# Demand Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Demand", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Wang Chuan: After Investing in Storage Stocks and Seeing a Thirty-Fold Return, How to Remain Unanxious (Part 7) - A Quarter-Century Cycle

Wang Chuan: Reflections on Investment Anxiety and Market Cycles After Observing a 30x Gain in a Storage Stock (Part 7) – A Quarter-Century Cycle This article examines the cyclical nature and inherent risks in technology hardware investments, using the storage and semiconductor sectors as examples. It criticizes the misleading practice of "annualized" Net Dollar Retention (NDR) rates, where short-term growth is extrapolated unrealistically. A key concept explored is "reflexivity" – demand driven by panic, exploration, and liquidity during market booms, which can vanish just as quickly when conditions reverse. This reflexivity exists both in product demand and among speculative stock buyers, creating powerful feedback loops that inflate prices during upturns and exacerbate crashes during downturns. The author highlights a major risk for hardware sectors: unlike assets with defined cycles (e.g., Bitcoin's halving), there's no guarantee of a swift recovery post-crash. Companies like Micron, Intel, and Cisco took roughly a quarter-century to surpass their 2000 highs, enduring drawdowns exceeding 80%. This is attributed to the "bullwhip effect" in supply chains, where demand collapses instantly but过剩产能 persists, and a migration of narrative-driven capital. High-valuation stories吸引 speculative funds during growth phases, but these funds quickly depart for the next hot narrative once growth slows, leaving behind stronger companies with much lower valuations. The piece warns of dangerous mental models formed during bull markets: 1) equating current strong demand with perpetual high growth, and 2) believing that making fast, large profits is easy. Citing巴菲特, the author notes that easy money undermines rationality, likening speculators to Cinderella at a ball with a clock that has no hands. The current phase presents an asymmetric risk-reward scenario: potential for further gains exists, but the downside risk is an 80%+ drawdown and a multi-decade wait for breakeven, which reflexive speculators cannot tolerate. The hypothetical investor "老王" (Lao Wang), who achieved a 30x return, is used to illustrate potential pitfalls. Leverage could lead to a wipeout during a sharp correction. Even without leverage, ingrained beliefs in easy money would likely lead him to double down after losses, expecting a quick rebound. Instead, he might face a protracted decline, depleting his resources through frantic trading as the high-growth narrative fades. The conclusion references Schopenhauer, comparing those who have seen multiple market cycles to an audience seeing the same magic trick repeatedly—once the illusion is understood, its power is gone.

marsbit06/09 02:16

Wang Chuan: After Investing in Storage Stocks and Seeing a Thirty-Fold Return, How to Remain Unanxious (Part 7) - A Quarter-Century Cycle

marsbit06/09 02:16

It Took Me a Year to See the Bitter Truth About Agent Payments

After a year building infrastructure for the Agent economy, engaging with major players like Stripe, Visa, and Coinbase, the author shares a sobering analysis of the current state of Agent payments. The core finding is a stark lack of genuine, immediate demand across most envisioned use cases. The article breaks down four key market segments: 1. **Agent-to-Merchant (Consumer Shopping):** For most product categories (e.g., clothing, electronics), conversational AI shopping is a step backwards from visual e-commerce interfaces. While agents excel at understanding needs, they can't replace side-by-side product comparison. Real merchant interest is defensive "Agent Engine Optimization," not driven by current customer demand. Potential exists for high-frequency, low-decision purchases (like food delivery) or navigating complex store UIs, but these require massive B2C distribution channels dominated by giants like Amazon. 2. **Agent-to-API (Developer Services):** Developers already have subscriptions and billing relationships for APIs (compute, data). Prepaid balances solve micro-payment issues for low transaction volumes. A deeper structural problem is that major SaaS vendors' business models rely on enterprise contracts, resisting granular pay-per-call pricing. While protocols like MPP and x402 serve the long tail of niche services, this market is small and developers are historically low-willingness-to-pay. 3. **Agent-to-Agent:** This remains largely theoretical with minimal transaction volume. While it represents a long-term bet on a fundamentally new transaction infrastructure (sub-second, micro-penny to million-dollar, multi-party settlements), it does not constitute a present market. 4. **Agent-to-Finance:** This is the only category with existing, paying demand. Integrating AI into financial workflows (trading, portfolio management) is a natural evolution and enables new capabilities like autonomous rebalancing. However, competition favors established, regulated institutions. The "real problem" is not moving money between agents, but the broader challenge of **coordination**—orchestrating work between agents and humans, verifying outcomes, and settling results. Payment is just one component of settlement, which is itself part of coordination. Companies that solve the coordination layer will subsume payment, not the other way around. While well-funded incumbents build defensively for a long-term future, startups must find where the market is today—which, for the author's team, lies outside these four categories in an area of real, growing, and underserved activity.

