# Inflation Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Inflation", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Bitcoin's $78,000 Life-or-Death 48 Hours: $6.4 Billion Options Expiry, Nvidia Earnings, Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut Catalyze Market

Bitcoin faces a critical 48-hour period after retreating from above $81,000 following hotter-than-expected PCE inflation data, now stabilizing near $78,000. Five key catalysts are converging to influence price: 1) Economic data showing sticky inflation and resilient GDP growth reinforcing "higher-for-longer" rate expectations, which pressure risk assets like Bitcoin. 2) Approximately $6.4 billion in Bitcoin options expiring Friday on Deribit, with a "max pain" price near $78,000; settlement-related hedging flows could amplify volatility. 3) Nvidia's earnings report, serving as a barometer for AI/tech sentiment, to which Bitcoin's recent rally has been closely tied. 4) New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first major policy speech at Jackson Hole, where his tone on inflation and the labor market could significantly shift rate expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting. 5) Spot Bitcoin ETF flows, a clean signal of institutional demand, which saw strong inflows last week alongside declining exchange reserves, contributing to a short squeeze. Together, these factors make this window one of the most decisive for Bitcoin this year.

marsbitYesterday 06:00

Bitcoin's $78,000 Life-or-Death 48 Hours: $6.4 Billion Options Expiry, Nvidia Earnings, Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut Catalyze Market

marsbitYesterday 06:00

Wall Street Morning Post: Nvidia Revives AI Faith, Inflation Dashes Rate Cut Dreams, Food Crisis Darkens

Wall Street Morning Report: NVIDIA Revives AI Faith, Inflation Dashes Rate Cut Hopes, Food Crisis Concerns Intensify Markets lacked direction with the three major U.S. indices closing slightly lower, pressured by hotter-than-expected July PCE inflation data. The core PCE remained well above target, pushing market expectations for a September Fed rate hike higher and boosting Treasury yields. The dollar strengthened, while gold initially fell before stabilizing. Oil prices remained volatile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A significant and underappreciated inflation risk emerged from the food sector. Attacks on Black Sea ports, disrupted fertilizer supply chains, and extreme weather are severely impacting global grain supplies. HSBC warns the 2026/27 season could see the largest global grain deficit since 2006/07, with food prices accelerating. The main event was NVIDIA's stellar earnings after the bell, which reignited AI sector optimism. The company reported Q2 revenue that more than doubled year-over-year and, crucially, provided strong forward guidance, with the CFO stating real demand is nearly double current supply-constrained projections. CEO Jensen Huang declared AI has reached an "inflection point." This performance also countered the recent bearish narrative that AI would cannibalize traditional software. Companies like Salesforce and Okta posted strong results and saw shares surge, demonstrating that software firms effectively integrating AI into workflows are thriving. AI security firms like CrowdStrike also gained on heightened demand. In other movers, Meta rose after a major lawsuit settlement, while Apple gained ahead of its key product event. HP fell on weak PC shipment data. Key events to watch include the Jackson Hole symposium and earnings from companies like Marvell and Workday. The planned open-sourcing of China's GLM-5.3 model could further impact AI-related sectors.

marsbitYesterday 05:56

Wall Street Morning Post: Nvidia Revives AI Faith, Inflation Dashes Rate Cut Dreams, Food Crisis Darkens

marsbitYesterday 05:56

U.S. July PCE Price Index Rises 3.7% YoY, Giving Fed Room to Stand Pat

U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly stalled in July, while key inflation measures showed mild trends, providing more data support for the Federal Reserve's stance to keep interest rates unchanged. The Commerce Department reported that the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% month-over-month, with the year-over-year increase holding at 3.7%. The core PCE index, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.2% monthly, with the annual rate steady at 3.3%, meeting expectations. However, inflation-adjusted real personal consumption expenditure was flat for the month. The data indicates signs of cooling in the U.S. economy after strong expansion earlier in the summer. For Fed officials, this supports the argument for pausing rate hikes, although core PCE remains well above the central bank's 2% target, suggesting inflationary pressures have not fully subsided. Market focus now shifts to the annual Jackson Hole symposium, where investors await Fed Chair Wash's speech for clues on the policy path amid persistent inflation. Concurrently, a separate report showed the U.S. second-quarter GDP growth was unchanged from the initial estimate, but with details pointing to stronger consumer spending, adding some support to the economic outlook.

