# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Politics

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Politics", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

What Brought GPT and Claude Together? Opposing the Pentagon?

The article discusses the unexpected alignment between rival AI companies OpenAI and Anthropic, driven by their shared ethical stance against the U.S. Department of Defense's demands. Anthropic, the maker of Claude, had signed a $200 million contract with the Pentagon but insisted on two red lines: no mass surveillance of U.S. citizens and no autonomous weapons without human oversight. When the Pentagon demanded unrestricted use, Anthropic refused, citing ethical concerns. In a show of solidarity, over 400 employees from OpenAI and Google signed an open letter supporting Anthropic’s position. OpenAI’s CEO also internally affirmed similar principles. However, this unity was short-lived. After Anthropic held its ground and rejected the Pentagon’s ultimatum, it was labeled a "supply chain security risk," effectively barring it from all federal contracts. Meanwhile, OpenAI secured the Pentagon contract by accepting less stringent terms, agreeing not to engage in mass surveillance or autonomous weapons but without pushing for additional legal safeguards. The piece highlights the political and ideological dimensions of the conflict, noting that Anthropic’s stance was perceived as "woke" and ideologically driven, while OpenAI’s more pragmatic approach was rewarded. The outcome signals the high cost of resisting government pressure in the AI industry and raises questions about the real-world value of ethical principles when faced with political and economic consequences.

marsbit02/28 05:47

What Brought GPT and Claude Together? Opposing the Pentagon?

marsbit02/28 05:47

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

Several major ETF issuers, including Bitwise Asset Management, GraniteShares, and Roundhill Investments, have recently filed applications with the U.S. SEC to launch prediction market ETFs. These ETFs are designed to track the outcomes of U.S. political events, such as the 2028 presidential election and the 2026 midterms, allowing investors to trade election probabilities through traditional brokerage accounts like Robinhood or Fidelity. Prediction markets aggregate crowd-sourced forecasts using real-money contracts, where prices reflect the market’s consensus probability of an event occurring. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have demonstrated strong predictive accuracy in events like the 2024 U.S. election, often outperforming traditional polls due to their incentive-based structure. The proposed ETFs would track the price movements of these prediction market contracts, with share values fluctuating between $0 and $1. If the predicted event occurs, the corresponding “Yes” ETF would settle near $1; otherwise, it would approach $0. Unlike Bitcoin ETFs, which track asset prices, these are binary outcome products, more akin to options or insurance. If approved, these ETFs could bring prediction markets into mainstream finance, offering new tools for hedging and macro risk management. However, concerns remain about potential market manipulation, public perception influence, and regulatory approval, as the SEC may view them as gambling-like instruments. The move represents a significant test of how “probability as an asset” is accepted in traditional markets.

marsbit02/22 12:46

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

marsbit02/22 12:46

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

A new wave of ETF applications has been submitted to the SEC by asset managers including Bitwise, GraniteShares, and Roundhill Investments. These ETFs aim to track the outcomes of U.S. political elections—such as the 2028 presidential race and 2026 midterm control of Congress—by packaging prediction market contracts into tradable securities. This would allow mainstream investors to use traditional brokerage accounts to bet on electoral results, similar to platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi, but within the regulated financial system. Prediction markets aggregate crowd-sourced probabilities through financial incentives, often demonstrating stronger predictive accuracy than traditional polls, as seen during the 2024 U.S. election. The proposed ETFs would reflect binary event probabilities, with share prices fluctuating between $0 and $1. If the predicted outcome occurs, the ETF value approaches $1; otherwise, it nears zero. Most funds would liquidate after the event settles. This move could significantly broaden participation and liquidity, potentially making prediction markets a tool for hedging policy risks or macro strategies. However, it also raises regulatory and ethical concerns, including potential market influence on public perception and the risk of manipulation. The SEC’s approval remains uncertain, as it may view these products as blurring the line between investing and gambling. The outcome of these applications could signal a major shift in how probabilistic events are traded and perceived in mainstream finance.

Odaily星球日报02/22 12:43

Prediction Market ETFs: A Foray into the Mainstream or Playing with Fire?

Odaily星球日报02/22 12:43

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