Bitcoin’s Post-Quantum Shift Could Take A Decade, Crypto Exec Says

bitcoinist发布于2025-12-23更新于2025-12-23

文章摘要

A debate is emerging regarding the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin and its potential market impact. While some investors, like Capriole's Charles Edwards, warn it could push Bitcoin below $50,000 by 2028 if unaddressed, developers urge caution. Bitcoin Core developer Jameson Lopp and Blockstream CEO Adam Back agree the threat is not immediate, but a migration to post-quantum cryptography could take 5-10 years due to the protocol's complexity and need for widespread coordination. The community is split; some VCs see imminent risk, while long-time advocates like Pierre Rochard question the urgency. Upgrading Bitcoin's cryptography is a massive undertaking, involving proposals like BIP 360, but enforcement and coordination remain significant challenges. The call is for funding research and building migration tools, as price concerns turn the issue from academic to practical.

According to reports, a new round of debate over quantum computers and Bitcoin has pushed technical questions into market talk.

Some investors say the threat is close enough to affect price. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, warned that Bitcoin could fall below $50,000 by 2028 if the network is not made quantum-ready.

Developers Urge Caution

Jameson Lopp, a Bitcoin Core developer and co-founder of custody firm Casa, has argued that migration to post-quantum cryptography will not be quick.

Lopp told followers on X that while quantum machines are not an immediate danger, moving the protocol and users’ funds to new signature schemes could “easily take five to 10 years.”

He agreed with Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, who has also said the threat is not near-term but should be watched.

Community Split Over Timing

Reports have disclosed a widening gap in how the community views the timeline. Some venture capitalists and investment firms say quantum risk is imminent and should be priced now.

On the other side, long-time Bitcoin advocates question the urgency. Pierre Rochard argued that quantum-resistant fixes can be paid for by non-profits or VC funding, and he suggested an attack would be so costly it would require government-level support.

BTCUSD currently trading at $89,951. Chart: TradingView

Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, pushed back with a plainspoken line about current machines, saying they “can’t factor the number 21 — not 21 million — 21,” to make a point about how far current quantum hardware still is from breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography. Andreas M. Antonopoulos has also weighed in, noting that upgrades are possible ahead of any real threat.

What Upgrading Bitcoin Means

Changing Bitcoin’s cryptography is not the same as updating ordinary software. According to developers, the distributed nature of the network, the variety of wallet software in use, and the many holders who do not actively manage keys make a broad migration difficult.

BIP 360, a proposal that would add a quantum-ready signature method for BTC, has been pushed by some figures. Charles Edwards has called for node operators to enforce BIP 360 to speed adoption, while others say enforcement and coordination would be tricky and could take years.

Calls For Protocol Change

Market watchers should note the difference between theory and proof. The technical camp says there is time to plan and roll out changes carefully. The investment camp warns that market confidence could wobble if measures are not taken quickly.

Calls for action include funding research, testing signature replacements, and building migration tools that exchanges and wallets can use. The debate has become public because price concerns make the matter of practical interest, not just academic.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

相关问答

QAccording to the article, how long might it take to migrate Bitcoin to post-quantum cryptography?

AAccording to Jameson Lopp, co-founder of Casa, migrating the Bitcoin network and users' funds to new, quantum-resistant signature schemes could easily take five to 10 years.

QWhat is the main argument of the investment camp regarding the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin?

AThe investment camp argues that the quantum risk is imminent and should be priced into the market now, with some warning that Bitcoin's price could fall if the network is not made quantum-ready soon.

QWhat did Samson Mow say to illustrate the current limitations of quantum computers?

ASamson Mow stated that current quantum machines 'can’t factor the number 21 — not 21 million — 21,' to emphasize how far the hardware is from being able to break Bitcoin's cryptography.

QWhat is BIP 360, as mentioned in the article?

ABIP 360 is a proposal that would add a quantum-ready signature method to Bitcoin, which some figures are pushing for in order to prepare the network for the future threat of quantum computers.

QWhy is upgrading Bitcoin's cryptography particularly difficult, according to developers?

AUpgrading Bitcoin's cryptography is difficult due to the distributed nature of the network, the wide variety of wallet software in use, and the fact that many holders do not actively manage their keys, making a broad and coordinated migration a complex challenge.

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