In the crypto world, there’s no such thing as a market close, not even during a crisis.
So while Wall Street stayed quiet on the 3rd of January, the digital asset markets became the first place people looked for a reaction to the shocking capture of Nicolás Maduro.
As news of “Operation Absolute Resolve” spread, along with reports of explosions in Caracas and images of Maduro in U.S. custody, crypto didn’t wait.
Bitcoin’s reaction
After the dramatic events in Caracas, Bitcoin [BTC] saw a brief pullback around 2 a.m. ET after reports of military action in Venezuela, with Bitcoin slipping roughly 0.5% to $89,300.
By the time markets approached 9 a.m. ET, the coin had already recovered most of that loss, trading just under the $90,000 level.
At press time, the asset was back with a 1.91% hike in the past 24 hours and was trading at $91,399.76.
Still, some analysts warn that the market may be sitting in a ‘calm before the storm’ phase.
Needless to say, Venezuela’s importance to the global energy supply adds another layer of uncertainty. Any major shift in the region could influence oil prices, which may then ripple directly into crypto market behavior.
Observers weigh in
Expressing on the matter in an email sent to AMBCrypto, Nischal Shetty, founder of WazirX, highlighted that the prospect of a pro-Western regime change could lead to a significant structural decline in global oil prices.
Shetty said,
“Oil price decline is usually seen as an indicator of weakening macroeconomic demand. This could waver investors from risk on assets like Bitcoin.”
He added,
“But factors such as potential rate cuts, lower inflation probability and overall sentiment shift towards commodities, resulting from the oversupply and subsequent price decline of oil could indicate a surge in crypto investments given how the asset mirrors the equity market closely.”
Past patterns of BTC’s current price action
Miners currently hold around one million Bitcoin, and their profitability depends heavily on energy costs.
According to Shetty, crude oil is still one of the cheapest and most widely available energy sources for large mining operations.
He believes that if Venezuela, home to the world’s largest oil reserves, moves toward a pro-Western government, the global market could see a surge of cheaper oil.
This would make mining far more efficient and lower operational costs across the industry.
Shetty also points out a repeating pattern: over the past year, small increases in oil prices often caused short-term dips in Bitcoin, followed by strong rebounds.
Naturally, traders now see these dips as buying opportunities, shifting money from commodities into Bitcoin as it reacts to broader economic pressures.
What’s more?
This coincided with Bitcoin’s recent price action, suggesting it is shaking off its “digital gold” stagnation to reclaim its crown as the leader of the risk-on pack.
For weeks, an explosive metals rally, culminating in silver’s historic peak at $83, seemed to cap the crypto market, keeping BTC pinned below the psychological $90,000 resistance level.
However, as precious metals begin to retreat from their overextended highs, a shift in market mechanics is becoming visible.
If the current trend holds, the end of the metals’ dominance could serve as the primary catalyst for a BTC supply squeeze, clearing the path for a sustained run toward the six-figure territory.
Final Thoughts
- BTC’s quick rebound from sub-$90K levels suggests strong underlying demand, with buyers stepping in faster than panic could take hold.
- Venezuela’s vast oil reserves unexpectedly tie its political future to Bitcoin’s mining economics, making this crisis a potentially bullish structural event.
