polymarket's Fee Adjustment

marsbit01/14 13:33

After Hitting $94,000, Holding Firm at $90,000, BTC Continues to Face Risk Appetite Test (01.05~01.11)

BTC opened the week at $91,499.04 and closed at $90,872.01, a slight decline of 0.68% with amplified volatility of 6.15%. After briefly testing the $94,000 resistance level—driven by improved Fed liquidity and soft-landing expectations from U.S. employment data—selling pressure from ETF investors and long-term holders pushed the price back toward the $90,000 support zone. Macro conditions show a resilient U.S. economy with low unemployment and steady wage growth, reducing the likelihood of a January rate cut. This has kept risk appetite subdued, particularly for high-duration assets like Bitcoin. Despite this, technical indicators suggest a gradually strengthening structure, with the 60-day moving average providing support. A break above $94,000 could open a path toward $95,000. On-chain data reveals continued distribution by long-term holders, though the pace has slowed. Capital flow trends show net outflows from BTC ETFs and stablecoins, while large holders (“whales”) continue accumulating at lower levels without aggressively supporting upward moves. The market remains in a fragile balance between distribution and accumulation, with overall sentiment cautious. According to EMC Labs’ cycle metrics, BTC is currently in a “downtrend” phase (bear market).

marsbit01/14 12:15

After Hitting $94,000, Holding Firm at $90,000, BTC Continues to Face Risk Appetite Test (01.05~01.11)

marsbit01/14 12:15

2025 Epic Showdown: Has DEX Finally Overtaken CEX?

In 2025, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) experienced unprecedented growth, with trading volume nearly quadrupling compared to previous years. This surge was particularly driven by the rise of perpetual decentralized exchanges (Perp DEXs), which saw a 176% increase in annual trading volume—exceeding the cumulative total of the previous four years. Key players like Hyperliquid, Lighter, and Aster led this expansion, while established platforms like dYdX and GMX saw slower growth. The year began with Solana-based DEXs outperforming Ethereum in Q4 2024, fueled by meme coin and AI-related trading. However, Ethereum regained momentum in Q1 2025 following its Pectra upgrade and renewed investor confidence. Binance’s collaboration with PancakeSwap in Q2 significantly boosted BSC-based DEX volume, while Q3 saw intensified competition among Perp DEXs and the successful launch of Jupiter Lend, which attracted over $1 billion in deposits within days. Despite a market shake-up in Q4 due to the "10·11" liquidation event, Perp DEXs demonstrated resilience, with Aster and Lighter recovering faster than Hyperliquid. In spot trading, Uniswap maintained dominance in TVL, while Solana-based DEXs collectively reached trading volumes comparable to Uniswap. The article concludes that DEXs are not outright replacing centralized exchanges (CEXs) but are evolving alongside them. Both are integrating each other’s strengths—DEXs improving in efficiency and user experience, and CEXs adopting self-custody and on-chain transparency—suggesting a future of coexistence rather than displacement.

marsbit01/14 10:14

2025 Epic Showdown: Has DEX Finally Overtaken CEX?

marsbit01/14 10:14

Who Controls the Revenue Lifeblood of the Crypto Industry?

The article analyzes the revenue dynamics of the crypto industry, which generated over $16 billion in revenue in 2025—double that of 2024. The largest revenue drivers are stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle, which account for 60% of total industry revenue. However, decentralized perpetual exchanges (perp DEXs) such as Hyperliquid, EdgeX, Lighter, and Axiom emerged as a significant new sector, collectively contributing 7-8% of total revenue—more than established DeFi sectors like lending and staking combined. Three key factors drive crypto revenue: spread income (e.g., interest from stablecoin reserves), transaction execution (e.g., perp DEXs enabling high-frequency trading), and distribution channels (e.g., token launch platforms like pump.fun). The article notes that perp DEXs, with their frictionless trading and liquidity advantages, are the only sector potentially challenging stablecoin issuers' dominance. Additionally, the industry is shifting toward value transfer to token holders via mechanisms like buybacks, burns, and fee sharing. In 2025, $33.6 billion (58% of total fees) was returned to token holders, reinforcing tokens as economic ownership claims rather than mere governance tools. This trend is expected to accelerate in 2026, especially as falling interest rates reduce the appeal of spread-based revenue.

marsbit01/14 09:52

Who Controls the Revenue Lifeblood of the Crypto Industry?

marsbit01/14 09:52

Dialogue with Aster CEO: When CZ Knocks with 'Overwhelming Traffic', How Are We Preparing to Respond

Aster CEO Leonard discusses the project's explosive growth, challenges, and future vision in an exclusive interview. The conversation covers the recent "Human vs. AI" trading competition, where a key insight was that users inherently trust AI agents more for decentralized, trustless asset management due to their predictable, incentive-agnostic nature—a major focus for Aster's next development phase. The discussion then addresses the immense, sudden attention from CZ (Changpeng Zhao), who publicly disclosed holding over $2 million in Aster tokens. Leonard describes this a positive validation that brought both "sweet pressure" and a crash course in scaling under intense demand, ultimately forcing rapid improvements in UX and system stability. In the highly competitive Perp DEX arena, Leonard emphasizes that sustainable growth hinges on product excellence and building a closed-loop value flywheel: creating real value, having users pay for it, and effectively returning that value to token holders. Aster is also pioneering privacy with features like "Shield Mode," which offers private trading, extreme leverage, and a profit-sharing fee model. Its upcoming Aster Chain is framed not as a general-purpose ecosystem but as an "app-chain" meticulously built to optimize its core trading product's performance, transparency, and privacy features. Looking ahead to 2026, Leonard's key expectations are: greater adoption of on-chain privacy features, breakthroughs in AI-powered trustless asset management, and the expansion of perpetual contracts ("perps") to a much wider range of quantifiable assets, including prediction markets and novel indexes.

marsbit01/14 09:26

Dialogue with Aster CEO: When CZ Knocks with 'Overwhelming Traffic', How Are We Preparing to Respond