现在的市场究竟是买主流？买山寨？还是买土狗？

币界网Published on 2024-08-13Last updated on 2024-08-13

币界网报道：

2024 是加密行业迈向成熟合规里程碑式的一年，BTC 与 ETH 的现货 ETF 相继在美国股市推出，意味着加密行业踏入了世界主流市场，带来了新的持有者群体，各种传统金融行业的大型基金将逐步成为加密市场的庄家。

同时鉴于合规的因素，行业在迈入成熟阶段也多了越来越多的限制，包括许多 POS 公链代币是否是未注册证券的疑虑，以及巨头交易所皆牵涉到违法洗钱等等争议，项目方在创办项目的自由度上多了几层枷锁。

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另一方面，加密市场也进入了越来越极端的两面，第一面是主流币们的逐步稳定上涨，BTC受到圈外资本的追逐，在对比总体加密货币占有率上一路向上。尽管 ETH 在 ETF 推出后不断下跌为人诟病，但仍是圈内认同度最高的资产之一。SOL 则是本轮的超级新星，在历经 FTX 倒台后进行了一大批筹码换手，因此也成为了涨幅最为亮点的主流币。

上一轮 2021 牛市表现最佳的山寨币们则是惨不忍睹，包括各种 L1 ETH Killer 以及 Defi 代币，对比 2024 年初大多都是呈现跌幅状态。除了上一轮的山寨币外，本轮的山寨币表现也同样萎靡，以币安 2024 上新的代币表现来看，年初至今 -50％ 腰斩的币种不胜枚举。以往币安新币都是散户玩家们博取超额收益的重点关注，如今却成为了玩家们的重灾区。

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而在光谱的另一面，散户们的主战场从功能技术吹得天花乱坠的山寨币们转移到可爱猫猫狗狗头像的迷因币上，不用研究项目技术、代币模型、投资背景或代币解锁等等。取而代之的技能则是加入社区，观察情绪，研究链上数据等等技能。

新进玩家们的投资思维更看重的是注意力经济，就如同 Web 2 正在进行的互联网范式转变，从硬核的长文转移到各种博人眼球的短视频，对应 Web 3 就是山寨币与迷因币的关系。

估值与筹码分布

山寨币表现不佳的另一大主因是源自错误的估值与浮报的融资金额。许多所谓的「天王级」项目在融资阶段便获得了几十亿美元的天价估值。尽管有真实创新技术，但也早在一级市场融资阶段便已完成价值发现，待上线交易所后变成「天亡级」项目，代币价格不断下跌。而浮报融资金额更是许多垃圾山寨币的共同点，机构与项目方沆瀣一气，通过新闻稿透露出夸张的融资金额，实际上并没有真实的资金投入，目的只是为了通过消息让散户关注。

而老一轮的山寨币面临的则是解锁周期到来带来的源源不断的抛压，许多上一轮表现良好的代币通过高 FDV 低 MC 的方式拉盘，而如今随着解锁日期的接近，滑梯式的走势是唯一宿命。

相较之下，迷因币通常没有风险投资，不用担心后续的解锁抛压，加上迷因币起点低并不存在错误估值。但在筹码分布上，迷因币与山寨币并无不同，都存在着许多操盘的痕迹，差别仅在于操盘是由风投机构或是 KOL 主导。但就难易度上来说，迷因币散户更容易在低价阶段取得筹码。

买山寨买meme?

本轮的山寨币如此颓势的另一个主因是无法推出能够获得新进用户流量的新概念。上一轮牛市从 Defi → NFT → GameFi 全都是带给耳目一新的全新思维，简单但又充满新意，散户不仅看得懂、玩得明白、也用得到。而这一轮兴起的概念从 RWA → Depin → AI 都是充斥着高大上的各种技术概念，但基本上散户玩家根本用不上，因此便难以培养社区共识。

总结来说，我个人的投资思维也逐渐从山寨币拥护者转向只关注主流币 BTC/ETH/SOL 与迷因币。缺乏用户是各种山寨币的最大痛点，新公链一个接着一个，模组化的基建项目也越来越多，但是在没有用户基础的情况下，这些项目基本都是死亡螺旋。

所以对于不想折腾的散户来说，买点以太、SOL就行了，小资金去冲冲土狗搏一搏收益。

后期会给大家带来其他赛道的龙头项目分析。感兴趣的可以点个关注。我也会不定期整理一些前沿资询和项目点评，欢迎各位志同道合的币圈人一起来探索。有问题可以评论提问或者私

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