marsbit2 days ago 03:11

U.S. July PCE Price Index Rises 3.7% YoY, Giving Fed Room to Stand Pat

marsbit2 days ago 03:11

Inflation Has Not Improved. Will Warsh Support a Rate Hike on Friday?

U.S. inflation remained stubbornly high in July, with the PCE price index holding at a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, unchanged from June and still far above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The core PCE index also stayed flat at 3.3%. While inflation did not worsen, the fact that it did not improve either has increased market expectations for further interest rate hikes. Futures pricing now indicates a higher probability of a rate increase in September and fully prices in one hike by year-end. The economic backdrop is mixed. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised to 1.5%, but underlying components like consumer spending and business investment were robust. However, inflation-adjusted consumer spending stalled in July, and real incomes have barely grown over the past year, eroding purchasing power. The data provides arguments for both sides of the policy debate. The "wait-and-see" camp points to the lack of acceleration in inflation and upcoming methodological changes that may lower reported figures. The "pro-hike" camp highlights that inflation remains hotter than forecasts, sticky services prices, rising diesel and chip costs, and renewed trade tensions with Canada. All eyes are now on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole for clarity on his policy stance. With inflation persistently above target for over five years and midterm elections approaching where prices are a key issue, the pressure for decisive action is mounting. The speech carries significant two-way risk for markets.

marsbit2 days ago 02:21

Inflation Has Not Improved. Will Warsh Support a Rate Hike on Friday?

marsbit2 days ago 02:21

US Stock Market Trends (Aug 27): PCE Exceeds Expectations, Pressures Broader Market; Nvidia Rises 4% After-Hours, Nasdaq Futures Up 1%

U.S. Market Trends (Aug 27): PCE Data Weighs on Indices, Nvidia Rises 4% After-Hours, Nasdaq Futures Up 1% U.S. stocks closed slightly lower on Wednesday amid narrow trading. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all edged down, ending the Dow's two-day winning streak. The key pressure came from July's PCE inflation data, which showed a 3.7% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations. While the core PCE met forecasts at 3.3%, the hot headline number boosted Treasury yields and the dollar, dampening hopes for imminent Fed rate cuts. Gold fell below $4,600/oz. Oil prices continued to weaken despite mixed geopolitical signals. The market's real focus was after the close. Nvidia reported Q2 revenue of $96.2 billion, beating estimates, guided for current-quarter revenue to surpass $100 billion for the first time, and projected 70% revenue growth for the next fiscal year. Its shares rose approximately 4% after-hours, lifting Nasdaq futures by about 1%. Amazon's announcement to deploy an additional 2 million GPUs further validated the data center demand narrative for Nvidia. In other sectors, chip stocks like Western Digital and Arm gained. Among the "Magnificent Seven," moves were mixed. Salesforce surged on strong guidance and an expanded partnership with Anthropic. Meta settled a youth addiction case with 29 U.S. states for up to $18 billion, a figure seen as favorable compared to earlier fears. Bitcoin retreated from recent highs, while industrial metals like copper extended their rally. The core market tension remains between inflation concerns pressuring the broader market and strong AI earnings providing sector-specific momentum, setting the tone for early September trading.

marsbit2 days ago 01:26

US Stock Market Trends (Aug 27): PCE Exceeds Expectations, Pressures Broader Market; Nvidia Rises 4% After-Hours, Nasdaq Futures Up 1%

marsbit2 days ago 01:26

IOSG: U.S. Bonds, AI, and Inflation Can't All Be Had. Which Side Should BTC Bet On?

