Prediction Market Traders Increase Odds of Fed Rate Hike
Prediction market traders have raised the odds of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike at its July meeting. On Polymarket, the probability of rates remaining unchanged dropped to 73.8%, while chances for a 25 basis point increase rose to 26.4%, with total trading volume reaching $109 million. Kalshi showed a similar split: 72.9% for no change and 27.6% for a hike, with $46.2 million in volume. The Fed's FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, with the current target rate at 3.5–3.75%. While a majority still expects no change, about a third of market participants anticipate an increase to 3.75-4%.
This shift in expectations is attributed not only to persistent inflation but also to rising oil prices and tensions in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel last week before retreating. However, June's Consumer Price Index data, showing a monthly decline of 0.4% and a yearly inflation slowdown to 3.5%, provides an argument for the Fed to pause. Analysts note that the Fed's upcoming decision is being viewed as less predictable than usual.
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