伊朗“突袭”约旦美军基地;油价飙升近4%,比特币涨势面临威胁

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2026-07-29Last updated on 2026-07-29

Abstract

伊朗于7月28日对美国在约旦的军事基地发动导弹袭击,称此举是对美国“非法恶意行为”的回应。美国中央司令部称所有导弹均被拦截,无人员伤亡。此次袭击打破了自特朗普总统暂停对伊进攻性打击以来的短暂平静。 袭击发生后,国际油价应声上涨,WTI原油和布伦特原油价格均飙升近4%。股市期货亦小幅上升,市场重新消化中东地缘政治风险。 比特币价格在冲突升级后承压,从约65,200美元跌至63,600-63,800美元区间。尽管今年比特币有时表现出与传统风险资产不同的韧性,但此次袭击直接挑战了此前支撑市场平静的“停火”预期。近期模式显示,比特币常在每次冲突升级后迅速收复失地,但在下一次升级时再次面临抛压。

美国中央司令部在声明中表示,当地时间7月28日下午5点45分,伊斯兰革命卫队从伊朗境内发射了多枚弹道导弹,意图对中东美军发动“突袭”;导弹瞄准了约旦穆瓦法克·萨勒蒂空军基地附近的美军阵地。司令部报告称,“爱国者”防空系统拦截了所有来袭导弹,没有造成人员伤亡。

伊朗军方宣称对此次袭击负责,称这是对美方被其认定为针对伊朗利益的“非法和恶意行为”的回应。此次袭击是自特朗普总统几天前为给与德黑兰的外交一个机会而暂停对伊进攻性打击以来,伊朗弹道导弹首次袭击该地区的美军基地,从而打破了自2月28日开始的这场战争曾出现的短暂平静。

鉴于伊朗7月18日对约旦阿兹拉克空军基地的袭击已造成两名美军士兵死亡,另一名仍失踪——这是伴随这场长达五个月的冲突的数次紧张局势升级之一,此次袭击使得先前的停火迹象受到考验。约旦军方表示,他们此次也击落了一部分飞向其领土的来袭弹药,并未在本国领土内造成破坏或人员伤亡。

石油期货和股市大幅上涨

金融市场在几小时内做出反应:西德克萨斯中质原油价格上涨3.95%,至每桶83.08美元,而作为全球基准的布伦特原油价格上涨3.86%,至每桶87.34美元。道琼斯指数期货上涨63点,涨幅0.12%,至53,007点,而标准普尔500指数期货上涨26点,纳斯达克100指数期货上涨近133点,因交易员已将中东风险重燃计入价格。

此次反弹部分抵消了仅仅几天前发生的急剧反向变动。在特朗普政府首次发出暂停信号后,油价曾暴跌多达8%,布伦特原油价格从每桶100美元以上跌至约87美元,当时各方调停人正就霍尔木兹海峡问题进行谈判。7月28日的袭击在几小时内就抹去了这部分缓解幅度的很大一部分——对于追踪这场自2月以来“打打停停”冲突节奏的交易员来说,这种模式已变得司空见惯。

基于“停火”的比特币反弹面临下一轮考验

加密货币市场一直与这一周期同步,截至7月27日(当时布伦特原油价格暴跌至87美元),比特币已回升至约65,200美元,并在期货交易开始之初短暂触及65,600美元。次日,这一反弹转为下跌:到7月28日傍晚袭击发生前,比特币已跌至约64,000美元,随后在导弹袭击消息传开后,进一步下跌至63,600至63,800美元区间。

此前Bitcoin.com News曾报道,比特币在7月份冲突先前升级期间曾坚守在63,000美元附近——这是一种趋势的一部分,即网络在每次冲突升级后的几天内反复收复失地,却在下一次升级时再次失去部分涨幅。

尽管如此,今年以来,BTC在不同时期曾显示出与纯冲突风险资产行为脱钩的迹象,即使在油价和股价剧烈波动时也能保持支撑(与同期以太坊等其他资产出现的更为剧烈和持续的抛售不同)。然而,7月28日的袭击是对过去一周平静气氛背后“停火”叙事的最直接挑战。

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Related Questions

Q伊朗在约旦对美国基地发动的袭击中,美军方面是否有人员伤亡?

A根据美国中央司令部的声明,所有来袭导弹均被“爱国者”防空系统拦截,因此袭击没有造成人员伤亡。

Q伊朗此次发动袭击的理由是什么?

A伊朗军方声称此次袭击是为了回应他们所称的美国针对伊朗利益的“非法和恶意行为”。

Q此次袭击事件对国际油价造成了什么影响?

A袭击事件导致WTI原油价格上涨3.95%,至每桶83.08美元;作为全球基准的布伦特原油价格上涨3.86%,至每桶87.34美元。

Q此次地缘政治事件发生后,比特币的价格如何变化?

A在袭击消息传播后,比特币价格从袭击前的大约64,000美元继续下跌,进入63,600至63,800美元的价格区间。

Q文章指出比特币价格在过去一段时间内表现出何种模式?

A比特币价格呈现出一种反复的模式:在每次地缘冲突升级后几天内收复失地,但在下一次升级时又会失去部分涨幅。

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