Powell's Reappointment Probability Soars to 98%, Is Trump's 'Firing Order' Just Empty Talk?
Powell's likelihood of remaining as Fed Chair surges to 98%, as Trump's threat to fire him appears increasingly unenforceable. The key issue is the Senate confirmation of Trump's nominee, Kevin Warsh, scheduled for a hearing on April 21. Opposition from Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who insists on delaying the vote until a Justice Department investigation into Powell (regarding Fed building renovation costs) is concluded, threatens to stall the process. With limited Senate working days before Powell's term ends on May 15, Warsh’s confirmation is unlikely to proceed in time.
If no successor is confirmed, Powell will continue as interim Chair, a scenario supported by precedent and the Federal Reserve Act. Trump has threatened to fire Powell if he doesn’t step down, but legal authority to do so is weak—dismissal requires “for cause” justification, not policy disagreements. The ongoing investigation has so far yielded no evidence of wrongdoing by Powell, making a court challenge likely to fail. Market participants, however, may prefer Warsh, who is perceived as more open to rate cuts and crypto-friendly policies.
Odaily星球日报2 дня назад 03:01
