Can Open USD Support Stripe's Ambitions?

marsbit发布于2026-07-07更新于2026-07-07

文章摘要

Can Open USD support Stripe's ambition? The article argues that OUSD represents a pivotal strategic move for Stripe, shifting its narrative from being a superior payments API company to becoming a "money movement network." Unlike simply facilitating payments, this new model aims to organize and define the settlement layer, default assets, and economic distribution rules for future commerce. The analysis highlights OUSD's role in giving Stripe a potential default settlement asset, enabling deeper economics through reserve earnings, and providing a programmable money layer for emerging use cases like AI agentic commerce. Crucially, OUSD is presented not as a direct "USDC killer" but as an attempt to redefine the business model of stablecoins, proposing a collaborative governance structure where contributing partners share in the network's economic benefits and governance. For Stripe, this is about evolving from a powerful "abstraction layer" over traditional financial rails into an active participant and potential architect of the next-generation global settlement network. While OUSD alone cannot immediately realize this ambition, it signals Stripe's intent to move closer to the money layer itself, positioning itself at the center of future money flows in an increasingly automated, platform-driven, and AI-powered economy. The ultimate question is whether Stripe can transition from being a best-in-class payment processor to becoming the foundational infrastructure for internet...

Author: Yokiiiya Stablehunter

Five months ago, I wrote an article titledStripe|AWS of the Financial World: Why It Becomes the Biggest Winner in the AI + Stablecoin Era, where I argued that Money will run on Stripe. Stripe is not just building a better payment button; it is turning financial capabilities like collecting payments, making payouts, issuing cards, managing fund accounts, handling taxes, and billing into infrastructure that developers can call, much like cloud services.

But with the emergence of Open USD, we see that Stripe wants to prove not just that money will run on Stripe. It aims to show that:

Money will not only run through Stripe.

Money may settle on a network Stripe helped define.

I. OUSD is a Key Step for Stripe's Transformation into a Money Movement Network

The significance of OUSD lies not in it being just another stablecoin, but in it providing Stripe with a bigger narrative: transforming from a payments API company into a money movement network.

It won't replace USDC in the short term, nor can it bypass all traditional financial systems. However, it gives Stripe the opportunity not just to connect payments but to reorganize settlement, liquidity, and yield distribution. In the past, we often understood Stripe as a better payment gateway, but more accurately, Stripe is an aggregation layer built upon card networks, bank account systems, local clearing networks, acquiring/issuing licenses, and various traditional payment rails.

This is also its limitation.

What Stripe truly wants to break through is the strategic constraint of being "just the API layer on top of traditional payment networks." If Stripe were merely a better payments API, no matter how big it gets, it could easily be framed against competitors like Adyen, PayPal, Fiserv, Checkout.com, and acquiring banks. The market would focus on transaction volume, take rate, whether gross margins can be maintained, if card network costs will continue to rise, and whether regulations and local licenses will limit expansion.

This would still be a very good company, but not yet a truly financial network. The significance of OUSD is that it gives Stripe the chance to advance its narrative from "we help merchants connect payment methods" to "we participate in defining the next-generation commercial settlement network."

The valuation logic for these two things is completely different. The former is software and payment aggregators, the latter is a network.

What is most valuable in the payments industry has never been just the API, but network effects. Visa and Mastercard are valuable not because they have prettier payment buttons, but because they organize a multi-sided network: issuers, acquirers, merchants, consumers, risk rules, dispute resolution, and clearing paths all operate within the same rule system.

If Stripe wants to tell a bigger story than "payments API," it must answer one question: Can it not only connect others' networks but also organize its own network? OUSD provides the narrative entry point. What attracts Stripe to OUSD is not whether it's another dollar stablecoin, but that it points to four things simultaneously.

First, it gives Stripe the opportunity to have a default settlement asset.

In the past, Stripe helped merchants connect to Visa, Mastercard, ACH, local wallets, and bank transfers. In the future, if OUSD can become the default settlement asset for Stripe's merchants, platforms, marketplaces, and AI agents, Stripe would not just be connecting others' networks but organizing its own.

Second, it changes economic distribution.

In traditional payments, Stripe can charge processing fees, but underlying network fees, bank fees, card network fees, and some fund yields remain with others. If stablecoin reserve yields, minting/redeeming, liquidity, wallets, cards, and on/off-ramps are all organized within the Stripe/Bridge system, Stripe has a chance to tap into deeper economics.

Third, it provides a programmable money layer for agentic commerce.