**Title: IOSG: Can't Have It All – Treasury Bonds, AI, and Inflation. Where Should BTC Bet?** **Core Thesis:** Washington is likely to prioritize stabilizing the Treasury market and sustaining the AI investment cycle, accepting higher inflation for longer as the trade-off. This creates sustained tailwinds for both gold and Bitcoin by injecting liquidity and shifting duration risk away from private balance sheets. **Key Issue:** The critical macro price is no longer the Fed funds rate, but the yield investors demand to hold long-term US Treasuries. Recent surges in 10-year and 30-year yields stem from a combination of persistent inflation risks, heavy fiscal supply, thinning demand for duration, and new competition for capital from massive AI infrastructure investments. **The Trilemma:** The US faces a difficult choice between controlling inflation, maintaining Treasury market stability, and fostering the AI growth cycle. Political pressure suggests inflation control is the most likely sacrifice. **Treasury's Response:** Measures by Treasury Secretary Besant focus on defending the bond market: supporting the Yen to prevent forced Japanese Treasury sales, increasing long-end liquidity via repos (effectively shortening government debt maturity), and a potential shift toward more short-term bill issuance. This could generate significant liquidity, reigniting "currency debasement" trades. **Gold's Role:** Gold's ~90% surge since mid-2024 is not just an inflation hedge but a bet on monetary debasement as a politically viable path out of the debt cycle, driven by declining dollar trust. **Bitcoin's Positioning:** Bitcoin has historically failed to correlate with gold during "debasement" rallies. However, its recent strong performance alongside Treasury's liquidity actions suggests the market may be treating it as a "stealth QE" trade—a scenario where crypto assets typically thrive amid expanding global liquidity. For BTC to firmly join the "debasement hedge" category, this correlation needs to persist. **Conclusion & Risks:** The framework suggests that preserving market stability and the AI cycle will likely mean shorter debt maturity,常态化 liquidity backstops, and tolerance for higher inflation—favorable for gold and BTC. This outlook would be undermined if inflation falls toward 2%, a credible fiscal path emerges, AI becomes self-funding, or private demand absorbs debt without higher term premiums. The key question is which corner of the trilemma breaks first; accelerated "duration transfer" by the Treasury would mean a longer tailwind for Bitcoin.

marsbit2 days ago 00:06

IOSG: U.S. Bonds, AI, and Inflation Can't All Be Had. Which Side Should BTC Bet On?

marsbit2 days ago 00:06

Anthony Pompliano: Bitcoin Has No Price Ceiling

Anthony Pompliano, founder of ProCap Financial, argues Bitcoin has no price ceiling because the US dollar has no bottom. He cites the recent US Treasury decision to double the maximum size of its long-term bond buyback operations to $4 billion as evidence the government will continue injecting money into the financial system, increasing the money supply and acting as a short-term catalyst for Bitcoin's price. Pompliano also states that the proliferation of AI makes computing power and knowledge more accessible, which will increase investor appreciation for scarce assets like Bitcoin. He identifies excessive government spending by both major US political parties as a core economic problem, forcing authorities to intervene in debt markets. Previously, Pompliano suggested a 40% Bitcoin correction from its highs could set the stage for a new record, with a stronger pullback potentially leading to a more powerful subsequent rally due to a "slingshot effect."