marsbit06/06 10:19

It Took Me a Year to See the Bitter Truth About Agent Payments

marsbit06/06 10:19

Bitcoin Demand Falls At Fastest Pace Since LUNA Collapse: Data

On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin's total demand has sharply declined over the past month, contracting at its fastest rate since the collapse of the Terra/LUNA ecosystem in May 2022. This "demand" metric, tracking the combined flow of Bitcoin into spot and derivatives markets, has recently plummeted to a 30-day negative change of 501,000 BTC. Analysts note the recent price surge in April and early May was driven solely by speculative futures demand, while spot demand contracted—a pattern historically unsustainable for rallies. With both spot and futures demand now shrinking, the pace of contraction echoes the post-LUNA collapse period. Concurrently, Bitcoin's price has dropped to around $63,200, its lowest level since February.

bitcoinist06/05 10:01

Bitcoin Demand Falls At Fastest Pace Since LUNA Collapse: Data

bitcoinist06/05 10:01

Nvidia Rack Disassembly Reveals New Growth Opportunity, MLCC Value Surges 182%

Supply bottlenecks in AI infrastructure have expanded to fundamental hardware components like multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs), crucial for stabilizing power and filtering noise in AI servers. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley highlight MLCCs as entering a historic "volume-price dual increase" supercycle driven by AI. Goldman forecasts the AI server MLCC market to surge over fourfold from ~$1.4B in FY2025 to ~$5.8B in FY2030, a 34% CAGR. The core driver is a structural supply-demand imbalance. While AI server demand is projected to grow ~4.3x by 2030, industry capacity expands at only ~10% annually, constrained by internal production of equipment and materials. This is compounded by strong demand from electric vehicles. The shortage is evident, with lead times for high-end MLCCs exceeding 20 weeks. The price cycle has officially begun. Japanese leaders Murata and Taiyo Yuden have raised prices by 15-35% for AI server and automotive MLCCs since April, citing material costs. Japan's April export data confirms the trend, with MLCC export value up 28% year-over-year. Profit leverage is significant: Goldman estimates a mere 5% price increase could boost Murata's FY2027 operating profit by ~13% and Taiyo Yuden's by up to 37%. Morgan Stanley's teardown of Nvidia's upcoming Vera Rubin AI rack reveals another catalyst: the MLCC value per rack has skyrocketed 182% from the previous generation to ~$4,320, highlighting the component's growing importance. With demand set to massively outstrip constrained supply, and price increases just starting, analysts position MLCCs at the beginning of a major, prolonged upcycle.

marsbit06/01 09:06

Nvidia Rack Disassembly Reveals New Growth Opportunity, MLCC Value Surges 182%

marsbit06/01 09:06

Wang Chuan: When the Neighbor Old Wang Made 30x on Memory Stocks, How to Avoid Anxiety (Part Six) - The Trap of Commoditized Goods

