Key Takeaways
Why is Ethereum holding up despite price weakness?
Long-term holders are staying put and Ethereum staking continues to hit all-time highs, signaling strong conviction.
Could ETH rebound by year-end?
The BTC/ETH ratio is stabilizing, weak hands have been shaken out, and historical patterns (like 2018) suggest a potential rebound.
Ethereum [ETH] at $3,000 is hanging by a thread.
Technically, ETH is having a rough Q4 vs. Bitcoin [BTC], which has kept losses under 20%. In fact, ETH’s 28% drop makes this its most bearish quarter relative to BTC since 2019.
What’s more, November has been the worst month. Notably, 75% of ETH’s Q4 losses came just this month, marking Ethereum’s sharpest monthly slide since the -42.79% rally in 2018.
Historical echoes
Source: CoinGlass
However, zoom in, and a key divergence stands out.
Back in 2018, ETH’s -42% slide over a quarter actually paved the way for a 20% rebound in December, while Bitcoin saw a 6% dip. This meant steep quarterly losses for Ethereum don’t always signal continued weakness.
Looking at Ethereum staking metrics, long-term holders appear to be positioning around this momentum. Even with $3,000 hanging by a thread, a year-end rebound can’t be ruled out.
Ethereum staking hits record highs amid market weakness
Long-term conviction looks strong for Ethereum.
Even amid its roughest monthly cycle since Q1, Ethereum’s Total Value Staked (TVS) hit a new all-time high of 36.27 million. Notably, about 200,000 ETH were added to the staking pool just this week.
Put simply, despite price weakness, long-term holders are staying put, signaling confidence in ETH. In technical words, the recent weakness looks more like a broad market risk-off than a loss of faith in Ethereum.
Source: CryptoQuant
That’s an important divergence for a potential rebound.
The ETH/BTC ratio reflects this. After three bearish months and lower lows, it’s been holding sideways above 0.03 this November. If it keeps up, the rebound thesis gains strength.
As a result, with weak hands shaken out and leverage cleared, long-term confidence could be the main catalyst for a year-end ETH bounce against Bitcoin, hinting at a 2018-style comeback.