If the underlying layer remains just credit cards and bank transfers, what agents can do will be constrained by authorization, risk controls, settlement delays, cross-border costs, and reconciliation processes. Stablecoins don't solve all problems, but they are closer to a money rail that machines can call.

Fourth, it moves Stripe from a software company toward a network company.

If OUSD succeeds, Stripe's story could shift from "we make payments easier" to "we are organizing the next-generation global commercial settlement network." This is its truly important aspect. But we must also look at it calmly.

Currently, OUSD is more like the narrative starting point for this ambition, rather than a completed infrastructure. Stablecoin networks aren't announced; they need deep enough liquidity, stable and low-friction redemption, bank and regulatory acceptance, merchants willing to hold or auto-settle, integration with enterprise ERP, treasury, and reconciliation systems, stable cross-chain and cross-region experiences, and participant governance that doesn't become a slow-decision alliance.

Therefore, OUSD is not a USDC killer in the short term. It's more like Stripe asking the market a question: If future money movement doesn't just rely on traditional payment networks, then who will organize the new settlement assets, distribution networks, and economic distribution mechanisms?

II. What OUSD Actually Aims to Do: Not a USDC Killer, But Rewriting Stablecoin Benefit Distribution

Open USD, abbreviated as OUSD, is a new dollar stablecoin announced by Open Standard on June 30, 2026. The official definition is: a shared stablecoin for global financial activity, i.e., a stablecoin for global financial activities.

It is not a "private stablecoin" issued solely by Stripe. It is governed and operated by Open Standard, an independent company, with participation from a group of payment companies, banks, fintech companies, crypto infrastructure firms, and merchant platforms. Official participants listed include Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, BNY, Coinbase, Shopify, Bridge, Tempo, Privy, etc.

There's an interesting detail here: OUSD was not directly launched by Stripe officially. It was announced by Open Standard, and Open Standard's founding CEO is Zach Abrams. Zach Abrams is also the co-founder/CEO of Bridge, which has been acquired by Stripe.

Organizationally, OUSD is not unrelated to Stripe. On the contrary, it clearly lies on the strategic extension line of Stripe/Bridge's stablecoin strategy. But from a product and governance narrative perspective, it cannot be packaged as Stripe's private stablecoin.

This is precisely where OUSD is delicate: It needs Stripe and Bridge's execution capabilities, payment network understanding, and future distribution power, but it must present itself as a stablecoin network with multi-party participation, co-governance, and shared economic benefits through the independent entity Open Standard.

In other words, it needs Stripe's strength, but it mustn't appear to be just Stripe's coin. OUSD's design focuses on three aspects.

First, minting and redeeming are free, with no artificially set scale limits.

Second, the yield generated by OUSD's reserve assets, after deducting a small management fee, will be distributed to partners who drive adoption and distribution.

Third, it adopts collaborative governance. Open Standard's board is composed of OUSD partners. The official vision is for it not to be a private network of any single company, but a stablecoin infrastructure shaped by participants. OUSD is not just another dollar stablecoin; it attempts to answer a more commercial question:

If stablecoins become the infrastructure for global money movement, should the companies that use, distribute, and bring transaction scenarios to them also participate in governance and benefit distribution?

So, what does OUSD actually aim to do? I don't believe it is a USDC killer in the short term.

USDC's first-mover advantage is very real. It has liquidity, exchange and DeFi use cases, institutional trust, a compliance brand, and many completed integrations. Stablecoins aren't something you can migrate just by changing the name; behind them lies redemption trust, liquidity depth, counterparty acceptance, and operational inertia.

After OUSD's announcement, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire quickly responded to competition concerns raised by OUSD. His core point wasn't "anyone can issue a stablecoin," but quite the opposite: stablecoins are a long-term accumulation of platform and network effects.

He emphasized that USDC's moat comes mainly from three things: developer and application integrations, global liquidity, and regulatory and financial system integration.

In Circle's official Q1 2026 data, USDC's circulating supply is $77 billion, with quarterly on-chain transaction volume of $21.5 trillion. This number may not fully reflect real commercial payment penetration, but it's enough to show one thing: USDC is not a ticker that can be easily replaced; it's already an operational stablecoin network.

This is also why framing OUSD as a "USDC killer" would be an oversimplification. What's truly interesting about OUSD is not that it will immediately replace someone, but that it has chosen a different path: It doesn't start by competing for trading liquidity in the crypto-native world, but cuts in from enterprise payments, platform settlement, merchant distribution, and reserve yield distribution.