Wang Chuan: When the Neighbor Lao Wang Made 30x on Storage Stocks, How to Stay Anxiety-Free (Part 6) - The Trap of Commoditized Goods. This essay uses historical and current examples to analyze the cyclical and high-risk nature of the data storage industry. It begins with the 1990s rise and dramatic fall of Iomega, whose stock soared over 160x in 18 months before collapsing 97% from its peak, illustrating the fleeting success of storage "meme stocks." The core problem is that storage products, like DRAM and flash memory, are highly commoditized. This leads to extreme volatility: prices have plummeted over 80% multiple times, and company stocks often crash 95% or go bankrupt. The industry's dynamic is defined by "elastic demand facing heavy-asset, long-cycle, rigid supply." When demand spikes and supply is fixed, prices skyrocket, as seen recently with AI-driven demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). Companies like Sandisk and Micron have reported massive revenue and gross margin jumps (e.g., Sandisk's gross margin rising from 22.5% to 78.3%) despite minimal increases in production volume. However, these high margins are self-defeating. They incentivize massive new capacity investments (hundreds of billions planned from 2026), with supply expected to surge by late 2027. Once new supply meets demand, prices and profits will crash, potentially leading to a scenario where "selling more results in earning less." The article debunks the safety of long-term supply agreements, comparing them to fragile non-aggression pacts easily broken when market conditions shift. It warns that when an industry is highly profitable but trades at low P/E ratios, the risk is greatest, as plummeting prices quickly erase those earnings. Multiple asymmetric risks loom, including economic recession, reduced AI spending, faster-than-expected capacity expansion (especially from Chinese firms), and technological innovations that reduce memory requirements. In conclusion, the storage sector is a cyclical trap where periods of euphoric profits are often precursors to devastating downturns, luring unprepared investors into a "wealth incinerator."

marsbit06/01 07:13

Wang Chuan: When the Neighbor Old Wang Made 30x on Memory Stocks, How to Avoid Anxiety (Part Six) - The Trap of Commoditized Goods

marsbit06/01 07:13

Is a Super IPO Wave Coming? Will It Drain and Crash the U.S. Stock Market?

The article discusses concerns about a potential "super IPO wave" hitting the U.S. stock market, with major companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic preparing to go public. While these large IPOs could collectively raise hundreds of billions, raising fears of a market "blood drain," analysis suggests the impact may be limited. Key points include: * Historical data shows IPO waves often coincide with strong market returns, as they typically occur during periods of high investor demand. * Model estimates suggest even the largest IPOs might only cause a market dip of around 1%. They are more likely to trigger a routine market pullback rather than end a bull market. * The current demand side remains supportive due to high household cash balances, strong corporate earnings growth, continued stock fund inflows, and robust share buyback announcements. * The main risk lies in concentrated investor positions, particularly in large-cap tech stocks, which are at elevated levels. A shift in funds towards new issuances could pressure these crowded sectors. * Recent fund flows show strength concentrated in U.S. and tech stocks, while other regions like Europe and Japan are experiencing outflows. The conclusion is that the IPO wave itself is unlikely to crash the market unless it coincides with a weakening in underlying demand factors like earnings or fund inflows into U.S. equities. The focus should be on whether demand can continue to absorb the new supply.

marsbit05/26 01:52

Is a Super IPO Wave Coming? Will It Drain and Crash the U.S. Stock Market?

marsbit05/26 01:52

With Ozak AI Now Above $7 Million Raised, Analysts Warn That Remaining Presale Allocation Could Shrink Rapidly as Late Buyers Rush To Secure Positions.

Ozak AI is experiencing significant presale momentum, having raised over $7 million across its phases. Currently in its 7th presale stage priced at $0.014, analysts warn the remaining allocation is shrinking rapidly as late buyers rush to secure tokens before the price increases and it lists on major exchanges with a target of $1. Demand is driven by its advanced AI technology, which uses specialized multi-agent systems for real-time blockchain data analysis, predictive tools, and personalized AI agents. Early investors have seen substantial returns, with gains up to 1300%. The project is also strengthening its ecosystem through key partnerships. With limited supply and high demand, analysts suggest the current presale offers a final opportunity for investors before potential significant price appreciation post-listing.

