# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Prediction

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Prediction", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

You Bet on the News, the Pros Read the Rules: The True Cognitive Gap in Losing Money on Polymarket

The article explains that the key to profiting on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, lies not just predicting real-world events correctly, but in meticulously understanding the specific rules that govern how each market will be resolved. It illustrates this with examples, such as a market on Venezuela's 2026 leader, where the official rules defining "officially holds" the office overruled the intuitive answer of who was in practical control. Other examples include debates over the definition of a "token" or what constitutes an "agreement." The core argument is that a "reality vs. rules" gap creates pricing discrepancies that savvy traders ("车头" or "whales") exploit. The platform has a formal dispute resolution process managed by UMA token holders to settle ambiguous outcomes. This process involves proposal submission, a challenge window, a discussion period, and a final vote. However, the article highlights a critical flaw in this system compared to a traditional court: the lack of separation between the arbiters (UMA voters) and the interested parties (traders with financial stakes in the outcome). This conflict of interest undermines the discussion phase, leads to herd mentality, and results in opaque final decisions without explanatory rulings. Consequently, the system lacks a body of precedent, making it difficult for users to learn from past disputes. The ultimate takeaway is that success on Polymarket requires a lawyer-like scrutiny of the rules to identify and capitalize on the cognitive gap between how events appear and how they are contractually defined for settlement.

marsbit04/21 03:08

You Bet on the News, the Pros Read the Rules: The True Cognitive Gap in Losing Money on Polymarket

marsbit04/21 03:08

Why Do You Always Lose Money on Polymarket? Because You're Betting on News, While the Pros Read the Rules

Why do you always lose money on Polymarket? Because you bet on news, while the pros study the rules. This article explains how top traders ("che tou") profit by meticulously analyzing market rules, not just predicting events. Polymarket, a prediction market platform, often sees disputes over event outcomes due to ambiguous rule wording. For instance, a market asking "Who will be the leader of Venezuela by the end of 2026?" was misinterpreted by many who bet on Delcy Rodríguez, assuming she held power. However, the rules specified "officially holds" as the formally appointed, sworn-in individual. Since Nicolás Maduro was still recognized as president officially, he won the market—even being in prison. To resolve such disputes, Polymarket uses a decentralized arbitration system via UMA protocol. The process involves: 1. Proposal: Anyone can propose a market outcome by staking 750 USDC, earning 5 USDC if unchallenged. 2. Dispute: A 2-hour window allows challenges with a 750 USDC stake; successful challengers earn 250 USDC. 3. Discussion: A 48-hour period on UMA Discord for evidence and debate. 4. Voting: UMA token holders vote in two 24-hour phases (blind then public). Outcomes require >65% consensus and 5M tokens voted; otherwise, four re-votes occur before Polymarket intervention. 5. Settlement: Results are final and automatic. Unlike traditional courts, Polymarket’s system lacks separation between arbitrators and stakeholders—voters often hold market positions, creating conflicts of interest. This leads to herd mentality in discussions and non-transparent outcomes without explanatory rulings, preventing precedent formation. Thus, success on Polymarket hinges on deep rule interpretation, not just event prediction, exploiting gaps between reality and contractual wording.

marsbit04/20 11:58

Why Do You Always Lose Money on Polymarket? Because You're Betting on News, While the Pros Read the Rules

marsbit04/20 11:58

XRP, Bitcoin, And Everything In Between: Pundit Predicts What’s To Come

A crypto analyst (@Bird_XRPL) has outlined a bold market timeline from April 2026 through the end of the year, predicting significant momentum for XRP and Bitcoin. Key early catalysts include the launch of a digital payments platform around April 20 and a potential link between Solana and the XRP Ledger to boost liquidity. Strength in traditional equity markets, influence from figures like Elon Musk, and a revival in retail trading interest are also seen as supportive factors. The outlook anticipates a steady price rise into mid-year, building toward the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The global event, potentially featuring promotions by Cristiano Ronaldo, could introduce crypto to a massive new demographic and drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high. Following a period of attention and a subsequent consolidation phase, a strong Q4 finish is expected. The forecast highlights XRP, projecting a rise toward $27 or higher, fueled by combined market strength, increased participation, and global hype.