In existing stablecoin models, many users are actually just distributors or channels. The more a stablecoin is used, the more the issuer benefits from reserve yields. While payment companies, platforms, merchants, wallets, banks, and fintech contribute to distribution and use cases, they may not fully participate in the underlying economics.

This is what OUSD wants to change. It tries to persuade enterprises: You're not just using a stablecoin; you can also participate in the governance and economic distribution of this stablecoin network.

Therefore, what OUSD challenges is not just USDC's market share. It challenges a more fundamental issue in the stablecoin industry: Who contributes to the stablecoin's use cases, and who should share how much of its economic benefits?

From this perspective, USDC's advantages remain strong, but what OUSD proposes is not a simple replacement relationship, but a new benefit distribution model. This also explains why it emphasizes open, neutral governance, and shared economics.

Open, to reduce the psychological cost for enterprises to join and exit. Neutral governance, to make participants believe this isn't a private stablecoin of any single company. Shared economics, to allow companies that truly bring distribution and transaction volume to participate in reserve yield and network value distribution.

This is not purely a technical issue; it's a commercial organization issue. Of course, this path is also harder. The larger the alliance, the higher the coordination costs. The more participants, the more complex the governance. The more a stablecoin wants to become public infrastructure, the more it must address who is responsible, who benefits, who bears liability, and who makes final decisions.

Allaire's rebuttal to "everyone sharing benefits" precisely touches this contradiction: If all revenue is distributed, who will continuously invest in infrastructure? This isn't just Circle's defensive rhetoric. It is indeed a question OUSD must answer in the future.

Circle's logic is: A strong issuer needs to retain sufficient profits to continuously build compliance, liquidity, redemption, and global financial infrastructure.

OUSD's logic is: If stablecoins are to become shared infrastructure, then participants contributing distribution, use cases, and transaction volume should also share more reserve economics and governance rights.

Therefore, this isn't a simple competition of "who is cheaper." It's competition between two ways of organizing stablecoins. OUSD is not a USDC killer in the short term.

It is more like a commercial counter-question to the USDC model: If stablecoins truly become the next-generation global payment infrastructure, should they be dominated by a strong issuer, or co-governed by a group of commercial networks that genuinely contribute traffic, use cases, and trust?

III. Stripe Needs More Than Growth; It Needs a Larger Company Narrative

Stripe is already a very large company, serving a vast number of global internet companies, SaaS, platform businesses, marketplaces, and emerging AI companies. Its products have long been more than just payment buttons, covering a whole suite of financial infrastructure including payments collection, payouts, billing, taxes, risk controls, card issuing, fund accounts, and business registration.

But the problem is, the capital market doesn't just ask if a company is big. It also asks: What exactly is this company? This is a question Stripe has always needed to answer.

If Stripe is understood as a payments company, it gets valued within the framework of payments companies. The market will look at its transaction processing volume, take rate, gross margin, card network costs, competitive intensity, regulatory pressure, and whether it can sustain high growth long-term.

If Stripe is understood as a software company, it faces another problem: Its revenue structure includes a large portion driven by payment volume, unlike pure SaaS with very clear subscription revenue and software margin models.

Therefore, Stripe's most imaginative narrative has never been "we are a payments company," nor simply "we are a SaaS company."

It is: We are the financial infrastructure for the internet economy. Five months ago, I wrote about it being the "AWS of the Financial World," which is exactly this point.

AWS's core isn't that it has many APIs, but that enterprises run their computing, storage, databases, networking, security, and deployment processes on it. It provides not a point tool, but the default runtime environment.

What Stripe wants to become isn't a point payment tool either. It wants to become the default financial runtime environment for internet commerce, which is also why OUSD is important to Stripe.

Because if Stripe continues just packaging more traditional financial capabilities as APIs, it remains an abstraction on top of the existing financial system. It can become more user-friendly, more complete, more like a financial OS, but the settlement assets, clearing networks, and part of the economic benefits it depends on remain in others' hands.

What OUSD gives it is an opportunity to move down into the money layer. From this perspective, actions like Bridge, Open Issuance, OUSD, Privy, agentic commerce, and Tempo are not isolated. Bridge gives Stripe stablecoin issuance/orchestration capabilities. Open Issuance allows enterprises to issue and manage their own stablecoins. OUSD provides an entry point for a shared stablecoin and alliance network. Privy brings Stripe closer to wallet, identity, and user-side crypto-native onboarding. Tempo is a payments-focused blockchain incubated by Stripe and Paradigm, pointing to stablecoin payment and settlement rails. Agentic commerce provides a new use case for all this: If AI agents in the future truly represent users, enterprises, and software systems to initiate purchases, subscriptions, service calls, and complete settlements, then payments will no longer be just human actions of clicking checkout buttons, but ongoing fund flows between software.

