Bernstein Analysis: Samsung's HBM4 Accelerates Volume, Q3 Revenue May Overtake SK Hynix
South Korea’s July memory export data, serving as an early indicator for HBM business in Q3, shows overall HBM demand remains robust. While total exports to Taiwan and Malaysia declined 32% month-on-month from June’s peak—largely due to seasonality—they were still up 13% compared to April and rose 64% year-on-year.
However, a divergence emerged between Samsung and SK Hynix. Samsung’s exports from Chungcheongnam-do (a proxy for its HBM shipments) surged, reaching $2.2 billion in July, up 122% from April. Based on regression analysis, Bernstein estimates Samsung’s Q3 HBM revenue could hit around $12 billion, roughly 30% above its prior forecast, driven by a rapid ramp in higher-value HBM4. The unit value of Samsung’s exports has doubled since April, signaling a shift toward HBM4, which carries a significantly higher price.
In contrast, exports linked to SK Hynix from Chungcheongbuk-do and Icheon fell 28% month-on-month and 27% versus April. Bernstein’s base model suggests SK Hynix’s Q3 HBM revenue could drop to about $5.6 billion, though this could rebound to $12 billion if shipments concentrate later in the quarter as historically seen. The weakness may relate to potential delays in HBM4 shipments for Nvidia’s Rubin platform.
Notably, HBM pricing is decoupling from general DRAM, with HBM4 mix driving average selling prices rather than broad-based hikes. Exports to Malaysia also surged, possibly linked to Intel’s EMIB packaging facilities, though the exact drivers remain unclear.
While July data reinforces Samsung’s accelerating momentum in HBM4, it is insufficient to confirm a full-year market share reversal. Key factors to watch are Samsung’s August-September export performance, whether SK Hynix recovers lost ground, and upcoming 2027 HBM contract pricing negotiations.
marsbit2 days ago 09:25