# Сопутствующие статьи по теме MVRV

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "MVRV", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

Analysis of Bitcoin Trading Strategies: Why Celebrity Forecasts and Classic Models Fail, Leaving Only These Four Reliable Indicators This analysis examines the failure of common Bitcoin prediction methods and identifies four reliable indicators for constructing a trading strategy. The author reviewed all major BTC prediction approaches from 2017-2025, categorizing them into three groups: celebrity price targets (consistently over-optimistic), analytical models like Stock-to-Flow (broken post-2022), and on-chain signals. The key finding is that more data often creates confusion, not clarity. The strategy discards unreliable elements: celebrity predictions (incentivized to be extreme), pure models (invalidated by post-ETF market changes), and the Fear & Greed Index used alone (too many false signals). Four reliable indicators were selected: 1. **MVRV Z-Score:** Accurately identifies cycle bottoms when entering its green zone (e.g., 2018, 2020, 2022). Note: Its ability to call tops is now ineffective post-2024. 2. **SOPR (28-day MA):** Consistently signals bottoms when below 1.0, indicating holders are selling at a loss. 3. **ETF Net Flow:** A crucial post-2024 metric showing institutional momentum (e.g., sustained inflows = buying). 4. **Macro Liquidity (Fed policy & M2):** Sets the overall directional bias (e.g., bullish during easing cycles). The core strategy involves waiting for a multi-signal共振 (resonance). For example, a bottom signal requires MVRV in the green zone + SOPR < 1.0. A top signal requires overheated on-chain data + sustained ETF outflows. Macro policy sets the overall direction. The Fear & Greed Index is only used as a weighted confirmatory signal, never alone. Action is only taken when three or more indicators align. The author automated this into a monitoring system that sends Telegram alerts only when signals trigger. As of the article's date (April 15, 2026), the system showed a strong bottom signal: extreme fear (F&G=12), MVRV in the buy zone, and SOPR < 1.0. The only contrary signal was weak ETF flows. Historically, such triple on-chain共振 has preceded 100%+ returns. The conclusion emphasizes building a personal framework over relying on external predictions, allowing for iterative improvement and customization based on individual risk tolerance.

marsbit7 ч. назад

Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

marsbit7 ч. назад

Bitcoin Supply In Profit Drops Sharply, Echoing Previous Bear Market Levels, Downtrend To Continue?

Bitcoin's price has failed to recover significantly since its all-time high, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The supply of BTC in profit has sharply declined to around 59%, nearing levels last seen during the previous bear market. This indicates that nearly half of all Bitcoin is held at a loss, well below the historical average of 75%. Analysts suggest that if the profit supply drops to 50%, it could signal a market bottom, though current conditions point to a potential accumulation phase rather than mass selling. Additionally, the MVRV Z-Score has not yet entered the bottoming zone, suggesting the bear market may continue for another six months, with another major price drop likely.

bitcoinist04/11 02:03

Bitcoin Supply In Profit Drops Sharply, Echoing Previous Bear Market Levels, Downtrend To Continue?

bitcoinist04/11 02:03

Dogecoin – Analyzing the effect of profit-taking on DOGE’s latest rally attempts

Dogecoin (DOGE) has struggled to sustain its mid-March rally, remaining range-bound since late February. This consolidation phase follows a downtrend from October, with further lows possible depending on Bitcoin and market conditions. On-chain data shows a decline in new address growth, similar to the 2024 downtrend, indicating potential for new price lows. Active addresses and transaction volumes spiked in mid-March as DOGE approached $0.104, reflecting profit-taking behavior. The 3-month mean coin age has been falling, indicating selling by short-term holders, while the 1-year mean coin age is rising, suggesting accumulation by long-term holders. However, this accumulation may not be sufficient for a significant rally beyond $0.104, as short-term holders are likely to sell into any price bounce.

ambcrypto04/10 07:39

Dogecoin – Analyzing the effect of profit-taking on DOGE’s latest rally attempts

ambcrypto04/10 07:39

Here’s why Ethena [ENA] faces selling risk despite undervalued signals

Ethena (ENA) faces significant selling pressure despite showing signs of being undervalued. The token experienced a 12.82% drop on April 2, falling to $0.0789, though it later recovered slightly above $0.08. Long-term trends remain bearish. Key on-chain metrics, such as MVRV pricing bands, indicate ENA has been below lower extremes since October 2025, with a current market price of $0.08 compared to a realized price of $0.373. Only 0.018% of the supply is in profit, meaning most holders are at a loss. While accumulation behavior has been observed—with the holder accumulation ratio at 74% and an increasing 365-day mean coin age—network activity remains weak. Daily active addresses and network growth are near six-month lows. Despite undervaluation, any price recovery may be aggressively sold off as holders seek to exit or break even. The ongoing market downturn, including Bitcoin’s decline, adds further risk. Value investors should proceed with caution.

ambcrypto04/03 08:05

Here’s why Ethena [ENA] faces selling risk despite undervalued signals

ambcrypto04/03 08:05

Ethereum shows early accumulation signals – Can ETH’s demand sustain a breakout?