Looking at these actions together, the story Stripe wants to tell is not just: We make payments easier. It is: We enable the money movement in the next-generation internet economy to be callable by software, manageable by enterprises, and settled globally.

This is the money movement network narrative. It is bigger than payments API, and bigger than "supporting stablecoin payments."

Of course, this story is still just a story for now. OUSD hasn't become a real default settlement asset, and agentic commerce hasn't entered large-scale commercialization. Whether enterprises are willing to hold stablecoins, whether financial systems can integrate, how regulators view it, how traditional payment networks will react—none of these have answers yet.

But a company narrative doesn't emerge only after everything is done; it often appears when a company is about to cross its existing boundaries.

The boundary Stripe is now crossing is from "I help you connect to payments" to "I help you organize money movement."

OUSD is not just another competitor in the stablecoin market. It is a signal of Stripe pushing itself from a payment company toward a money movement network.

IV. Agentic Payment Isn't Competing for the Payment Gateway; It's Competing for the Settlement Layer of Machine Transactions

OUSD is worth examining alongside agentic payment, not because AI agents will definitely only use OUSD for payments in the future.

In fact, the most common and mature stablecoin asset in agentic payment today is still USDC. Many agent wallet, x402, and on-chain micropayment solutions are more easily built around USDC by default. USDC's advantage isn't just its compliance brand, but its integration into developer tools, wallets, exchanges, payment infrastructure, and on-chain liquidity networks.

Visa and Mastercard aren't bystanders either. They won't sit back and wait for stablecoins to replace them. A more realistic scenario is that card networks are also transforming themselves into payment networks usable by agents: finer-grained authorization, stronger tokenized credentials, risk controls, limits, and settlement rules more suitable for machine transactions.

In June 2026, Visa announced a set of AI, stablecoin, and token innovations to support more intelligent, programmable commercial transactions. Mastercard also launched Agent Pay for Machines, explicitly supporting multi-rail settlement with cards, accounts, and stablecoins.

Therefore, the future of agentic payment won't be a simple story of "stablecoins replacing card networks."

What is more likely to happen is: Card networks, bank accounts, stablecoins, wallets, on-chain settlement, and merchant systems will simultaneously compete for the same position: Who will become the settlement layer that agents can call, enterprises can control, merchants can accept, and finance departments can reconcile?

This is also why Stripe's moves are worth looking at together:

OUSD is an attempt at a settlement asset.

Tempo is an attempt at a payment chain and stablecoin settlement rail.

Bridge is infrastructure for stablecoin issuance/orchestration.

Privy is an entry point for wallets, identity, and user onboarding.

If viewed separately, these are just product moves. But viewed together, they point to the same question: Stripe doesn't just want to participate in the front-end checkout of agentic payment. It wants to move from the payment gateway down to the settlement layer. This is also the truly interesting aspect between Stripe and traditional card networks.

Visa and Mastercard's advantage is that they already have global merchant networks, issuer networks, risk rules, and dispute resolution systems. Their most natural path is to transform their existing networks into payment networks that agents can also call.

Stripe's strength isn't owning the card network itself, but standing on the side of merchants, developers, platforms, and emerging software companies, packaging complex financial capabilities into APIs. It is closer to the application layer and merchant side, and more easily integrated into the workflows of AI-native companies, agent tools, SaaS, and marketplaces.

Therefore, if agentic payment truly develops, Stripe won't be satisfied just helping agents call Visa or Mastercard.

What it wants to do more is: Enable agents to use money securely within Stripe's rule system. The key here isn't "can it pay," but the whole set of questions after payment:

Who authorizes? Who sets the budget? Who bears the risk? Who does KYC? Who handles refunds and disputes? Who syncs transactions into the enterprise's accounting system? Who decides how much an agent can spend, on which services, and with which assets to settle?

This is where machine transactions become truly complex. An agent purchasing APIs, calling data, subscribing to tools, paying for compute, completing cross-border tasks—superficially, it's a payment, but behind it lies a set of permission, identity, risk, budget, audit, and reconciliation issues.

Stablecoins can solve part of the settlement efficiency problem, but they can't solve all commercial payment issues alone. Card networks can continue providing authorization, risk controls, and merchant acceptance, but they also need to adapt to low-value, high-frequency, cross-platform, software-initiated transaction patterns.