bitcoinist04/18 02:02

XRP, Bitcoin, And Everything In Between: Pundit Predicts What’s To Come

bitcoinist04/18 02:02

World Models Shift from Prediction to Planning: HWM and the Challenge of Long-Horizon Control

World models have evolved from focusing on representation learning and future prediction to addressing long-horizon planning challenges. While models like V-JEPA 2 demonstrate strong predictive capabilities using large-scale video pre-training, they struggle with multi-stage control tasks due to error accumulation and exponential growth in action search space. HWM (Hierarchical World Model) introduces a two-level planning structure: a high-level planner outlines coarse subgoals over longer time horizons, while a low-level executor handles short-term actions. This decomposition reduces planning complexity and error propagation. In experiments, HWM achieved 70% success in real-world robotic tasks where flat models failed entirely. Complementary efforts include V-JEPA (focused on representation), HWM (on hierarchical planning), and WAV (World Action Verifier, on self-correction). Together, they mark a shift from pure world modeling to integrated systems capable of prediction, planning, and verification—key to deploying world models in real-world agents and long-term tasks.

marsbit04/17 10:26

World Models Shift from Prediction to Planning: HWM and the Challenge of Long-Horizon Control

marsbit04/17 10:26

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

The article investigates whether blindly betting on NBA teams with higher pre-game win probabilities on Polymarket guarantees profits. Backtesting data from the 2025-26 regular season (1,096 games) shows that a strategy of consistently betting $100 on the team with the higher pre-game probability resulted in a net loss of $2,054 (ROI: -1.87%), indicating that the market is efficient and prices are accurately set. Further analysis reveals that returns varied significantly by team. Certain teams, such as the Trail Blazers (POR, 19% ROI), 76ers (PHI, 14%), Spurs (SAS, 12%), Lakers (LAL, 11%), and Hornets (CHA, 9%), consistently outperformed market expectations when favored. In contrast, top-performing teams like the Celtics, Knicks, and Nugks had ROIs close to zero or negative, showing their probabilities were efficiently priced. The weakest teams showed extreme ROI variations but had insufficient sample sizes for reliable conclusions. The key takeaway is that blindly following pre-game probabilities is not a profitable strategy overall, but targeting specific teams may yield better results.

marsbit04/17 07:02

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

marsbit04/17 07:02

Bitcoin Sentiment Is Turning Bullish Again, But This Analyst Says It’s Not A Good Thing, Here’s Why

Bitcoin has rebounded above $73,000, shifting market sentiment from fear to renewed bullish optimism. However, analyst Max argues that this shift is actually a bearish signal. Based on historical Bitcoin cycles, he suggests that when sentiment gradually turns positive too early, it often indicates the market bottom has not yet been reached. Max points to three missing technical conditions for a cycle low: total capitulation, repeated tests of lows, and a confirmed weekly market structure reversal. Comparing past cycles, he notes that Bitcoin typically undergoes around 365 days of decline after a peak. Projecting from the 2025 top, Max anticipates a potential bottom around October 2026, with a price target of $40,000, aligning with historical bear market duration and magnitude. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $74,590.

bitcoinist04/14 15:33

Bitcoin Sentiment Is Turning Bullish Again, But This Analyst Says It’s Not A Good Thing, Here’s Why

bitcoinist04/14 15:33

DeAgentAI Announces Establishment of AIA Ecosystem Fund, Focusing on 'AI Agent + Physical AI' Track