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 20:31

Anthony Pompliano: Bitcoin Has No Price Ceiling

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 20:31

Stubborn Inflation Strikes Again, The Fed Faces Stagflation Trap

"Stubborn" inflation is once again striking, with the Federal Reserve facing a stagflation trap. The latest PCE price index report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shows persistent inflation. Compared to June, it rose 0.2%, and year-over-year it increased by approximately 3.7%, remaining above the Fed's 2% target. The core PCE index, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.2%. While Americans' wages increased, they did not spend the extra money, with the personal savings rate at 3.0%. Nigel Green, CEO of Devere Group, warns that the U.S. economy is showing signs of stagflation, combining slowing growth with persistent inflation. He argues this pressures the Fed, which cannot simultaneously fight inflation with rate hikes and support growth with rate cuts, likely leading to rates being held steady—a sign, in his view, that the Fed is running out of good options. Markets showed little reaction to the PCE data. Major Wall Street indices were positive at the open, while gold and silver prices saw moderate declines. Bitcoin's price also dipped slightly, trading around $77,600 after recently surpassing $81,000. Market watchers will now focus on upcoming events, including new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first speech at the Jackson Hole summit, key employment data, and the FOMC's September meeting decision.

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 20:26

Stubborn Inflation Strikes Again, The Fed Faces Stagflation Trap

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 20:26

A Major Altcoin Prepares for a Sharp Increase in Token Burn

Two governance proposals within the Solana ($SOL) ecosystem, SIMD-550 and SIMD-553, could significantly alter the network's token supply dynamics in coming years. According to 21Shares, if implemented together, they could reduce the total $SOL issuance by approximately $1.4-1.5 billion over a six-year period. The SIMD-550 proposal aims to double Solana's annual inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%. If adopted, the network's long-term goal of reaching a final inflation rate of 1.5% would be achieved around the first half of 2029, instead of roughly 2032. However, this faster reduction in issuance would also lower staking yields, potentially to around 2.25% by the third year. The SIMD-553 proposal, already approved and integrated into the codebase, introduces a new fee mechanism for computational units consumed in transactions. Currently, about 600-800 $SOL are burned daily on Solana. With SIMD-553, this is estimated to surge to between 7,500 and 9,000 $SOL per day—a roughly tenfold increase in the burn rate. Combined, these measures—faster inflation reduction and dramatically increased token burning—could lead to the projected multi-billion dollar decrease in net token supply. However, uncertainties remain: SIMD-550 is still subject to final voting, and the actual impact of SIMD-553 will depend on the specific fee structure for validators.

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 17:56

A Major Altcoin Prepares for a Sharp Increase in Token Burn

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 17:56

A Crucial Event is Approaching, Pay Attention to Friday: This Could Be the Fed's Most Important Event This Year

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver one of his most significant speeches this week at the Jackson Hole symposium. Markets and Fed officials are focused on a fundamental question: Is persistently high U.S. inflation due to temporary shocks like tariffs and the war with Iran, or is the economy still too strong from a demand perspective? The answer could determine whether the Fed will raise interest rates in the coming period. Investors will scrutinize Warsh's Friday speech for clues about his economic assessment and the conditions under which he might tighten monetary policy. The outlook is interpreted through two scenarios. One suggests inflation has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over a year due to temporary shocks and may recede spontaneously. The other warns these events mask deeper economic imbalances, where strong demand allows companies to keep raising prices, potentially necessitating rate hikes. While recent softer inflation data has eased pressure for a September rate hike, concerns remain that the Iran war, new tariffs, and a surge in AI investment could exert lasting upward pressure on prices. Divisions within the Fed are growing, with some officials pushing for further tightening, citing robust consumer spending and labor demand, while others believe price pressures may ease on their own. A notable feature of Warsh's tenure has been his reduced guidance to markets, arguing central bankers talk too much. However, this reluctance to share his own views may be making it harder to build consensus, as evidenced by three dissenting votes for a rate hike last month—the highest in nearly a decade. Market reactions are being closely watched. Following the July meeting, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note rose to its highest level since 2007, suggesting investors believe the Fed might tolerate slightly higher near-term inflation but could require more significant future rate increases. Therefore, the Jackson Hole speech is crucial not only for near-term rate expectations but also for understanding how Fed policy communication will be shaped under Warsh's leadership.

cryptonews.ru2 days ago 16:46

A Crucial Event is Approaching, Pay Attention to Friday: This Could Be the Fed's Most Important Event This Year