On paper, the market continues to show classic accumulation signals.
From a sentiment standpoint, the crypto Fear and Greed Index has rebounded 30 points into neutral since late November, while the TOTAL market cap has remained stuck in a sideways chop around the $3 trillion level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin [BTC] has been range-bound near $90k over the same stretch, hinting that a base may be forming, which could set the stage for $100k, especially since January has historically favored Bitcoin upside.
Against this setup, the latest tariff threat landed right on cue.
For context, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, effective immediately. And yet, BTC’s 1.2% close at $92k shows structural resilience, reinforcing ongoing accumulation signals.
Put simply, the market seems to have adapted to tariff wars.
That said, the key question remains: Is this resilience showing up on-chain? Because looking deeper at the latest round of threats, it may still be too early to interpret Bitcoin’s chop as a clean accumulation zone.
Bitcoin’s consolidation tested
The strategic play behind this tariff move is what really matters.
From a macro view, a 25% tariff on Iran doesn’t look too significant. However, zooming in, the picture shifts. Analysts note that China is Iran’s largest trading partner, accounting for 30% of Iran’s total foreign trade.
In this context, Bitcoin LTH positioning becomes more relevant. According to Glassnode, current LTH behavior is aligned with “higher uncertainty,” a pattern that historically appears in the early stages of deeper bear markets.
Against this backdrop, another LTH distribution wave can’t be ruled out.
Historically, U.S.-China trade war escalations have fueled market-wide FUD. Back in October, following Trump’s 100% tariff levy, LTH realized profits spiked above $1.5 billion, while Bitcoin suffered a 30% drawdown.
So naturally, the question is whether history is about to repeat itself.
As things stand, BTC’s near-term support level is at $80k, aligning with the average cost basis of ETF holders. However, with positioning still fragile and the tariff narrative back in play, downside risk is starting to build.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin continues to consolidate with sentiment improving and $80k acting as critical support. Yet on-chain metrics still signal caution.
- With tariff tensions resurfacing and positioning fragile, another distribution phase can’t be ruled out, raising the risk of a breakdown if macro FUD accelerates.