What Stripe wants to compete for is precisely the middle layer between these two:

On one side, connecting merchants and developers; on the other, organizing stablecoins, wallets, identity, risk controls, settlement, and reconciliation.

From this perspective, OUSD isn't the entire answer to agentic payment; it is a piece of the puzzle for Stripe moving down to the settlement layer.

The real ambition is to turn agentic payment into a money movement network that Stripe can organize.

V. So, Can OUSD Support Stripe's Ambitions?

Returning to the initial question: Can Open USD support Stripe's ambitions? My answer is: Not in the short term, but it makes this ambition more concrete for the first time.

It can't immediately free Stripe from traditional payment networks. Visa, Mastercard, ACH, local banks, card organizations, acquirers, issuers, regulatory licenses, KYC, AML, taxes, reconciliation—these things won't disappear just because a stablecoin is announced. Real-world commercial payments are never as simple as "money moves from A to B."

Stablecoins can solve part of the transmission problem; they can make funds move faster, cheaper, and more programmably, but they can't automatically solve the landing problem.

After the money arrives, who is responsible for booking it? Who does KYC? Who bears fraud risk? Who handles refunds and disputes? Who ensures the merchant receives funds they can use? Who integrates this transaction into the enterprise's ERP, financial system, and tax processes?

These problems still require a lot of traditional financial and commercial infrastructure, which is also why Stripe won't become a pure crypto company because of OUSD.

The more likely path it will take is another: making stablecoins part of its existing financial infrastructure. That is, if OUSD succeeds, it won't be because it makes Stripe leave the traditional financial system, but because it gives Stripe an additional settlement network, defined with its participation, outside the traditional system.

This network may not replace everything, but it can change Stripe's position in money movement.

In the past, Stripe was more like an excellent translator, translating complex financial systems into APIs developers could call, turning capabilities like payments, billing, taxes, card issuing, risk controls, and fund accounts into modules enterprises could embed into their products.

But OUSD points to something else: Stripe isn't just translating existing financial systems. It is starting to participate in defining new financial systems. This is why I think it's worth writing about. Not because OUSD will definitely win, but because it exposes the most important strategic question for Stripe's next stage:

Does Stripe want to become a better payment processor, or does it want to become the money movement network for the next generation of internet commerce?

These two things seem close but are actually far apart. A payment processor's value comes from transaction processing, risk controls, integration efficiency, and merchant coverage. A money movement network's value comes from network effects, default settlement assets, rule-making capabilities, liquidity organization capabilities, and economic distribution mechanisms.

The former is a service; the latter is infrastructure.

What Stripe has done best over the past fifteen years is turning financial services into software interfaces. But if it wants to support AI commerce, global platform economies, cross-border payouts, stablecoin settlement, and agentic payment in the future, it cannot just stay at the interface layer.

It needs to get closer to the money itself. OUSD gives it an entry point to get closer to the money. Of course, whether this entry point becomes a real network depends on the coming years. It depends on whether OUSD has real use cases, whether Stripe deeply embeds it into merchant, platform, and developer tools, whether participants truly bring distribution rather than just putting logos on the announcement page, whether regulators accept this alliance stablecoin structure, and also how Circle, Tether, banks, card networks, and other payment companies respond.

This won't be answered quickly, but it has already made one thing clear: Stablecoins are no longer just trading assets in the crypto world. They are becoming tools for payment companies, banks, platforms, merchants, and AI companies to compete for the entry point of the next-generation money network.

From this perspective, OUSD isn't Stripe's endpoint; it's a signal of Stripe trying to push itself from a payments API company toward a money movement network.

Five months ago, I wrote: Money will run on Stripe.

Looking today, this statement can be pushed one step further. What Stripe wants to prove is:

Money may settle on a network Stripe helped define.

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相关问答

QAccording to the article, what is the core strategic significance of Open USD (OUSD) for Stripe, beyond being just another stablecoin?

AThe article argues that OUSD's core significance for Stripe is not as another stablecoin, but as a narrative vehicle for a larger strategic shift. It moves Stripe's story from being a "payments API company" to becoming a "money movement network." This transition means Stripe would no longer just be an aggregator/abstraction layer on top of existing card and banking networks, but a participant in defining the settlement assets, distribution networks, and economic distribution mechanisms for the next generation of global commerce. This shift has a fundamentally different valuation logic, from a software/payments aggregator to a network.