Ethereum is showing early signs of accumulation as it trades near $2,130, approximately 11% below its Realized Price of $2,349. This narrow gap reduces loss-driven selling, with the NUPL at -0.04 indicating mild unrealized losses rather than full capitulation. The MVRV Ratio of 0.86 suggests the average holder remains about 14% underwater, limiting panic selling and signaling a late-stage correction. A rising Taker Buy/Sell Ratio near 1.13 across exchanges points to increasing buyer aggression, reminiscent of the pre-rally conditions in April-May 2025. While short-term price action shows low conviction, the convergence of these metrics suggests accumulation is underway, with limited downside risk barring new shocks, setting the stage for a potential sustained recovery.

ambcrypto04/01 19:02

Ethereum shows early accumulation signals – Can ETH’s demand sustain a breakout?

ambcrypto04/01 19:02

Bitcoin: A structural shift is underway for BTC – Pressure builds under the surface

Bitcoin is experiencing a period of tight consolidation and muted volatility, with underlying pressure building as short-term holders (STHs) continue to realize losses and sell at a loss. This has resulted in deeply negative STH outflows and only 4.9% of the STH supply remaining in profit, creating significant price resistance. A major capitulation spike occurred in early February, with forced selling driving the price down sharply. However, large holders (whales) are not selling into this pressure. Balances for the 10,000–100,000 BTC and 100,000–1,000,000 BTC cohorts remain steady, indicating deliberate holding and absorption of the supply from stressed sellers. This behavior limits downside follow-through and prevents broader liquidation cascades. Concurrently, long-term holder (LTH) supply remains firm at around 14.8 million BTC, showing no signs of distribution. The monthly net position change has climbed to 353,000 BTC, marking the strongest accumulation since April 2025. Illiquid supply is also rising, indicating coins are moving into wallets with low spending intent. This redistribution of supply from weak hands to strong hands helps stabilize the price and increases the probability of a base formation rather than a further breakdown.

ambcrypto03/29 09:16

Bitcoin: A structural shift is underway for BTC – Pressure builds under the surface

ambcrypto03/29 09:16

Cardano Shorts Pile Up As Weekly Rates Reach Multi-Year High

Cardano's price remains under pressure, trading below $0.30 amid heightened bearish sentiment. Data from Santiment reveals a multi-year high in short positions on Binance, indicating traders are betting on further decline. Concurrently, the 365-Day MVRV ratio shows a deeply negative return of -43%, suggesting ADA may be in a potential buy zone. This extreme pessimism often precedes a market bottom, though bullish momentum has yet to materialize despite recent regulatory clarity from the SEC classifying Cardano as a commodity.

bitcoinist03/26 02:02

Cardano Shorts Pile Up As Weekly Rates Reach Multi-Year High

bitcoinist03/26 02:02

Cardano stuck in 2-month range: Is a long-term bottom in sight for ADA?

Cardano (ADA) has been trading within a narrow range for nearly two months, failing to capitalize on the bullish momentum seen in Bitcoin and other altcoins in March. A decisive breakout above $0.30 or below $0.245 is needed to determine its next price trend. Despite underperforming, ADA shows potential long-term bottom signals. Santiment data indicates a -43% 365-day MVRV, reflecting significant losses for holders and placing the asset in a historical buy zone. Additionally, Binance funding rates are at their most negative since mid-2023, suggesting extreme shorting pressure. These conditions have historically preceded market bottoms and could fuel a short squeeze, attracting capital inflows. However, investors should remain cautious. Any significant rally may face selling pressure from profit-taking and investors exiting at breakeven. Key resistance levels to watch are $0.30, $0.315, $0.365, and $0.43, where taking partial profits is advised. A drop below the $0.235–$0.24 range could invalidate the bullish outlook and signal continued seller dominance.

ambcrypto03/24 21:14

Cardano stuck in 2-month range: Is a long-term bottom in sight for ADA?

ambcrypto03/24 21:14

Ethereum OG Whale Returns To Market With $19.5M ETH Buy — Details

An Ethereum whale known as thomasg.eth has returned to the market, purchasing $19.5 million worth of ETH, WETH, and Aave-deposited ETH over the past week. This entity previously held $538 million in crypto assets at the 2021 market peak but had nearly exited all positions by mid-2022. The whale's recent buying activity is seen as a strategic "buy the dip" move, with ETH currently trading around $2,153—down over 56% from its all-time high. Analyst Ali Martinez suggests Ethereum may be entering a historical buy zone, as the MVRV Ratio recently dropped near 0.8—a level that preceded a 250% price surge in April 2025. This metric indicates the asset is deeply undervalued, potentially signaling a significant upward move.

bitcoinist03/22 20:32

Ethereum OG Whale Returns To Market With $19.5M ETH Buy — Details

bitcoinist03/22 20:32

4 Classic Bottom-Fishing Indicators All Failed, 3 New Indicators Point to the Bottom-Fishing Opportunity?

The article analyzes the shifting effectiveness of traditional Bitcoin bottom-buying indicators and proposes new metrics to identify potential market bottoms. Four classic indicators are discussed: - **MVRV Z-Score** (currently ~1.31) is distorted by institutional holdings, making historical "extreme negative" values unlikely. - **Ahr999 Index** has remained below 0.45 for nearly 50 days, but its long-term predictive power has diminished due to macro factors. - **SOPR Metrics** show STH-SOPR consistently below 1 (bearish), while LTH-SOPR remains between 0.75–1, indicating no full capitulation. - **Mayer Multiple** (price/200-day MA) has also stayed below 0.8 for 50 days but lacks consistent predictive strength. Three alternative indicators are suggested: 1. **CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed)**: Models a historical "iron bottom" near $45,000. 2. **NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)**: Currently at 0.2; negative values often signal market bottoms. 3. **Stablecoin Exchange Netflow**: Sustained inflows of USDT/USDC to exchanges typically precede rebounds by 2–4 weeks, but current outflows suggest no immediate bottom. The conclusion emphasizes that indicators are reference tools, not guarantees, and cautions that widespread public euphoria (e.g., mainstream adoption talks) may signal a sell opportunity rather than a buy.

Odaily星球日报03/19 13:22

4 Classic Bottom-Fishing Indicators All Failed, 3 New Indicators Point to the Bottom-Fishing Opportunity?