DeAgentAI, a leading decentralized AI infrastructure project on SUI and BNB Chain, has announced the establishment of the AIA Ecosystem Fund. The fund will focus on the integrated track of "AI Agent + Physical AI," aiming to incubate and accelerate the next generation of AI applications with autonomous decision-making capabilities and extend AI technology from on-chain intelligence to the real world. The fund will provide comprehensive support in technology, user traffic, and ecosystem resources. Its core investment directions include AI Agent applications with autonomous on-chain execution and multi-agent collaboration capabilities, and Physical AI projects that extend AI inference into the physical world through hardware and computing efficiency. The fund has already made seed-round investments in two projects: - AliceAI: An AI-driven prediction market decision system that compresses fragmented information into verifiable, tamper-proof decision signals, offering a full-cycle solution from signal generation to automated execution via Telegram Bot. - An ASIC AI chip project: A custom hardware solution designed specifically for Transformer-based inference, aiming to reduce token processing costs to less than one-tenth of current GPU solutions while significantly improving energy efficiency and lowering latency. According to DeAgentAI’s founder, the goal is to bridge the gap between on-chain intelligence and the physical world, supporting key protocols that connect users to the future of Physical AI.

marsbit04/14 10:21

DeAgentAI Announces Establishment of AIA Ecosystem Fund, Focusing on 'AI Agent + Physical AI' Track

marsbit04/14 10:21

Ripple CEO’s Comments Stir Up A Wave, Here’s What He Said

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse's past prediction that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 has resurfaced, drawing attention from XRP commentators. He cited the shifting U.S. regulatory landscape from a headwind to a tailwind as a key driver, though he provided no specific timeline. The upcoming CLARITY Act is highlighted as a potential catalyst for a Bitcoin bull run and broader crypto adoption. Meanwhile, Garlinghouse declined to give an XRP price prediction due to Ripple's significant holdings, but emphasized XRP remains central to the company's vision. At the time of writing, XRP was trading around $1.32.

bitcoinist04/13 17:02

Ripple CEO’s Comments Stir Up A Wave, Here’s What He Said

bitcoinist04/13 17:02

$200,000 Prize Pool Unlocked! Zoomex Teams Up With Brand Ambassador Emiliano Martínez To Launch EPL Prediction Round 2

Cryptocurrency trading platform Zoomex has launched the second round of its "EPL Points Prediction Campaign" with a $200,000 prize pool, endorsed by brand ambassador and World Cup-winning goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez. Users can predict English Premier League match outcomes and earn points for correct predictions, daily trading, and deposits. Points can be exchanged directly for cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and XRP, or used in a lucky draw for other tokens. The campaign emphasizes transparency and fairness, aligning with Zoomex’s core values. Participants must complete a Unified Trading Account upgrade to join. Zoomex, with over 3 million users globally, holds multiple regulatory licenses and aims to provide a secure and user-friendly trading experience.

TheNewsCrypto04/13 14:59

Tsinghua's Prediction 2 Years Ago Is Becoming Global Consensus: Meta and Two Other Major AI Institutions Have Reached the Same Conclusion

Summary: In a remarkable validation of Chinese AI research, Meta and METR have independently reached conclusions that align perfectly with the "Density Law" proposed by a Tsinghua University and FaceWall Intelligent team two years ago. Published in Nature Machine Intelligence in late 2025, the law states that the computational power required to achieve a specific level of AI performance halves every 3.5 months. This convergence was starkly evident in April 2026. METR reported that AI capabilities are doubling every 88.6 days, while Meta's new model, Muse Spark, demonstrated it could match the performance of a model from the previous year using less than one-tenth of the training compute. When plotted, the growth curves from all three sources—using different metrics (parameters, compute, task length)—show an almost identical exponential slope. The findings have profound implications: AI inference costs are collapsing faster than anticipated, powerful edge-computing AI is becoming rapidly feasible, and the industry's strategy of simply scaling model size is becoming economically inefficient. The Chinese team, which has been building its "MiniCPM" model series based on this law since 2024, is seen as having a significant two-year lead in practical engineering experience, marking a rare instance where Chinese researchers pioneered a fundamental predictive trend in AI.

marsbit04/13 12:14

Tsinghua's Prediction 2 Years Ago Is Becoming Global Consensus: Meta and Two Other Major AI Institutions Have Reached the Same Conclusion