QHow does the design of OUSD attempt to rewrite the profit-sharing model of the stablecoin industry?

AOUSD attempts to rewrite the stablecoin profit-sharing model through three key design principles: 1) No fees for minting and redeeming, with no artificial caps. 2) The yield generated by OUSD's reserve assets, after a small management fee, is distributed to the partners who drive its adoption and distribution. 3) It employs collaborative governance through the Open Standard entity, involving partners in its board. The core idea is that companies contributing to the stablecoin's usage, distribution, and transaction volume should share in the governance rights and the economic benefits (reserve yield) of the network, rather than having those benefits primarily accrue to a single issuer.

QWhat are the four key areas that OUSD points towards, which collectively support Stripe's ambition to build a 'money movement network'?

AThe article states that OUSD points towards four key areas for Stripe's ambition: 1) **Owning a default settlement asset**: It gives Stripe the chance to have OUSD as the default settlement asset for its merchants, platforms, and AI agents, moving beyond just connecting to others' networks. 2) **Changing economic distribution**: It allows Stripe to capture a deeper layer of economics, including reserve yield and liquidity, beyond just processing fees. 3) **Providing a programmable money layer for agentic commerce**: It offers a financial rail more suitable for machine-initiated transactions compared to traditional systems. 4) **Moving from a software company to a network company**: It enables the narrative of organizing the next-generation global commercial settlement network.

QIn the context of agentic payments, what is the critical layer that Stripe, according to the article, is competing to own, beyond just the payment checkout?

AIn the context of agentic payments, the article suggests Stripe is competing to own the **settlement layer**. This goes beyond the front-end payment checkout. It's about the comprehensive system that handles authorization, budgeting, risk management, KYC, refunds/disputes, transaction reconciliation with enterprise systems (like ERP), and deciding which assets settle a transaction. Stripe aims to be the middle layer that connects merchants/developers on one side and organizes stablecoins, wallets, identity, risk controls, settlement, and reconciliation on the other, making agentic payments a part of its 'money movement network.'

QWhat is the article's final assessment on whether OUSD can support Stripe's ambition in the short term and what is its symbolic importance?

AThe article's final assessment is that OUSD **cannot** fully support Stripe's ambition in the short term, as it faces significant challenges like building liquidity, gaining regulatory acceptance, and integrating with real-world business processes (KYC, accounting, etc.). However, its symbolic importance is that it makes Stripe's ambition much more concrete for the first time. OUSD serves as a signal and an entry point for Stripe to move from being a 'payments API company' to a 'money movement network.' It represents Stripe's attempt to participate in defining a new financial layer (a settlement network) alongside, not in full replacement of, the traditional financial system.

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比特币市场目前显现出结构性企稳的迹象,正从激进的抛售阶段向平衡状态过渡。价格动能从近期低点显著回升,并在现货市场净抛压实质性减弱的背景下获得支撑。尽管现货交易量仍较低迷,但成交量的收缩表明市场正处于盘整期,参与者态度更为谨慎,为资产构筑底部。 这一稳定趋势在衍生品市场得到印证,投机性敞口的需求正在扩大。期货未平仓合约量上升,同时多方资金费率支付激增并超过历史常态,显示出看涨交易者重新展现的积极兴趣。期权市场则表明极端看空情绪正在降温,25-delta偏斜度的缓和意味着对下行保护的需求紧迫性在减弱。尽管已实现波动率开始超过隐含波动率,暗示市场机制可能即将转变。 美国现货ETF的机构活动进一步强化了这种稳定。随着ETF平均投资者重回盈利状态,净流出规模已收窄,反映出近期的减持趋势可能已近枯竭。 链上基本面提供了更多佐证,活跃地址数和转账量的增加表明网络参与基础正在扩大。尽管仍有大量持仓处于未实现亏损状态,但损益实现速度的放缓表明市场目前由长期信念锚定,底层结构更具韧性。同时,热资本份额的上升意味着短期价格敏感资本更为活跃,这种结构通常会导致波动性增加。盈利指标有所改善,未实现和已实现利润均出现上涨,凸显投资者仍处于盈利状态,市场情绪保持谨慎乐观。 综上所述,比特币似乎正处于盘整阶段。上行动能虽已减弱,但期货市场的稳定和强劲的盈利状况支撑着其韧性。与之相抵的是不断累积的卖压和期权市场的防御性布局,使市场在内在强度与日益增长的谨慎情绪之间达到平衡。

insights.glassnode57分钟前

BTC 市场脉搏:第 28 周

insights.glassnode57分钟前

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