Bitcoin’s Post-Quantum Shift Could Take A Decade, Crypto Exec Says

bitcoinist发布于2025-12-23更新于2025-12-23

文章摘要

A debate is emerging regarding the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin and its potential market impact. While some investors, like Capriole's Charles Edwards, warn it could push Bitcoin below $50,000 by 2028 if unaddressed, developers urge caution. Bitcoin Core developer Jameson Lopp and Blockstream CEO Adam Back agree the threat is not immediate, but a migration to post-quantum cryptography could take 5-10 years due to the protocol's complexity and need for widespread coordination. The community is split; some VCs see imminent risk, while long-time advocates like Pierre Rochard question the urgency. Upgrading Bitcoin's cryptography is a massive undertaking, involving proposals like BIP 360, but enforcement and coordination remain significant challenges. The call is for funding research and building migration tools, as price concerns turn the issue from academic to practical.

According to reports, a new round of debate over quantum computers and Bitcoin has pushed technical questions into market talk.

Some investors say the threat is close enough to affect price. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, warned that Bitcoin could fall below $50,000 by 2028 if the network is not made quantum-ready.

Developers Urge Caution

Jameson Lopp, a Bitcoin Core developer and co-founder of custody firm Casa, has argued that migration to post-quantum cryptography will not be quick.

Lopp told followers on X that while quantum machines are not an immediate danger, moving the protocol and users’ funds to new signature schemes could “easily take five to 10 years.”

He agreed with Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, who has also said the threat is not near-term but should be watched.

Community Split Over Timing

Reports have disclosed a widening gap in how the community views the timeline. Some venture capitalists and investment firms say quantum risk is imminent and should be priced now.

On the other side, long-time Bitcoin advocates question the urgency. Pierre Rochard argued that quantum-resistant fixes can be paid for by non-profits or VC funding, and he suggested an attack would be so costly it would require government-level support.

BTCUSD currently trading at $89,951. Chart: TradingView

Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, pushed back with a plainspoken line about current machines, saying they “can’t factor the number 21 — not 21 million — 21,” to make a point about how far current quantum hardware still is from breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography. Andreas M. Antonopoulos has also weighed in, noting that upgrades are possible ahead of any real threat.

What Upgrading Bitcoin Means

Changing Bitcoin’s cryptography is not the same as updating ordinary software. According to developers, the distributed nature of the network, the variety of wallet software in use, and the many holders who do not actively manage keys make a broad migration difficult.

BIP 360, a proposal that would add a quantum-ready signature method for BTC, has been pushed by some figures. Charles Edwards has called for node operators to enforce BIP 360 to speed adoption, while others say enforcement and coordination would be tricky and could take years.

Calls For Protocol Change

Market watchers should note the difference between theory and proof. The technical camp says there is time to plan and roll out changes carefully. The investment camp warns that market confidence could wobble if measures are not taken quickly.

Calls for action include funding research, testing signature replacements, and building migration tools that exchanges and wallets can use. The debate has become public because price concerns make the matter of practical interest, not just academic.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

相关问答

QAccording to the article, how long might it take to migrate Bitcoin to post-quantum cryptography?

AAccording to Jameson Lopp, co-founder of Casa, migrating the Bitcoin network and users' funds to new, quantum-resistant signature schemes could easily take five to 10 years.

QWhat is the main argument of the investment camp regarding the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin?

AThe investment camp argues that the quantum risk is imminent and should be priced into the market now, with some warning that Bitcoin's price could fall if the network is not made quantum-ready soon.

QWhat did Samson Mow say to illustrate the current limitations of quantum computers?

ASamson Mow stated that current quantum machines 'can’t factor the number 21 — not 21 million — 21,' to emphasize how far the hardware is from being able to break Bitcoin's cryptography.

QWhat is BIP 360, as mentioned in the article?

ABIP 360 is a proposal that would add a quantum-ready signature method to Bitcoin, which some figures are pushing for in order to prepare the network for the future threat of quantum computers.

QWhy is upgrading Bitcoin's cryptography particularly difficult, according to developers?

AUpgrading Bitcoin's cryptography is difficult due to the distributed nature of the network, the wide variety of wallet software in use, and the fact that many holders do not actively manage their keys, making a broad and coordinated migration a complex challenge.

你可能也喜欢

以太坊获机构瞩目——Etherealize CEO如是说

加密货币领域持续发展,以太坊(ETH)正获得越来越多的机构关注,其角色已超越单纯的数字资产。Etherealize首席执行官Vivek Raman表示,以太坊正逐渐成为机构投资组合中的核心资产,与比特币地位相当,并可能成为下一代金融基础设施的基础层。 Raman指出,随着资产增长,机构对ETH的配置是必然趋势。他提到哈佛大学从比特币现货ETF转向以太坊现货ETF的例子,并强调ETH的权益证明机制能带来可观收益,这些因素将推动其成为新的价值存储手段,并促进价格上涨。 此外,Raman还讨论了以太坊网络上资产代币化和稳定币的显著增长,认为大多数高价值的代币化资产和稳定币将在该网络上发行。由于ETH作为去中心化、抗审查的抵押资产,其价值将随着区块链上资产代币化的发展而提升。 长期来看,尽管以太坊短期走势疲软,但前景依然乐观。有分析师预测,到2033年ETH价格可能达到12,000至38,000美元,另有人预测2030年将达60,000美元。当前ETH价格约为2,300美元,短期增长已被市场消化。 专家指出,以太坊生态系统年手续费收入达38.2亿美元,第二层网络处理了大部分交易。随着稳定币规模增长、技术升级持续推进以及机构采用率提升,以太坊被严重低估,未来潜力巨大。

bitcoinist1小时前

以太坊获机构瞩目——Etherealize CEO如是说

bitcoinist1小时前

交易

现货
合约

热门文章

如何购买S

欢迎来到HTX.com!我们已经让购买Sonic(S)变得简单而便捷。跟随我们的逐步指南,放心开始您的加密货币之旅。第一步:创建您的HTX账户使用您的电子邮件、手机号码注册一个免费账户在HTX上。体验无忧的注册过程并解锁所有平台功能。立即注册第二步:前往买币页面,选择您的支付方式信用卡/借记卡购买:使用您的Visa或Mastercard即时购买Sonic(S)。余额购买:使用您HTX账户余额中的资金进行无缝交易。第三方购买:探索诸如Google Pay或Apple Pay等流行支付方法以增加便利性。C2C购买:在HTX平台上直接与其他用户交易。HTX场外交易台(OTC)购买:为大量交易者提供个性化服务和竞争性汇率。第三步:存储您的Sonic(S)购买完您的Sonic(S)后,将其存储在您的HTX账户钱包中。您也可以通过区块链转账将其发送到其他地方或者用于交易其他加密货币。第四步:交易Sonic(S)在HTX的现货市场轻松交易Sonic(S)。访问您的账户,选择您的交易对,执行您的交易,并实时监控。HTX为初学者和经验丰富的交易者提供了友好的用户体验。

2.0k人学过发布于 2025.01.15更新于 2025.03.21

如何购买S

相关讨论

欢迎来到HTX社区。在这里,您可以了解最新的平台发展动态并获得专业的市场意见。以下是用户对S(S)币价的意见。

活动图片