TheNewsCrypto05/23 08:02

With Ozak AI Now Above $7 Million Raised, Analysts Warn That Remaining Presale Allocation Could Shrink Rapidly as Late Buyers Rush To Secure Positions.

TheNewsCrypto05/23 08:02

Bitcoin Retail Demand Turns Positive Again: Is The Crowd Coming Back?

Bitcoin retail demand has turned positive again, with its 30-day change surging to +4.38% after plunging into negative territory in March. This metric tracks transaction activity for transfers under $10,000, indicating renewed interest from small-scale investors. While this marks a significant improvement from last month's low of -8.2%, overall retail transaction volume remains below February levels. Concurrently, the recent price recovery has improved the situation for short-term holders (STHs), with the percentage of their supply in loss dropping to 38%. Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,700. The key question is whether this positive shift in retail sentiment will continue and lead to a full-scale return of small investors.

bitcoinist05/13 19:36

Bitcoin Retail Demand Turns Positive Again: Is The Crowd Coming Back?

bitcoinist05/13 19:36

Smart Money Is Moving Back Into Bitcoin — What’s Driving The Surge?

Bitcoin and crypto investment products recorded a significant $857.9 million in net inflows for the week ending May 11, marking the sixth consecutive week of positive flows and the strongest weekly total since late April, according to CoinShares. This surge, a sevenfold increase over the prior week, is seen as a potential structural reset in institutional demand. Bitcoin products attracted the majority at $706.1 million, but inflows were broad-based, with Ethereum, Solana, and XRP products also seeing substantial investments. Short-Bitcoin products experienced their largest outflow of 2026, indicating a reversal of bearish bets. Geographically, the United States led with $776.6 million in inflows, with European markets like Germany and Switzerland also contributing steady participation. Analysts attribute Bitcoin's climb above $80,000 to ETF inflows, corporate treasury buying, and regulatory optimism around stablecoin legislation. The sustained inflow streak presents a pivotal shift, challenging traditional allocators to reconsider the asset class.

bitcoinist05/13 17:03

Smart Money Is Moving Back Into Bitcoin — What’s Driving The Surge?

bitcoinist05/13 17:03

NVIDIA Begins Adding Soap to the Bubble

NVIDIA is taking on a dual role: not just as a leading chip supplier, but as a massive capital allocator across the entire AI supply chain. In 2026, the company has committed over $40 billion in investments within five months, targeting everything from optical fiber manufacturing and data center operations to foundational AI model development. This investment spree, described as a systematic "sprinkler" approach, primarily funds companies that are major buyers of NVIDIA's own GPUs. Critics, including analysts from Goldman Sachs, label this a "circular revenue" loop—comparable to a supplier financing a customer to buy more of its products. A prominent example is NVIDIA's investment in OpenAI, which is expected to generate around $13 billion in revenue for NVIDIA, much of which may be reinvested back into OpenAI. While CEO Jensen Huang dismisses the "circular financing" critique as "absurd," arguing the investments are confidence votes in long-term generational shifts, some analysts express discomfort. They note that while investments in critical supply chain components like optics are strategically sound, funding new cloud providers like CoreWeave feels like "pre-paying for your own GPUs." The strategy carries significant risks. If the AI investment cycle turns, the market may question how much demand is genuine versus artificially sustained by NVIDIA's own balance sheet. Despite posting record-breaking earnings—$215.9 billion in annual revenue and $120 billion in net profit for FY2026—NVIDIA's stock fell after its report, signaling that "beating expectations" may no longer be enough to assure investors about the duration of the AI spending boom. The article concludes that while a bubble isn't necessarily a fraud, NVIDIA's actions resemble adding soap to a bubble—making it appear more robust and durable. This creates a complex scenario requiring extreme冷静 from investors to distinguish between real structural growth and financial engineering.

marsbit05/12 07:29