Bitcoin’s Post-Quantum Shift Could Take A Decade, Crypto Exec Says

bitcoinist发布于2025-12-23更新于2025-12-23

文章摘要

A debate is emerging regarding the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin and its potential market impact. While some investors, like Capriole's Charles Edwards, warn it could push Bitcoin below $50,000 by 2028 if unaddressed, developers urge caution. Bitcoin Core developer Jameson Lopp and Blockstream CEO Adam Back agree the threat is not immediate, but a migration to post-quantum cryptography could take 5-10 years due to the protocol's complexity and need for widespread coordination. The community is split; some VCs see imminent risk, while long-time advocates like Pierre Rochard question the urgency. Upgrading Bitcoin's cryptography is a massive undertaking, involving proposals like BIP 360, but enforcement and coordination remain significant challenges. The call is for funding research and building migration tools, as price concerns turn the issue from academic to practical.

According to reports, a new round of debate over quantum computers and Bitcoin has pushed technical questions into market talk.

Some investors say the threat is close enough to affect price. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, warned that Bitcoin could fall below $50,000 by 2028 if the network is not made quantum-ready.

Developers Urge Caution

Jameson Lopp, a Bitcoin Core developer and co-founder of custody firm Casa, has argued that migration to post-quantum cryptography will not be quick.

Lopp told followers on X that while quantum machines are not an immediate danger, moving the protocol and users’ funds to new signature schemes could “easily take five to 10 years.”

He agreed with Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, who has also said the threat is not near-term but should be watched.

Community Split Over Timing

Reports have disclosed a widening gap in how the community views the timeline. Some venture capitalists and investment firms say quantum risk is imminent and should be priced now.

On the other side, long-time Bitcoin advocates question the urgency. Pierre Rochard argued that quantum-resistant fixes can be paid for by non-profits or VC funding, and he suggested an attack would be so costly it would require government-level support.

BTCUSD currently trading at $89,951. Chart: TradingView

Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, pushed back with a plainspoken line about current machines, saying they “can’t factor the number 21 — not 21 million — 21,” to make a point about how far current quantum hardware still is from breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography. Andreas M. Antonopoulos has also weighed in, noting that upgrades are possible ahead of any real threat.

What Upgrading Bitcoin Means

Changing Bitcoin’s cryptography is not the same as updating ordinary software. According to developers, the distributed nature of the network, the variety of wallet software in use, and the many holders who do not actively manage keys make a broad migration difficult.

BIP 360, a proposal that would add a quantum-ready signature method for BTC, has been pushed by some figures. Charles Edwards has called for node operators to enforce BIP 360 to speed adoption, while others say enforcement and coordination would be tricky and could take years.

Calls For Protocol Change

Market watchers should note the difference between theory and proof. The technical camp says there is time to plan and roll out changes carefully. The investment camp warns that market confidence could wobble if measures are not taken quickly.

Calls for action include funding research, testing signature replacements, and building migration tools that exchanges and wallets can use. The debate has become public because price concerns make the matter of practical interest, not just academic.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

相关问答

QAccording to the article, how long might it take to migrate Bitcoin to post-quantum cryptography?

AAccording to Jameson Lopp, co-founder of Casa, migrating the Bitcoin network and users' funds to new, quantum-resistant signature schemes could easily take five to 10 years.

QWhat is the main argument of the investment camp regarding the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin?

AThe investment camp argues that the quantum risk is imminent and should be priced into the market now, with some warning that Bitcoin's price could fall if the network is not made quantum-ready soon.

QWhat did Samson Mow say to illustrate the current limitations of quantum computers?

ASamson Mow stated that current quantum machines 'can’t factor the number 21 — not 21 million — 21,' to emphasize how far the hardware is from being able to break Bitcoin's cryptography.

QWhat is BIP 360, as mentioned in the article?

ABIP 360 is a proposal that would add a quantum-ready signature method to Bitcoin, which some figures are pushing for in order to prepare the network for the future threat of quantum computers.

QWhy is upgrading Bitcoin's cryptography particularly difficult, according to developers?

AUpgrading Bitcoin's cryptography is difficult due to the distributed nature of the network, the wide variety of wallet software in use, and the fact that many holders do not actively manage their keys, making a broad and coordinated migration a complex challenge.

你可能也喜欢

破除 DeFi 循环清算魔咒,Vitalik 提出了新方案

以太坊联合创始人Vitalik Buterin近日提出一项创新方案,旨在解决DeFi(去中心化金融)中因抵押品价格暴跌引发的集中强制清算问题。该方案的核心是摒弃传统的“抵押借贷-触发清算”模式,转而依托期权构建合成资产。 传统模式下(如Aave),当抵押品价格跌破安全线,系统会自动强制平仓,这在市场暴跌时容易引发连锁清算,加剧抛压与价格下跌。Vitalik的新方案将1枚ETH等资产拆分为两类期权资产(P和N),其总和始终等于原资产。用户持仓的价值会随着市场行情逐渐偏离目标锚定价,而非在某个阈值被突然清算,从而避免了集中、被动的抛售。 方案将风险管理的主动权从系统和清算人转移至用户手中,用户需要通过主动调仓(轮换期权)来维持目标风险敞口。同时,它将依赖实时高频报价的预言机结算推迟至合约到期日,降低了瞬时价格异常带来的风险。 然而,该方案也面临挑战:用户需容忍资产价值的持续偏移并承担定期调仓的交易成本(滑点);它更适用于对冲或锚定敞口的产品,而非要求严格锚定(如1美元)的会计结算型稳定币;其成功落地高度依赖配套的、低滑点的调仓流动性市场。 尽管目前仅为理论提案,但此举标志着行业顶尖思维开始将强制清算视为可替代的设计选项,而非DeFi不可更改的基石,为未来风控机制的设计开辟了新方向。

marsbit30分钟前

破除 DeFi 循环清算魔咒,Vitalik 提出了新方案

marsbit30分钟前

交易

现货
合约

热门文章

如何购买S

欢迎来到HTX.com!我们已经让购买Sonic(S)变得简单而便捷。跟随我们的逐步指南,放心开始您的加密货币之旅。第一步:创建您的HTX账户使用您的电子邮件、手机号码注册一个免费账户在HTX上。体验无忧的注册过程并解锁所有平台功能。立即注册第二步:前往买币页面,选择您的支付方式信用卡/借记卡购买:使用您的Visa或Mastercard即时购买Sonic(S)。余额购买:使用您HTX账户余额中的资金进行无缝交易。第三方购买:探索诸如Google Pay或Apple Pay等流行支付方法以增加便利性。C2C购买:在HTX平台上直接与其他用户交易。HTX场外交易台(OTC)购买:为大量交易者提供个性化服务和竞争性汇率。第三步:存储您的Sonic(S)购买完您的Sonic(S)后,将其存储在您的HTX账户钱包中。您也可以通过区块链转账将其发送到其他地方或者用于交易其他加密货币。第四步:交易Sonic(S)在HTX的现货市场轻松交易Sonic(S)。访问您的账户,选择您的交易对,执行您的交易,并实时监控。HTX为初学者和经验丰富的交易者提供了友好的用户体验。

2.4k人学过发布于 2025.01.15更新于 2026.06.02

如何购买S

相关讨论

欢迎来到HTX社区。在这里,您可以了解最新的平台发展动态并获得专业的市场意见。以下是用户对S(S)币价的意见。

活动图片